# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted) — 2026-08-05

Date: 2026-08-05
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-05-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit Keel v4 · archetype-targeted

Run date 2026-08-05 · Universe: targets.json (120 pre-classified series, 70 Tier-1 / 50 Tier-2) · Horizon 45 days · Capital $2,500

## Verdict: 0 picks — 100% cash $2,500 reserve

This is a correctly-priced week, and v4 says to say so. The 45-day window is dominated by one Senate floor
  week (Aug 3–7, recess Aug 10 → after Labor Day) and one hot news cycle (Trump vs. Pirro). Both are being traded
  by liquid, specialist-dense books that repriced faster than any thesis we could form from public sources: the
  Blanche confirmation rung moved 12¢ → 85¢ in 72 hours as the committee standoff repaired; the Pirro Sep-1 rung
  round-tripped 46¢ → 71¢ → 30¢ around the Oval Office confrontation. Every Stage-2 survivor failed the
  edge, band, or 48h-move gate and is logged below with a committed probability, so the reject log shadow-tracks
  this run's judgment.

Stage-0 universe53open target-series markets ≤ Sep 19
Mechanical cuts4942 dead books · 6 tail · 1 deep-fav
Stage-2 diligenced4+1 cluster runner-up logged
Picks0cash is a position

## Market environment

- **Senate:** in session through ~Sat Aug 8; August recess begins Aug 10 and runs through the week of
        Labor Day (Sep 7). Every "before Sep 1" institutional-process market is therefore all-or-nothing on
        _this_ floor week. Thune filed cloture Aug 5 (10:47 a.m.) on the CR vehicle (H.R. 6500), the Collins
        substitute, the Protect College Sports Act motion, and **Todd Blanche for Attorney General** — and on
        zero judicial nominees.
- **DOJ:** Blanche cleared Judiciary 12–10 on Aug 4 after rescinding the $1.8B "anti-weaponization fund"
        to win over Cornyn and Tillis; Collins is a declared floor NO and reporting (ms.now/CNN) says he can lose
        only one more Republican, with Murkowski and Cassidy declining to state positions. First floor vote
        expected Fri Aug 7, final vote Sat Aug 8.
- **Pirro:** Trump confronted her Aug 3–4 over the Reflecting Pool filing, said she "choked," and is
        reported to be weighing removal — but did not fire her, and no successor is being floated.
- **Judges:** zero Article III confirmations Aug 1–5 (uscourts.gov); the pre-recess blitz landed Jul 22–24
        (Flowers, Martin, Pozos, Traynor).

## Rejected after full diligence 5 logged + 1 active-pick exclusion

### KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 — Blanche confirmed as AG before Sep 1 confirmation/enact

Considered: YES @ 86¢ effective · cluster blanche-ag-confirmation · book 84 / 85, 18.6k vol24h, 41.1k OI · Reason: no edge vs. efficient book

**Prob: 88% pre-market → 84% final** (blended toward a very liquid book). The bull case is real and
    mostly mechanical: committee 12–10 after the holdouts' named demands were met, cloture filed this morning,
    recess as forcing function, floor votes scheduled Fri/Sat. But the residual 15¢ is not free: Collins is a
    declared NO with a margin of one; Murkowski and Cassidy are uncommitted; a withdrawal resolves NO
    immediately (dated resolver clarification in `rules_secondary`); and any slip past Saturday is a
    mechanical NO because the Senate does not return before Sep 1. Deductions: floor defection −8, schedule
    collapse into the CR fight −4, withdrawal −2. Fair ≈ 84 vs. 86¢ effective entry (only 13 contracts visible at
    85; real depth at 86) → edge ≤ 0 in the thin-favorite band. The book already repriced 12¢ → 85¢ on the exact
    thesis in 72h.

Precedents consulted: KXAGCONF-26-JUN15 (NO — price the clock from formal
    transmittal, 5–6 week floor); KXAGCONF-26-JUL01 (NO — "first announced pick" keys to the current vacancy);
    KXBILLS-HOUS (YES — enactment mechanics beat headlines); KXRECNCH-26-JUN06 (NO — upstream passage does not
    compress the other chamber's floor schedule).

### KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 — Pirro announces departure before Sep 1 multi-news-other

Considered: NO @ 70–71¢ effective · cluster pirro-out · book 29 / 30, 14.5k vol24h, 18.7k OI · Reason: 48h move already captured / public-info-only

**Prob (YES): 25% pre-market → 27% final.** The departure-archetype precedent corpus leans NO: not fired
    at the confrontation, no successor floated, principal fighting to keep the office ($25k retention bonuses),
    and "considering removal" sourcing has never resolved this archetype YES. But the market got there first —
    the rung spiked 46¢ → 71¢ on meeting day and collapsed to 30¢ within 24 hours of the "not fired" reporting.
    Selling the spike was the trade on Aug 4; at 70–71¢ effective today the residual edge is 2–3¢ of pure archetype
    base-rate against a specialist-dense book, in a market where a single Truth Social post resolves YES
    (announcement counts regardless of effective date). That is a public-info-only thesis inside slippage.

Precedents consulted: KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO — "matter of time" sourcing is not a
    vacancy; a principal publicly fighting back holds); KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUL01 (NO — absent a named successor,
    scandal doesn't move this archetype); KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUN01 (sell the pre-event spike, don't hold through);
    KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB (YES — announcement/last-day mechanics).

### KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG06 — Pirro out before Aug 6 multi-news-other

Book 5 / 7, 1.8k vol24h · cluster pirro-out · Reason: entry band (YES 7¢ < 40¢ floor; NO 93–95¢ ≥ 90¢)

**Prob (YES): 5%.** Requires an announcement within hours. Nothing pending as of the Aug 5 afternoon
    news cycle. Both sides fall outside the v4 entry bands; tails are 0-for-8 lifetime.

### KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG07 — Pirro out before Aug 7 multi-news-other

Book 4 / 5, 24.6k vol24h · cluster pirro-out · Reason: mechanical tail cut (YES ask ≤ 5¢) + cluster runner-up

**Prob (YES): 7%.** Same thesis as the Aug 6 rung with one more day of Trump-whim exposure. Logged so the
    cluster shadow-tracks.

### KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 — ≥2 federal judges confirmed in August confirmation/enact

Book 7 / 10, 605 vol24h · cluster judges-aug-count · Reason: entry band (YES 10¢ < 40¢ floor; NO 90–93¢ deep-favorite)

**Prob (YES): 15% pre-market → 13% final.** Verified zero eligible confirmations Aug 1–5; the July blitz
    (Flowers, Martin, Pozos, Traynor) landed Jul 22–24 and does not count; recess Aug 10 → Sep 7 makes this week
    the entire August window; and Thune's Aug 5 cloture filings included no judicial nominees (judges are excluded
    from en bloc batching, and CIT/Tax Court confirmations don't count under `rules_secondary`). The only
    YES path is two judicial cloture petitions by Thursday amid a CR fight — possible, not probable. Slight
    positive EV at 10¢ but hard-banned; logged to shadow-track the <40¢ rule.

Precedents consulted: no series precedents in store (noted); archetype analogues
    KXRECNCH-26-JUN06 (count scheduled session days, not calendar days) and KXAGCONF-26-JUN01 (a rung inside a
    mechanical dead window is a structural NO).

### KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-AUG08 — Senate recorded vote on CLARITY Act before Aug 8 existing pick

Reason: already an active pick — excluded from new picks by hard rule.

Observed in passing this run: Thune publicly committed to a CLARITY Act vote before the recess —
    consistent with the live YES position.

## Stage-0 mechanical cut log (49 of 53)

| Cut rule | Markets | Notable examples |
|---|---|---|
| Live volume24h < 500 (zero-volume phantom-edge rule) | 42 | All KXSENATECONFIRM legs, KXLAKECONF, KXKASHOUT-SEP01, KXLEAVEWALZ, KXHEGSETH monthlies (some had quotes but dead books), IPO series, most Banxico/BoC strikes, KXIMPEACH-SEP01 (421), KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT (371) |
| YES ask ≤ 5¢ (tail) | 6 | KXPIRROOUT-AUG07, KXIPOANTHROPIC-SEP01, KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-SEP01, KXHEGSETHOUT-SEP01, KXALITOOUT-SEP01, KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-26SEP |
| YES bid ≥ 95¢ (deep favorite) | 1 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-HOLD (96 bid) |

The August recess explains the dead books: with the Senate about to leave and no scheduled
  catalysts, 42 of 53 target-series markets traded fewer than 500 contracts in 24h. The 98-of-136 zero-volume
  lesson from the resolved record makes these hard cuts, not judgment calls.

## Portfolio & risk

| Cluster | Best leg | Decision | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| `blanche-ag-confirmation` | KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 YES | Reject — no edge at 86¢ | $0 |
| `pirro-out` | KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 NO | Reject — 48h move captured | $0 |
| `judges-aug-count` | KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 YES | Reject — band (<40¢) | $0 |
| **Cash** | **$2,500 (100%)** |  |  |

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Positions | Cost | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| MEDIUM | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| Cash reserve | — | $2,500 | 100% |

### Execution notes

- No orders this run. 40–70% cash is expected in an efficient week; 100% is the honest reading of this one —
        both live theses (Blanche, Pirro) were repriced by the market inside 72 hours, before we could hold an edge.
- Watch items for the next run: if the Blanche floor vote slips past Saturday without a withdrawal, the
        Sep-1 rung's NO side enters the core band with a mechanical thesis (Senate out until Sep 7). If Thune files
        judicial cloture Thu/Fri, KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 YES becomes a live (but still band-blocked) signal — the
        reject log will grade the <40¢ rule either way.
- Two precedent rows written back (`KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG05`, `KXAGCONF-26-AUG01`):
        the not-fired-deflation pattern and the transactional-standoff-repairs-fast pattern.

## Method note (v4)

Universe restricted to the pre-classified target allowlist; probabilities committed before
  studying the book, then blended; Stage-1 precedent retrieval before opinion formation; one leg per cluster;
  entry bands 40–84¢ core / 85–89¢ half-size / hard rejects outside; sizing EV-agnostic (HIGH 15% · MEDIUM 7% of
  capital, halved in the thin-favorite band), depth-capped at ⅓ of visible contracts; every non-pick survivor
  logged with side, price, and probability so the record can grade the rules as well as the picks.
  Data: mirror DB via query API (schema-first), Kalshi public API (`*_fp` fields, candlesticks endpoint),
  primary-source news (senate.gov daily press, uscourts.gov confirmation listing, NPR/WaPo/NBC/CNN/WTOP).

  Keel v4 · run 2026-08-05 · report slug `kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4` · $2,500 capital, $0 deployed.