Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

Rationale Thesis fully confirmed. Section 702 lapsed on Jun 12 and the program will "stay dark until September" — the House doesn't return until Aug 31, so no bill can pass both chambers and be signed before the Sep 1 close; the Clayton-for-FISA deal only opens negotiations after Congress returns. With NO at 99¢ there is at most 1¢ left to earn against 28 days of locked capital — this is exactly the capital_free exit.

Rationale Still no departure signal: Hegseth is briefing media at the Pentagon and rolling out policy in early August, and "replacement search" reporting dates to April 2026, not now. But the edge is gone — my 95% on NO is what the 94.3/95.1 market already implies — and his environment has deteriorated since entry: the Pentagon is "quickly running short on cash" in the Iran war and his staffing purge is being unwound over his head, fattening the abrupt-firing tail. Would not re-open this at today's 95.1¢ ask, so we take +2.3¢ rather than sweat a 5.7¢ tail for 28 more days.