# Kalshi Entertainment — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

Date: 2026-07-16
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-16-kalshi-entertainment-mispricing-audit-sextant

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# Kalshi Entertainment — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

2026-07-16 · category **Entertainment** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 1 independent models
 (gpt-5.6-sol); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**5 picks** · $148 deployed of $1000 · 7 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXRT-ODY-94` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 62c | HIGH | 84.0% vs 62c  edge 22.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 56 ($35) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 84 |
|  | **Thesis:** YES iff the displayed Tomatometer is at least 95 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20; it stood at 96% from 214 reviews on July 16.               **Rationale:** The current 206/214 positive tally gives a cushion over a displayed 94%, but only a modest cushion over the 95% qualifying floor as reviews accumulate. The main tail risk is that late reviews are negative enough to make the displayed score 94%. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-93` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 88c | MEDIUM | 96.0% vs 88c  edge 8.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 40 ($35) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 96 |
|  | **Thesis:** YES iff the displayed Tomatometer is at least 94 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20; the July 16 score was 96% from 214 reviews.               **Rationale:** The current tally provides meaningful room above a displayed 93%, making YES highly likely. The clean tail risk is a large, unusually negative influx of reviews before the snapshot. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-96` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | NO @ 91c | MEDIUM | 97.0% vs 91c  edge 6.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 38 ($35) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 97 |
|  | **Thesis:** YES iff the displayed Tomatometer is at least 97 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20; the July 16 score was 96% on 214 reviews.               **Rationale:** The direct page’s 206 positive reviews out of 214 is only 96.26%, below the qualifying displayed score, and additional reviews make a jump to 97 difficult. The tail risk is a strongly positive late-review batch that lifts the rounded display to 97%. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-92` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 94c | MEDIUM | 99.0% vs 94c  edge 5.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 37 ($35) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 99 |
|  | **Thesis:** YES iff the displayed Tomatometer is at least 93 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20; the July 16 live score was 96% on 214 reviews.               **Rationale:** A fall from 96% to 92% or lower would require an extreme late-review deterioration, so YES is very likely. The tail risk is an unusually large and substantially more negative final review wave. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-95` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 42c | LOW | 45.0% vs 42c  edge 3.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 21 ($9) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 45 |
|  | **Thesis:** YES iff the displayed Tomatometer is at least 96 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20; the live page showed 96% from 214 reviews on July 16.               **Rationale:** The direct Rotten Tomatoes page showed 206 positive and 8 negative reviews (96%), putting this rung near the rounding boundary rather than safely above it. The clean tail risk is that late reviews lower the displayed score to 95%. |  |  |  |  |  |

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-TAY` | Will Taylor Brown be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXALBUMEQUIV-ALB26JUL16-140K` | Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXWCFIRSTSONG-26JUL20-INTO` | Will Into the Groove be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXLIUKELIMINATIONW-26JUL17-FIN` | Will Finley be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Jul 18, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXFEATURE-26SET-DON` | Will Don Toliver be featured on SET IN STONE? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-ASH` | Will Ashley Trail be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26JUL20-LIT` | Top US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-2.0c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.