Desk summary: All three triggers are capital_free (≥95¢).
Both theses re-verified intact against primary sources.
1 hold — July CPI NO resolves in 6 days, ride it.
2 exits — crypto-bill NO (two lots, same market) at 97¢ with 26 days
of locked capital left; nothing left to earn, take it off.
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2
NO
trigger: capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: HOLD
entry 74¢ → now 93¢ (peak 95¢)
our prob 96% vs market ~94%
yes 5 / 7
closes Aug 12 (6d, at the release)
The
Cleveland Fed nowcast
(updated Aug 5) has July headline CPI at
+0.09% MoM, core at 0.21% — the modal print is 0.1,
and a 0.3+ print would take a ~2-sigma nowcast miss. The thesis is intact and stronger than at entry.
The market closes at the Aug 12 release, inside the ~7-day capital-free window, so we ride the last
few cents to resolution instead of paying the spread. Liquidity note: the 93¢ NO bid is near-empty
(0.01 contracts; real depth 89–92¢), which further favors holding six days.
Crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026
KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-SEP
NO
trigger: capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: EXIT
entry 83¢ → now 97¢ (peak 97.5¢)
our prob 99% vs market ~97.5%
yes 2 / 3
closes Sep 1 (26d)
Thesis fully intact — this is a capital-efficiency exit, not a thesis exit. Thune
never filed cloture
on the CLARITY Act before the August recess (Senate out ~Aug 7;
leadership said Jul 23
it would miss the window), Democratic ethics/stablecoin-yield objections remain unresolved, and the
House is gone until Aug 31 — no realistic path to a signed law before Sep 1. But the market doesn't
close for 26 days: holding earns at most ~3¢ against a month of locked capital and the Aug-31
same-day-passage tail. Exit at 97¢ into deep bids (~116k contracts at 0.97).
Crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026? (second lot, sentinel run)
KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-SEP
NO
trigger: capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: EXIT
entry 83¢ → now 97¢ (peak 97.5¢)
our prob 99% vs market ~97.5%
yes 2 / 3
closes Sep 1 (26d)
Same market and side as signal 600; same evidence, same decision. The calendar-math thesis held
exactly as written: no cloture before recess, the merged text still lacks the 7+ Democratic votes,
and the House doesn't return until Aug 31
(
Punchbowl: cloture slips).
NO is ~99% to win, but with only ~3¢ left over 26 days the capital-free rule says take the 97¢ now.