# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-07-14

Date: 2026-07-14
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-14-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

---
# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-07-14 · 1 pick triggered · 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip

## Will Samuel Alito announce his departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?

KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01 · closes 2026-08-01 03:59Z · source audit

NO
capital_free ≥95¢
thesis: intact
decision: EXIT @ 95¢

Entry86¢
Now (exec)95¢
Peak95.5¢
P&L+9¢ (+10.5%)
My prob (NO)96%
Market implies~95–96%

**What changed:** the thesis was confirmed, not challenged. The [WSJ reported (July 10)](https://www.rawstory.com/stringr/samuel-alito-2677205402/) that Alito has hired a full roster of four law clerks for the October 2026 term and that people close to him don't expect a summer or fall retirement — corroborated by [David Lat's clerk-hiring watch](https://davidlat.substack.com/p/supreme-court-clerk-hiring-october-term-ot-2026-2027-scotus-clerkships-2). The term-end window passed with nothing but the [retracted NPR report](https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-public-editor/2026/06/30/g-s1-131107/npr-retracts-story-about-alito-retirement), and the conservative-media "genuine announcement coming" chatter produced nothing in 12 days.

**Why exit anyway:** at 95¢ the edge is fully harvested — my ~96% equals what the price implies. Eighteen days remain to close, over the ~7-day threshold for riding the last cents, and the tail isn't strictly zero: Kennedy hired a full clerk slate in 2018 and retired anyway, and the death clause resolves at "last fair price" rather than a sure NO. Five cents over 18 days on 96% odds is roughly fee-level EV; we would not open this position today at this price. Liquidity is fine — 542 contracts resting at the 95¢ NO bid, 3,000+ at 94¢.

signal #191 · run 2026-07-01-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · placed 2026-07-02 · YES quotes at review: 4¢ bid / 5¢ ask

Sentinel position-review desk · decisions.json emitted alongside this report · quotes fetched live from Kalshi trade-api at review time.