Universe (targets file)
116 series
A thin week, and the discipline says that is fine. Of 96 open markets in the pre-classified target series closing by Oct 3, only five cleared the hard liquidity/spread/price floors (98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books, and that cohort lost money — the floor exists for a reason). Of the five, two died mechanically on the entry bands, two died on honest two-sided uncertainty, and one — NO on Anthropic IPO-confirmed-before-Oct-1 at 75¢ — carries a specific, precedent-backed, rules-text edge worth deploying at MEDIUM size. 93% of capital stays in cash.
Market: "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" — before Oct 1, 2026 leg. YES 25/26¢, vol24h 5,344 (specialist-dense), OI 115,124.
Resolver profile. Kalshi resolves this series on three purely mechanical triggers, any one of which fires YES immediately: (1) SEC declares the S-1 effective, (2) the IPO is priced, (3) a securities exchange assigns a ticker. The headline word "announce" in the title is a trap — the rules text, and this resolver's own record, say announcements do not count.
Evidence (primary sources). Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft S-1 on June 1, 2026 (Anthropic press release). As of Aug 19, SEC EDGAR company search returns no public Anthropic registrant and no public S-1 — verified directly this run. All reporting (Bloomberg, CNBC, seekingalpha, Aug 18) points to an October 2026 Nasdaq listing led by Goldman/JPM/MS. On a normal timeline — public flip ~3–4 weeks before listing, roadshow, pricing the night before trading — effectiveness and pricing land in October, after this market's cutoff.
Probability. Pre-market NO 88% (YES 12%) → final NO 84%, blended toward a liquid specialist book sitting at 25¢ YES. Resolver-risk deduction: −4 pts for the "exchange has assigned a ticker" clause — if the public flip lands in September naming a proposed Nasdaq symbol, a loose reading could fire early. The strict reading (an application "under the symbol X" is not exchange assignment) and the SpaceX precedent (all three triggers fired together at pricing, not at the flip) both cut against that, hence a small deduction rather than a reject. World risk — pricing pulled forward to Sep 29–30 in the "race against OpenAI" — is why this is MEDIUM, not HIGH.
48h price-move check. YES moved 20¢ → 25¢ on Aug 18–19. Explained: a headline burst (super-voting shares for CEO Amodei, pre-IPO credit facility past $10B, "Anthropic steps up IPO prep") — all IPO-preparation news, none of it a resolution trigger. This is the identical announcement-is-not-resolution dynamic the June precedent documented, when 130k contracts repriced YES 5¢→1–2¢ after the confidential-filing headline failed to resolve anything. The move is the mispricing, not a warning.
| Entry context | Value | Sizing | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| YES bid / ask | 25¢ / 26¢ | Conviction cap (MEDIUM, 7%) | $175.00 |
| NO limit (crosses YES bid) | 75¢ | Depth cap (⅓ × 1,005) | 335 contracts |
| Depth at/below limit | 1,005 contracts | Recommended contracts | 233 |
| Volume 24h / OI | 5,344 / 115,124 | Cost = max loss | $174.75 |
| Slippage vs last | ≤1¢ ✓ | Max win | $58.25 |
Prob: 42% YES pre-market → 46% final. The most interesting market of the week, and an honest pass. Both chambers passed CRs unusually early — the House's H.R. 9770 (through Dec 4) on July 21, 220–205; the Senate's version (through Dec 11, plus a rider delaying the OMB grants rule) on Aug 8, 90–6 — so only House concurrence and a signature remain, and midterm pressure favors clearing the deck early. Against that: the White House opposes the Senate's OMB rider, the House GOP bill omits it, Johnson faces conference pressure to ping-pong, and in the last decade only FY2015 (Sep 19, 2014) beat a Sep 26 cutoff — Congress spends every day the deadline gives it whenever anything is contested. Reject: 40–59¢ band admits HIGH conviction only; this is MEDIUM both ways.
Prob: ~91% YES. Probably the right side, but the market failed the Stage-0 floors (vol24h 331 < 500; spread 6¢ > 5¢) and is the cluster runner-up to the Sep 26 leg in any case. Reject: liquidity floor + one leg per cluster (fy27-cr-timing), and no leg deploys.
Prob: 72% YES pre-market → 74% final. The Aug 14 Reuters sources story ("strong chance" of a September hike, possibly at a faster pace) is already the price at 82–85¢. The same story's "more aggressive pace" language is a live tail against this exact-25bp leg (a 50bp move resolves it NO), the meeting is a month out, and the precedent store's closest analogue — KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25, where a hike priced to 36–38% resolved NO — warns against paying up for leak-driven pricing into a central-bank meeting. YES at 85¢ needs ~90%+ true probability at the half-size thin-favorite band; I have 74%. NO at ~18¢ effective is below the 40¢ floor. Reject: no edge on either side.
Prob: ~8% YES. NO effective entry is 91–92¢ (≥90¢ is the hard reject band — the record's worst loss is the permanent memorial) and YES at 9¢ is below the 40¢ floor. Reject: deep-favorite band, both sides mechanically excluded.
Prob: ~3% YES. Rules require an unambiguous, definitive signed agreement (Musk speculation explicitly excluded), so YES is a tail — but the trade dies mechanically anyway: NO at 93–95¢ is in the ≥90¢ reject band and YES at 7¢ is under the 40¢ floor. Reject: band.
| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost (max loss) | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 | NO | 75¢ | 233 | $174.75 | 7.0% |
| Cash | $2,325.25 | 93.0% | |||
| Ticker | Entry | Model prob | Edge | EV/contract | EV (position) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 (NO) | 75¢ | 84% | +9¢ | +9¢ (12%) | +$20.97 |
| Cluster | Deployed leg | Runners-up (logged rejects) |
|---|---|---|
| anthropic-ipo-timing | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 NO | SEP01 leg cut at Stage 0 (ask 1¢) |
| fy27-cr-timing | none deployed | SEP26 leg (band/conviction), OCT01 leg (liquidity floor) |
| boj-sep26 | none deployed | H25 leg (no edge) |
| Bucket | Cost at risk | % of capital | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | $0.00 | 0% | nothing cleared the HIGH bar this week |
| MEDIUM | $174.75 | 7.0% | single NO position, core band, specialist book with a specific rules edge |
| Cash / reserve | $2,325.25 | 93.0% | well above the 10% reserve floor; 40–70% cash is expected in an efficient week — this one is thinner than that, and that is the honest read |
Universe restricted to the pre-classified targets file (116 series; Tier 1 worked first). Hard floors: vol24h ≥ 500 live, spread ≤ 5¢, 5¢ < YES ask, YES bid < 95¢, no existing-pick tickers. Probabilities committed before opening the book, then blended. Precedent store consulted per candidate (same-series rows existed for KXIPOANTHROPIC; archetype rows for the BoJ ladder via KXFEDDECISION/KXCBDECISIONCANADA; none for KXGOVTFULLFUND — cold derivation used). Entry bands: ≥90¢ and <40¢ hard rejects; 40–59¢ HIGH-only; 85–89¢ half size. One leg per cluster. Sizing EV-agnostic: HIGH 15% / MEDIUM 7% of capital, depth-capped at ⅓ of visible contracts at the limit.
Sources: Anthropic press release (confidential draft S-1, Jun 1, 2026); SEC EDGAR company search (no public S-1, checked Aug 19, 2026); Bloomberg Aug 18 (super-voting shares; credit facility); CNBC Aug 18; congress.gov / GovTrack (H.R. 9770 passed House Jul 21, 2026); Senate CR passed 90–6 Aug 8, 2026 (CBS News, Sen. Cramer press release, NACo); Forbes/The Hill/GovExec (OMB grants-rule rider); Reuters via Investing.com/Yahoo Aug 14 (BoJ September hike sources story); FXStreet (Reuters July poll, 86% see 1.25% by end-Q4).