# Kalshi Elections — Mispricing Audit (2026-06-08)

Date: 2026-06-08
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-08-kalshi-elections-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Elections — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-06-08 · Category **Elections** · Horizon **45 days** · Suggested book **$1,000** · 3 picks · 1 high-conviction

Bottom line. Elections is a thin category this week. The June 9 Maine and California primaries, plus the June 2 California/LA primary "AP-call timing" markets, have already resolved or fully priced. After screening 49 active markets closing inside 45 days, exactly one is both liquid and genuinely mispriced — a NO on Graham Platner dropping out of the Maine Senate race. Two thinner satellites round out the book. I am deploying $707 of $1,000 and holding the rest as reserve; forcing more capital into stale order books would cost more in slippage than the edge is worth.

## 1 · How this was researched

1. **Universe.** Queried the live Kalshi mirror (read-only SQL) for every `trading_markets` row joined to `trading_events` where `category = 'Elections'`, `status = 'active'`, and `close_time` within 45 days of 2026-06-08. **49 markets.**
2. **Screen.** Pulled the latest `market_snapshots` per ticker for price/spread/volume, then cross-checked every survivor against the live Kalshi public API (`/markets` + `/orderbook`) because the mirror's snapshots lag. Cut markets with 24h volume < 1,500, spreads > 5¢, "what will X say"/mention noise, and anything already fully priced (YES bid ≥ 95¢ or ask ≤ 5¢).
3. **Diligence.** For each survivor: read the full `rules_primary` + `rules_secondary` resolution text, pulled 14-day intraday price history, hit the live order book for depth, and grounded a probability in primary-source news (NYT/NBC/CNN/AP-affiliate reporting, the Portland Press Herald, Maine election statute, and on-record quotes from the principals).
4. **Reject.** Threw out anything where the rules could flip on a definition, where the "edge" was an unknowable tail, where I could not pin the exact polling-aggregator value a market resolves against, or where the book was too thin to enter without ≥3¢ of slippage.

Every number below is either a query result or carries a cited source. Probabilities are subjective. Each contract resolves to $1 or $0.

## 2 · Markets reviewed

| Ticker | Question | YES bid/ask | 24h vol | OI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26 | Platner drops out (Maine Sen) before Jul 14 | 14 / 15 | 38,116 | 140,723 | Pick · BUY NO |
| KXTRUMPCOLLINS-26JUN16 | Trump endorses Collins (GA Sen) before Jun 16 | 70 / 75 | 0 | 502 | Pick · BUY YES |
| KXMILLSPLATNER-…-JUL01 | Mills endorses Platner before Jul 1 | 9 / 10 | 0 | 3,618 | Pick · BUY NO |
| KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01 | Díaz-Canel leaves office before Jul 1 | 12 / 13 | 938 | 63,978 | Reject · no edge |
| KXELECTIRAN-26JUL01 | Iran holds presidential election before Jul 1 | 2 / 3 | 1,521 | 28,096 | Reject · priced |
| KXTRUMPVH-26JUN12-T39.9 | Trump approval above 39.9% on Jun 12 | 26 / 27 | 238 | 953 | Reject · unpinnable |
| KXGENERICBALLOT…-T6.2 | Generic ballot D−R above 6.2% on Jun 12 | 29 / 32 | 192 | 442 | Reject · unpinnable |
| KXFETTERMANSWITCH-… | Fetterman leaves Democratic party before Jul 1 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 6,401 | Reject · priced |
| KXLAIOUT-LCHI-26JUL01 | Lai Ching-te leaves office before Jul 1 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 1,806 | Reject · priced |
| KXAPCALL… (11 mkts) | When AP calls CA Gov / LA Mayor primary | 0 / 1 | — | — | Reject · resolved |
| KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-… (8) | How many states Trump visits in June | — | 0 | ~300 | Reject · thin/noise |
| KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-… (4) | June Fed rate + dissents combo | — | ≤9 | — | Reject · thin |
| KXPANAMATRAFFIC-… (7) | May Panama Canal transits (miscategorized) | — | ≤66 | — | Reject · off-topic |
| KXPRATTCONCEDE-… | Spencer Pratt concedes LA mayoral primary | 2 / 99 | 186 | 1,256 | Reject · noise |

49 active Elections markets within horizon; table shows the screened survivors plus representative reject buckets. Prices in ¢, from the live Kalshi API at report time.

## 3 · Picks — detail & thesis

Ordered by conviction (how _defensible_ the edge is — source quality, rules clarity, book depth), highest first. Note: high conviction ≠ high EV. The flagship has a modest 4¢ edge but is extremely defensible; the satellites have larger percentage edges but real execution risk.

 PICK 1 

### KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26 · BUY NO @ 0.87 · High conviction

Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race before Jul 14, 2026?

Current: YES 0.14 / NO 0.86 · last 0.14
My fair value: YES ≈0.10 / NO ≈0.90
Action: BUY NO, limit 0.87 (work the 0.86 offer first)
Edge: ≈ +4¢ / +4.7% per contract
Liquidity: 24h vol 38,116 · OI 140,723
Close: 2026-07-14 (tracks the statutory withdrawal deadline)

**Mispricing thesis.** A primary winner who is publicly backed by the Senate Democratic leader and who has flatly refused to quit almost never withdraws inside five weeks. YES at 14¢ over-prices the scandal tail; the price already _peaked and faded_ on exactly this news.

**Evidence (cited):**

- Platner leads the **June 9 (tomorrow)** Democratic primary by a large margin and is "widely expected to win the nomination" to face Sen. Susan Collins ([NPR, Jun 5](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/05/nx-s1-5847926/platner-controversy-senate-maine-primary-election); [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine,_2026_(June_9_Democratic_primary))).
- Chuck Schumer, _after_ the scandal broke: **"I endorsed Graham Platner. We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate."** No mass exodus of his endorsers ([NBC News, Jun 2](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/democrats-new-graham-platner-controversy-maine-rcna348538)).
- Platner himself says he has **"not once"** considered dropping out and "vows to stay" despite the New York Times piece quoting three ex-girlfriends and the "Totenkopf" tattoo allegation ([The Hill, Jun](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5911240-platner-maine-senate-allegations/)).
- The market window is deliberate: under Maine law a nominee can be replaced only if the primary winner withdraws by the **second Monday in July (Jul 13)**; this contract closes Jul 14. So the question is precisely "does he use that exit?" ([Portland Press Herald, Jun 4](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/06/04/if-graham-platner-wins-the-democratic-nomination-could-he-be-replaced-on-the-ballot/)).

**Tail risk (the single cleanest way this loses):** a _new_ disqualifying revelation lands and party leadership flips from "stay" to "go" before the July 13 deadline, and Platner personally agrees to step aside. That is the only path — losing the primary or being attacked does _not_ count as "dropping out" under the rules, and incapacitation resolves NO. The scandal is live and developing, which is why this is a 10% event and not a 3% one.

**Price history (14-day).** Opened ~10¢ on Jun 1; spiked to **57¢ intraday on Jun 2** on the NYT exposé, ran to 26-30¢ on Jun 4-5 as OI built from 21k → 140k on 100k+ daily volume, then **faded back to 13-16¢** by Jun 6-8 once he dug in and Schumer reaffirmed. Last 48h flat at 12-14¢ — my NO is the settled post-fade consensus, not a fresh contrarian fade. (source: `market_snapshots` daily roll-up.)

**Book depth.** NO is deep: 327 contracts at 0.86, then 6,752 at 0.87 and 9,313 at 0.88. A 650-lot fills at a ~0.866 blended price — well under 3¢ slippage.

 PICK 2 

### KXTRUMPCOLLINS-26JUN16 · BUY YES @ 0.72 · Low conviction

Will Donald Trump endorse Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate race before Jun 16, 2026?

Current: YES 0.70 / 0.75 ask · last 0.69
My fair value: YES ≈0.78
Action: BUY YES, limit 0.72 — do not pay the 0.75 ask
Edge: ≈ +6¢ / +8.3% at the limit
Liquidity: 24h vol 0 (stale) · OI 502 · spread 5¢
Close: 2026-06-16 (runoff day) — tight 8-day window

**Mispricing thesis.** Trump's own 2024 high command has quietly taken over Collins' runoff campaign — the strongest possible tell that an endorsement is coming — yet the order book is frozen at a stale 70¢ bid that is _below_ where the market traded two weeks ago.

**Evidence (cited):**

- Trump 2024 pollster **Tony Fabrizio** (senior strategist), chief data strategist **Tim Saler**, and battleground strategist **Chip Englander** have all joined Collins' campaign for the June 16 runoff — "the clearest indication yet that Trump may be leaning toward endorsing Collins" ([Axios, May 27](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/27/mike-collins-georgia-senate-race-trump)).
- Collins is "pushing for Trump's endorsement and has declined to break with him"; the field had zero Trump endorsements through the May 19 first round ([Washington Times](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/may/16/georgia-gop-senate-primary-five-candidates-zero-trump-endorsements/); [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/georgia-senate-republican-primary-winners-election-race-ossoff-rcna345008)).
- Price context: this contract traded **75-84¢ in late May**, then went to a stale **69-70¢ bid with zero volume for six straight days** (Jun 3-8) — the discount looks like neglect, not new information. (`market_snapshots`.)

**Tail risk (cleanest loss):** Trump simply stays neutral in a contested runoff (he often waits), or backs Derek Dooley, and the 8-day window closes with no Truth Social post. Hiring his staff is a strong signal but not a guarantee of a _public_ endorsement by a hard date.

**Execution.** This is a **limit-only, may-not-fill** position. Rest 150 lots at 0.72 between the 0.70 bid and 0.75 ask; the edge exists only at ≤0.73. If a Truth Social endorsement drops, the market gaps to ~95¢ — by then it is too late to chase, so the entire edge is in buying the stale book _ahead_ of the post.

 PICK 3 

### KXMILLSPLATNER-26NOV03-JUL01 · BUY NO @ 0.91 · Low conviction

Will Janet Mills publicly endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before Jul 1, 2026?

Current: YES 0.09 / NO 0.91 · last 0.09
My fair value: YES ≈0.05 / NO ≈0.95
Action: BUY NO, limit 0.91 (take what is offered)
Edge: ≈ +4¢ / +4.4% per contract
Liquidity: 24h vol 0 · OI 3,618 · book thin (~34 near fair)
Close: 2026-07-01

**Mispricing thesis.** Mills suspended her own Senate campaign but is pointedly _staying on the ballot_ as the party's replacement-in-waiting and refusing to endorse Platner amid his scandal. A formal public endorsement before July 1 runs against everything she is currently doing.

**Evidence (cited):**

- Mills suspended her campaign in late April to clear Platner's path but now "shows no sign of reigniting" it and is keeping her distance; she reminds voters she is "still on the ballot" ([NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/janet-mills-shows-no-sign-reigniting-maine-senate-bid-graham-platners-rcna348706); [Press Herald, Jun 1](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/06/01/maine-gov-janet-mills-im-still-on-the-ballot-for-senate/)).
- A Democrat from her own campaign says she would move "only if Platner were to step aside, not to challenge him" — i.e., she is the standby nominee, the opposite posture from endorsing him ([CNN, Jun 1](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/01/politics/maine-senate-janet-mills-graham-platner)).
- Price faded 44¢ → 9¢ over the past 10 days as this became clear. (`market_snapshots`.)

**Tail risk (cleanest loss):** Platner wins June 9 cleanly, the scandal fizzles, and party-unity pressure pushes Mills to a public endorsement before July 1. Note this is _uncorrelated_ with the Pick 1 downside: a Platner _collapse_ makes a Mills endorsement of him impossible (resolves NO), so this leg loses only in the rosy-for-Platner world where Pick 1 wins big.

**Execution.** Tiny by necessity — only ~34 contracts sit near 0.91 before the book gaps. A satellite, not a core position.

## 4 · Recommended $1,000 portfolio

| Pick | Side / limit | Contracts | Cost | Max payout | Fair | EV ¢/ct | EV $ | EV % | Conv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26 | NO @ 0.87 | 650 | $562.23 | $650 | 0.90 | +3.5 | +$22.8 | +4.0% | High |
| KXTRUMPCOLLINS-26JUN16 | YES @ 0.72 | 150 | $108.00 | $150 | 0.78 | +6.0 | +$9.0 | +8.3% | Low |
| KXMILLSPLATNER-…-JUL01 | NO @ 0.91 | 40 | $36.40 | $40 | 0.95 | +4.0 | +$1.6 | +4.4% | Low |
| Total deployed | — | 840 | $706.63 | $840 | — | — | +$33.4 | +4.7% | — |
| Cash reserve | — | — | $293.37 | — | — | — | — | 29.3% | — |

EV uses my subjective fair values vs. the limit/blended fill price. Blended EV on deployed capital ≈ **+4.7%**; dollar edge ≈ **+$33** over a 1-to-5-week horizon.

Risk profile.

- **Worst case:** all three resolve against → lose the full **$706.63** staked. Dominated by the Platner leg ($562).
- **Best case:** all three resolve favorably → collect **$840**, a profit of **+$133** (+18.9% on deployed).
- **Most-likely outcome:** Platner stays in (NO pays, +$88 on that leg), Trump endorses Collins (YES pays, +$42), Mills doesn't endorse (NO pays, +$4) → ≈ **+$133**. The realistic spread is "small win most weeks, single concentrated loss if Platner withdraws."
- **Concentration:** ~80% of risk is one binary event — **does Platner withdraw by July 13?** The Mills leg is small and actually _diversifying_ (it loses only in the Platner-survives-triumphantly world, where Pick 1 wins). The Trump-Collins leg ($108) is the only fully independent position.

Execution notes.

- **Platner NO:** limit 0.87, lift the 327 lots at 0.86 first, finish at 0.87; do not chase above 0.88. _Invalidation / exit:_ any credible report that Platner is weighing withdrawal, Schumer or the DSCC pulling support, or a fresh disqualifying revelation. Watch the June 9 primary result — a loss resolves the contract NO under the rules (losing ≠ dropping out), but would change the withdrawal dynamics, so re-underwrite.
- **Trump-Collins YES:** limit 0.72 only, rest it and wait — accept it may not fill. _Invalidation:_ Trump endorses Dooley or signals neutrality in the runoff. Do not buy after an endorsement post (it gaps to ~95¢).
- **Mills NO:** limit 0.91, take the ~34 lots offered, no chasing. _Invalidation:_ Mills reactivates her campaign or issues any endorsement.
- **Reserve ($293):** held deliberately. The category is thin and books are stale; the reserve is dry powder to add to Platner NO if event-driven noise pushes it to 0.83-0.84 without a real change in the fundamentals.
- **Hedges:** none clean — these are idiosyncratic event binaries with no liquid offset. Risk control is position size, not hedging.

## 5 · What I rejected and why

- **KXAPCALL… (11 markets, CA Gov / LA Mayor "when will AP call"):** the June 2 primary already happened and AP made its calls; these timing buckets are settled or sitting at 0/1¢. No trade.
- **KXTRUMPVH-26JUN12-T39.9 (Trump approval > 39.9%) & KXGENERICBALLOT…-T6.2 (generic ballot > 6.2%):** these resolve to a _specific_ VoteHub time-weighted average. Public aggregators straddle the thresholds (Trump approval cited anywhere from 38.6% to 44% in early June), and I cannot pin the exact VoteHub value the contract settles on. No defensible edge — rejected on principle, not on price ([USPollingData](https://uspollingdata.com/polls/trump-approval/); [Silver Bulletin, Jun 7](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin)).
- **KXELECTIRAN-26JUL01 (Iran holds a presidential election before Jul 1):** Iran's next scheduled presidential election is 2028 (Pezeshkian won the 2024 snap election). True probability ~1%; priced at 2-3¢. Correctly priced near the floor — no capturable edge.
- **KXFETTERMANSWITCH (Fetterman leaves the Democratic party) & KXLAIOUT (Lai Ching-te leaves office):** both priced near zero (0-3¢, 1-5¢) and fairly so. No edge.
- **KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01 (Díaz-Canel leaves office before Jul 1), 12¢:** tempting to fade, but the 12¢ is an _unknowable_ coup/health/resignation tail in a genuinely unstable Cuba (blackouts, unrest). I cannot defend a specific true probability, so I cannot defend the edge. Watchlist only; the book is also thin for buying NO in size.
- **KXTRUMPNUMSTATES (8 legs), KXFEDCOMBO (4 legs), KXPRATTCONCEDE, KXPANAMATRAFFIC (7 legs):** mention/novelty markets, a miscategorized commodity series, and a Fed-rate combo with essentially no recent volume. Off-thesis or untradeable.

## 6 · Sources

- NPR — [Graham Platner isn't going anywhere after latest controversy](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/05/nx-s1-5847926/platner-controversy-senate-maine-primary-election) (Jun 5, 2026)
- NBC News — [Democrats navigate a new Platner controversy](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/democrats-new-graham-platner-controversy-maine-rcna348538) (Schumer endorsement quote)
- NBC News — [Janet Mills shows no sign of reigniting her Senate bid](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/janet-mills-shows-no-sign-reigniting-maine-senate-bid-graham-platners-rcna348706)
- CNN — [Mills reminds voters she's "still on the ballot"](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/01/politics/maine-senate-janet-mills-graham-platner) (Jun 1, 2026)
- Portland Press Herald — [If Platner wins, could he be replaced? (July 13 statutory deadline)](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/06/04/if-graham-platner-wins-the-democratic-nomination-could-he-be-replaced-on-the-ballot/) (Jun 4, 2026)
- Portland Press Herald — [Mills: "I am still on the ballot" for Senate](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/06/01/maine-gov-janet-mills-im-still-on-the-ballot-for-senate/) (Jun 1, 2026)
- The Hill — [Platner denies NYT allegations, vows to stay in race](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5911240-platner-maine-senate-allegations/)
- Ballotpedia — [Maine 2026 Democratic Senate primary (June 9)](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine,_2026_(June_9_Democratic_primary))
- Axios — [Mike Collins hires top Trump advisers ahead of Georgia runoff](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/27/mike-collins-georgia-senate-race-trump) (May 27, 2026)
- NBC News — [Collins & Dooley advance to Georgia GOP Senate runoff](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/georgia-senate-republican-primary-winners-election-race-ossoff-rcna345008)
- Washington Times — [Georgia GOP Senate primary: zero Trump endorsements, runoff looms](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/may/16/georgia-gop-senate-primary-five-candidates-zero-trump-endorsements/)
- USPollingData — [Trump approval tracker (Jun 2026)](https://uspollingdata.com/polls/trump-approval/); Silver Bulletin — [Trump approval average](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin)
- Live market & order-book data: Kalshi public API api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2; price/volume history: read-only Kalshi mirror (`trading_markets`, `trading_events`, `market_snapshots`), queried 2026-06-08.

**Data sources:** Kalshi read-only SQL mirror (markets, events, 5-minute snapshots) and the Kalshi public REST API for live order books, plus the cited primary-source news. **Disclaimer:** All probabilities here are _subjective_ estimates, not guarantees. Prediction-market contracts resolve to $1 or $0 — a "mispriced" contract can still resolve to zero and lose 100% of the stake. This is research and commentary, not financial advice. Sizes assume limit orders; stale/thin books may not fill at the stated prices. Do your own diligence.