Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-07-04 · 1 pick triggered · 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip

More than 200 Hormuz transit calls, Jun 29 – Jul 5 (IMF PortWatch) NO invalidated EXIT

KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL05-T200 Trigger: reversal Entry 27¢ → peak 33¢ → now 22¢ (NO bid; YES 76 / 78) My P(NO): 8% vs ~22% implied Closes 2026-07-07

What changed: the thesis was that the post-reopening backlog surge would decay and flatline (~27/day keeps the week under the 200 threshold). Traffic instead re-accelerated inside the resolution window. The official PortWatch tape (queried directly from the ArcGIS feed) still ends at Jun 28 — so the original read wasn't wrong on the data it had; the world moved after it.

Jun 27 — JMIC announced a widened transit corridor near Oman, enabling more two-way traffic; US retaliatory strikes the same day did not re-close the strait.
Jul 1 — ~43 transits (24 in / 19 out) per AIS trackers, well above the ~28.6/day pace NO needs to stay under.
Jul 2 — Morgan Stanley counted 35 oil & gas tanker exits — first day back within pre-war range; 20M+ barrels of queued Iranian crude still to sail.
At ~40+/day the week projects to ~280–300 total vs the 200 strike; NO now requires a sudden re-closure that no source indicates.

PortWatch daily transit calls (published tape; window days Jun 29+ not yet published)
6/22	6/23	6/24	6/25	6/26	6/27	6/28	6/29→
14	15	52	51	39	30	27	unpub · AIS ≈ 40+

Decision — exit at 22¢ (NO bid 22¢ × 96, 21¢ × 415 behind; adequate for our size). Knowing what we know now we would not open NO at 22¢ today: our 8% vs ~22% implied means the market is still overpaying for NO relative to the evidence. Holding to resolution is a near-certain 22¢ → 0 ride; selling recovers most of the 27¢ basis for a −5¢ realized loss.