# Kalshi Economics — Mispricing Audit — 2026-07-08

Date: 2026-07-08
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-08-kalshi-economics-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Economics — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-07-08 · Category Economics (category-match mode) · Horizon 45 days · Capital $1,000 · Methodology v3.1 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic sizing; resolver-profiled probabilities). Picks count toward the public track record and are cleared for auto-copy.

## 1. How this was researched

**Mode: category-match.** `trading_events.category = 'Economics'` matched 1,139 active markets closing within 45 days on the live Kalshi mirror, so no theme-mode keyword search was needed. The latest 5-minute snapshot cycle was joined against those markets and the Stage-1 mechanical screen applied (24h volume ≥ 1,500, spread ≤ 5¢, not already ≥95/≤5, no announcer-noise markets, nothing on the already-published list). That left **42 liquid contracts collapsing into ~16 distinct questions**. Each survivor got the full Stage-2 treatment: rules text pulled from the mirror, 14-day intraday price history, live Kalshi orderbook, and primary-source news diligence (four parallel research sweeps: CPI data, gasoline/oil, the Maine Senate situation, and Musk/misc).

**Context that shaped everything this week:** the US–Iran / Strait of Hormuz war _re-escalated on July 7–8_ (tanker attacks, US strikes on 80+ targets, Trump declaring the June 17 MoU "over"). WTI rose ~5–7% and RBOB ~6% _today_, and every Kalshi gas market repriced violently intraday — which put the entire gas complex behind the Stage-3 "price already moved in the last 48h" screen. Separately, the June 17 MoU had crashed oil during June (AAA retail fell $4.24 → $3.83), setting up a rare _negative_ June CPI headline print. The deployable edge this run is concentrated in the **July 14 CPI release**.

**Stage-2.5 resolver checks earned their keep:** the single "safest-looking" candidate (gasoline CPI index > 342, offered at 97¢) turned out to resolve on the _seasonally adjusted_ FRED series CUSR0000SETB01 — not the NSA series the headline suggests. On NSA math it was a 14%-cushion lock; on the actual SA series my point estimate lands at **344.2, two points from the strike**. The pick was killed, and the same analysis produced a better trade on a sibling strike (Pick 3). Note: two Maine Senate nominee markets surfaced under the Economics category (upstream miscategorization); they were diligenced as found and rejected on their merits.

Already-published picks were excluded up front. The only direct overlap was the July Fed decision cluster (KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0 YES is live), so its siblings (H25, KXFED-26JUL-T3.75) were rejected as duplicates of a published thesis.

## 2. Markets reviewed

| Market | Question | Price (bid/ask) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.7 | Core CPI YoY > 2.7% (June) | 84/85 | PICK 1 — BUY YES |
| KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7 | Headline CPI YoY > 3.7% (June) | 66/67 | PICK 2 — BUY YES |
| KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T344 | Gasoline CPI (SA) > 344 (June) | 84/85 | PICK 3 — BUY NO (lottery) |
| KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T342 | Gasoline CPI (SA) > 342 (June) | 94/97 | REJECT — resolver reads SA; "lock" is negative-EV at ask |
| KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T345 | Gasoline CPI (SA) > 345 (June) | 41/43 | REJECT — coin-flip band |
| KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2 | CPI MoM > −0.2% (June) | 33/36 | REJECT — band screen (edge logged) |
| KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.3 | CPI MoM > −0.3% (June) | 78/91 | REJECT — no edge at ask, spread blew out |
| KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.700 | CPI NSA index > 334.700 (June) | 54/56 | REJECT — band screen (edge logged) |
| KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8 | CPI YoY _exactly_ 3.8% | 48/52 | REJECT — definitional, priced fair vs ladder |
| KXAAAGASM-26JUL31-3.80 | AAA gas > $3.80 on Jul 31 | 65/68 | REJECT — moved +35¢ today (48h rule) |
| KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-3.880 | AAA gas > $3.88 on Jul 13 | 36/38 | REJECT — moved +32¢ today (48h rule) |
| KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-TJAC | Troy Jackson is ME-Sen Dem nominee on Jul 31 | 47/48 | REJECT — coin-flip band, fluid politics |
| KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-SBEL / -NSHA | Bellows / Shah is nominee on Jul 31 | 20/21 · 16/17 | REJECT — tail band / edge within error |
| KXMUSKNW-26JUL31-T750 | Musk > $750B (Bloomberg, Jul 31) | 90/91 | REJECT — fairly priced |
| KXU3-26JUL-T4.2 | U-3 > 4.2% in July | 55/56 | REJECT — coin flip, no edge |
| KXTBCRUNCHWRAP-26AUG02-* | Crunchwrap avg price (July) | 63/64 | REJECT — unknowable resolver (Stage 2.5) |
| KXFED-26JUL-T3.75 (+H25) | Fed July decision cluster | 23/24 | EXCLUDED — duplicates published pick |

## 3. Picks — detail and thesis

### Pick 1 — KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.7 · BUY YES @ 0.86 · HIGH CONVICTION

**Will core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending June 2026?** Current 84 / 85 · my probability **94%** vs market-implied ~85% · entry band: **60–90¢ favorite** (86¢) · cluster cpi-june-report.

**Thesis.** Core CPI YoY printed **2.9%** in May (BLS, Jun 10). For NO, the printed June value must fall two tenths to ≤2.7 — requiring a June core MoM around +0.05% against a +0.23% year-ago base. Core has run +0.2 to +0.4 every month of this tariff-and-war inflation cycle (Apr +0.4, May +0.2), and the Cleveland Fed's June core nowcast is **+0.23% MoM / 2.85% YoY** — comfortably above the 2.75% rounding boundary. The June price data already exists; only the measurement is pending, and every input points the same way. Crucially, the June gasoline collapse _does not touch core_.

- May core CPI YoY 2.9%, core MoM +0.2% — BLS CPI news release, Jun 10, 2026.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast (Jul 8): June core MoM +0.23%, core YoY 2.85% — clevelandfed.org.
- Year-ago base: June 2025 core MoM ≈ +0.23% SA, so a flat-to-2.8/2.9 print needs nothing unusual.

**Resolver:** BLS CPI release, Jul 14 2026 8:30 ET; printed one-decimal core YoY vs 2.7; delay clause in rules. Priced risks: −1 pt (rounding-boundary measurement noise, release mechanics). **Cleanest way to lose:** a never-in-this-cycle collapse of June core to ≈0.0% MoM (used vehicles + shelter + services all soft at once).

Size: 81 contracts @ 86¢ limit = $69.66 (7.0% of capital; HIGH tier cap is 15%, cluster cap binds first) · max payout $81.00 · edge +8¢ · EV +9.3% (recorded, not used for sizing) · Liquidity at entry: yes 84/85, asks 107 @ 85 + 1,008 @ 86 (fill assured), vol24h 2,140, OI 3,043 · Price history: ground from ~50¢ (mid-June) to 84–86¢ — thesis partially absorbed; residual edge is the last 8–10¢ of a 94% event.

### Pick 2 — KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7 · BUY YES @ 0.67 · MEDIUM CONVICTION

**Will headline CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending June 2026?** Current 66 / 67 · my probability **76%** vs market-implied ~67% · entry band: **60–90¢ favorite** · cluster cpi-june-report.

**Thesis.** YES needs the printed YoY ≥ 3.8, i.e. a June NSA index ≥ 334.66 (May: 335.123; base June-2025: 322.561) — equivalently June SA MoM above roughly −0.22%. Both credible nowcasts sit clearly on the YES side: **Cleveland Fed −0.06% MoM / 3.92% YoY** and **Goldman −0.13% MoM**. The Kalshi MoM ladder is pricing a median near −0.19%, materially more deflationary than either. And the crowd's own books disagree with each other: the specialist gasoline-index ladder (Pick 3's market) implies June SA gasoline ≈ −9% MoM, which through a ~3.2% weight contributes ≈ −0.29pp; with Cleveland's +0.23% core that arithmetic gives headline ≈ **−0.08%**, not −0.19%. The MoM book appears to be over-extrapolating the June gas crash beyond what the hard EIA data supports; this market is the cleanest favorite-band expression of that.

- May CPI: YoY 4.2%, NSA index 335.123 — BLS release Jun 10 + BLS API CUUR0000SA0.
- Cleveland Fed nowcast Jul 8: June headline MoM −0.06%, YoY 3.92%. Goldman preliminary: −0.13% MoM (Yahoo Finance).
- June gasoline: EIA weekly regular retail fell $4.305 → $3.831 across June (eia.gov), fully captured in the nowcasts.

**Resolver:** BLS printed one-decimal YoY, Jul 14 8:30 ET; unambiguous, delay clause present. Priced risks: −2 pts (rounding boundary sits inside forecast error; possibility the MoM crowd knows a soft non-energy component I can't see). Those are inside the 76% number. **Cleanest way to lose:** CPI's own gasoline sample catches the intra-June collapse harder than EIA weekly averages imply, dragging SA MoM below −0.22%.

Size: 45 contracts @ 67¢ limit = $30.15 (3.0% of capital; MEDIUM tier cap 7%, cluster cap binds) · max payout $45.00 · edge +9¢ · EV +13.4% (recorded, not sizing) · Liquidity: yes 66/67, 134 @ 67 + 1,501 @ 68, vol24h 6,562, OI 156,347 · History: stable 65–73 for two weeks — no 48h-move contamination.

### Pick 3 — KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T344 · BUY NO @ 0.16 · LOW CONVICTION · explicit asymmetric lottery

**Will the June 2026 gasoline CPI index (SA, CUSR0000SETB01) print above 344?** Current yes 84 / 85 (NO costs ~16¢) · my probability the NO wins: **45%** vs market-implied ~16% · entry band: **<35¢ tail — deployed under the single lottery slot, capped at 1.6% of capital** · cluster cpi-june-report.

**Thesis — a variance disagreement with an overconfident book.** Hard inputs: May SA gasoline index 378.660 (FRED); June seasonal factor 1.0484 (stable to ±0.04% across 2023–25); EIA weekly retail gives a daily-weighted June/May decline of ≈ −9.1%. That maps to a June SA print of **≈ 344.2**. The strike ladder prices a cliff — T344 at 84, T345 at 42 — i.e. the book claims to know the print to within ±0.6 index points. But the CPI's own-outlet gasoline sample historically deviates from EIA-weekly-implied projections by ±1.5 points; and a plausible Monday-only EIA construction (May avg $4.479 vs June $4.050 = −9.59%) lands at **342.3**, six points below where the book is centered. At 16¢ the NO needs only ~16% to break even; my σ ≈ 1.6 around 344.2 puts it near a coin flip. This is priced as a lottery, not a conviction bet, precisely because the edge is a second-moment claim.

- FRED CUSR0000SETB01: May 2026 SA = 378.660; CUUR0000SETB01 NSA = 396.961 (fredgraph.csv, fetched today).
- June seasonal factor: NSA/SA = 1.0484 (2025), 1.0487 (2024), 1.0492 (2023); May 2026's factor matches May 2025 exactly → 2026 factors unchanged.
- EIA weekly regular retail: May Mondays 4.452/4.500/4.490/4.475; June 4.305/4.146/4.052/3.914/3.831 (eia.gov LeafHandler, release Jul 7).

**Resolver:** FRED/BLS SA series named explicitly in rules_secondary — verified directly; this same check is what killed the T342 YES "lock". Priced risks: −3 pts equivalent (all-grades vs regular-grade mix, May daily-average construction). **Cleanest way to lose:** the specialists are right — CPI's June sample tracks the mid-month average (~345) rather than my daily-weighted path, and the print lands 344.5–345.5. **Honesty note:** this leg's YES was bid up from ~59 to 84 _within the last hour_ — someone is actively buying the ladder today; and the market sits below the run's 1,500 vol24h screen (it entered via diligence on its liquid sibling T342). Both facts argue for the tiny size it got.

Size: 100 contracts @ 16¢ limit = $16.00 (1.6% of capital; ≤2% lottery cap, only tail this run) · max payout $100.00 · edge +29¢ · EV +181% (recorded — and pointedly NOT what sized it; it is the smallest position in the book) · Liquidity: yes 84/85, exactly ~100 contracts of NO available at 16¢ — size matched to the visible book, zero slippage tolerance · vol24h 557, OI 599 · History: traded 57–61 this morning, 84/85 now.

## 4. Recommended $1,000 portfolio

| # | Market | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | % cap | Conviction / band | Max payout | Edge | EV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.7 | YES | 86¢ | 81 | $69.66 | 7.0% | HIGH · 60–90¢ | $81.00 | +8¢ | +9.3% |
| 2 | KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7 | YES | 67¢ | 45 | $30.15 | 3.0% | MEDIUM · 60–90¢ | $45.00 | +9¢ | +13.4% |
| 3 | KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T344 | NO | 16¢ | 100 | $16.00 | 1.6% | LOW · tail (lottery slot) | $100.00 | +29¢ | +181% |
| Total deployed | 226 | $115.81 | 11.6% | Cash held: **$884.19 (88.4%)** | $226.00 | +$39.53 | +34.1%* |  |  |  |

* Blended EV is dominated by the lottery leg's recorded +181%; per v3 policy EV numbers are calibration data only — every position size above came from conviction tier + entry band + cluster cap, and the highest-EV pick is deliberately the smallest.

### Cluster exposure

| Cluster | Picks | Cost | % of capital | Cap (15%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cpi-june-report | 1, 2, 3 | $115.81 | 11.6% | $150 — OK (77% used) |

Yes — the whole book rides one release (BLS CPI, Jul 14, 8:30 ET). That is a deliberate, capped concentration: it was the only place in this category where the screens found defensible edge this week. Two mitigants: total exposure is under the 15% single-thesis cap, and the legs are _not_ all the same direction — Pick 3 (gasoline-soft) partially hedges Pick 2 (headline-firm): if gasoline surprises soft enough to kill the headline YES, the lottery pays 5.3:1 against it.

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Cost deployed | % of capital | Per-pick cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | $69.66 | 7.0% | 15% ($150) |
| MEDIUM | $30.15 | 3.0% | 7% ($70) |
| LOW | $16.00 | 1.6% | 3% ($30) / 2% lottery |

### Risk profile

- **Worst case (−$115.81, −11.6%):** soft core (≤2.7) AND soft headline (≤3.7) AND firm gasoline (>344) — an internally awkward combination (firm gas usually props the headline) I put at ~1–2%.
- **Realistic bad case (−$34.81):** headline lands exactly 3.7 with gasoline ~344.5 — Picks 2 and 3 lose, Pick 1 wins.
- **Most likely outcomes:** gasoline prints 344–346 → Picks 1+2 win, lottery loses: **+$10.19** (~35%); gasoline prints ≤344 → all three win: **+$110.19** (~36%).
- **Concentration:** one macro release; capped at 11.6% of capital with an internal hedge leg. 88.4% cash is a position — this category was mostly war-driven chaos and fair prices this week.

### Execution notes

- All limit orders, GTC through Jul 13 (all three markets close at the Jul 14 release). Do not chase: core above 87¢ or headline above 68¢ erases the sized edge; the T344 NO is strictly 16¢ — the visible book is exactly ~100 contracts and the leg was bid up this hour, so partial fills are acceptable and slippage is not.
- **Invalidation triggers:** (a) any BLS release-delay notice — exit nothing, but expect close-time extension per rules; (b) for Picks 2–3: EIA's monthly gasoline average or a revised weekly print implying a June/May decline shallower than −8.5% kills the T344 NO (and strengthens Pick 2) — rebalance toward headline YES; deeper than −10% strengthens the NO and endangers Pick 2.
- **Watchlist (no capital):** KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2 YES below 30¢ and KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.700 YES below 50¢ — both carry modeled edge but are band-blocked this run; the Jul-31 AAA gas ladder once the Hormuz headline volatility settles (re-evaluate after ~Jul 11 under the 48h rule).

## 5. What I rejected and why

All 15 rejects below are machine-logged in picks.json and shadow-tracked to settlement — if the rejects outperform the picks, the screen itself is the finding. Stage-3.5 entry-band cuts are marked **[BAND]**.

- **KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T342 — the audit's cautionary tale.** At first read (NSA index 396.96 in May, strike 342): a 14%-cushion lock at 97¢. The rules resolve on the _seasonally adjusted_ series: May SA is 378.66 and my June estimate is 344.2 ± 1.6 — the boundary is two points away, and YES at 97¢ is _negative_ EV (model ~90%). This is the v1 leaderboard lesson replayed: right about the world, nearly wrong about the resolver. The residual NO-tail (model ~10% vs 6¢) was passed over — inside model error, 135 contracts of depth, and the lottery slot went to the better-shaped T344.
- **KXUSGASCPI-26JUL14-T345 NO @ 59¢** — [BAND] same variance thesis as Pick 3, but expressed in the 35–60¢ coin-flip band without lock-grade conviction. Model 69%.
- **KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2 YES @ 36¢** — [BAND] my model says 64% (+28¢): the crowd's −0.19% MoM median looks too bearish against Cleveland (−0.06), Goldman (−0.13) and its own gasoline ladder. But a nowcast-vs-crowd dispute can never be HIGH conviction, and the 35–60 band requires HIGH. The shadow track will grade this screen.
- **KXCPINDEX-26JUL14-T334.700 YES @ 56¢** — [BAND] nearly the same boundary as Pick 2 (334.700 vs 334.657) trading 11¢ cheaper — a real cross-market inconsistency, but it sits in the coin-flip band, in a day-old market with a 232-contract book. Model 73%.
- **KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.3 YES @ 91¢** — model 91%, zero edge at the ask, and the live bid side collapsed to 78 (13¢ spread) while I watched.
- **KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8** — looked like a 25¢ mispricing vs the threshold ladder until the rules revealed it's an _"exactly 3.8%"_ bucket, not a threshold. Priced consistently (implied 42–47 vs 48/52). Definitional, not exploitable.
- **KXAAAGASM-26JUL31-3.80 YES @ 68¢ and KXAAAGASW-26JUL13-3.880 YES @ 38¢** — the Hormuz re-escalation repriced these +32–35¢ _today_; whatever edge existed was eaten before this audit began (Stage-3 48h rule). What remains is a war-path coin toss (model 63% and 45% respectively) in thin books.
- **KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-TJAC NO @ 53¢** — [BAND] after the Jul 6 assault allegation and Sanders' Jul 7 call to step aside, Jackson-at-47¢ requires both Platner's withdrawal by Jul 13 _and_ a ~100-member state committee choosing the Platner-camp favorite the party just publicly rebuffed. Model 68% for the NO — but it's the coin-flip band, committee politics is not lock-grade, and it correlates with an already-published Platner pick. SBEL YES @ 21¢ (model 19%, fair) and NSHA NO @ 84¢ (model 88%, edge inside handicapping error) also logged.
- **KXMUSKNW-26JUL31-T750 YES @ 91¢** — Bloomberg printed $1.01T on Jun 30, but SPCX (3–5% float) produced a −29%/week drawdown in June; ~90% is fair. Model 90%, no edge.
- **KXU3-26JUL-T4.2** — genuine coin flip (June printed 4.2 on falling participation; payrolls decelerating; claims improving). No consensus exists yet, no defensible side.
- **KXTBCRUNCHWRAP-26AUG02-T6.67** — Stage-2.5 mandatory reject: resolves to a _private_ vendor feed (Spice Data), no public history, first-ever settlement month of the series. Unknowable resolver > any forecast.
- **KXFED-26JUL-T3.75 / KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25** — same thesis as the already-live published pick (Fed holds in July); re-emitting would duplicate feed exposure. The H0/H25 pair sums to ~100¢ — no structural arb either.

## 6. Sources

- BLS CPI news release (May 2026 report, Jun 10) — [bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm); release schedule — [bls.gov/schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm); BLS API series CUUR0000SA0, CUUR0000SETB01.
- FRED series data (fetched 2026-07-08) — [CUSR0000SETB01 (gasoline CPI, SA)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETB01), [CUUR0000SETB01 (NSA)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SETB01).
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting (Jul 8) — [clevelandfed.org](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting); Goldman June CPI preview via [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/goldman-expects-inflation-ease-2027-135200615.html).
- EIA weekly retail gasoline — [EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W) (release Jul 7, 2026); EIA July STEO — [eia.gov/outlooks/steo](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/).
- AAA gas prices — [gasprices.aaa.com](https://gasprices.aaa.com/); AAA newsroom (Jun 18, Jul 2 releases).
- Hormuz re-escalation: [Al Jazeera liveblog (Jul 8)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/8/iran-war-live-us-bombs-sirik-qeshm-bandar-abbas-over-hormuz-attacks); [CNN (Jul 8)](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/08/business/iran-oil-trump-strait-of-hormuz); [Al Jazeera (Jun 17 MoU)](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/17/oil-prices-continue-slide-amid-hopes-for-peace-opening-of-strait-of-hormuz); [Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis); [TradingEconomics crude/RBOB quotes (Jul 8)](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil).
- Maine Senate: [BDN primary results](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/); [CNN allegation (Jul 6)](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/06/us/graham-platner-racicot-allegation-maine-invs); [PBS: Sanders (Jul 7)](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sen-bernie-sanders-says-graham-platner-should-drop-out-of-the-race-after-sexual-assault-allegation); [BDN: Jackson exploratory (Jul 7)](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/07/07/politics/elections/troy-jackson-exploring-graham-platner-replacement/); [Maine Public: replacement process](https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-07-07/the-behind-the-scenes-scramble-begins-to-replace-graham-platner-as-he-weighs-his-future); [WaPo: deadlines (21-A M.R.S. §374-A)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/07/graham-platner-has-six-days-decide-whether-drop-out-heres-how-that-would-work/).
- Jobs: [CNBC June jobs report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html); FRED UNRATE/PAYEMS/ICSA; [DOL weekly claims](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf).
- Musk: Kalshi settled markets KXMUSKNW-26MAY31/-26JUN30 (Bloomberg $735B → $1.01T); [Wikipedia: Wealth of Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_of_Elon_Musk); [CNBC SpaceX IPO](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html); [Fortune (Jun 23)](https://fortune.com/2026/06/23/spacex-share-fluctuation-elon-musk-net-worth-trillionaire/).
- Market data: Kalshi mirror query API (schema-verified; 1,139 Economics markets, latest 5-min snapshots) and Kalshi public API api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2 (rules_secondary, live orderbooks, Jul 8 ~16:00–16:30 UTC).

**Data:** Kalshi mirror DB (5-minute snapshots through 2026-07-08 16:23 UTC), Kalshi public trade API, BLS/FRED/EIA/AAA primary data, cited press. **Method:** v3.1 — conviction-weighted and EV-agnostic sizing, entry-band screen, 15% cluster cap, resolver-profiled probabilities with priced deductions; rejects machine-logged and shadow-tracked. **Disclaimer:** all probabilities are subjective estimates by an automated research process; prediction-market contracts can and do resolve to zero; nothing here is investment advice. Picks in this report enter the public track record and the auto-copy feed.