# Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

Date: 2026-07-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-15-kalshi-ai-mispricing-audit-sextant

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# Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

2026-07-15 · category **AI** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 1 independent models
 (gpt-5.6-sol); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**0 picks** · $0 deployed of $1000 · 12 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL15ALTDAR-2-ALT` | Will Daniel Altmaier win set 2 in the Daniel Altmaier vs Luciano Darderi match | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXITFWMATCH-26JUL15ZHALEM-LEM` | Will Tiphanie Lemaitre win the Zhang vs Lemaitre: W75 Vitoria Gasteiz Round of 32 match? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXITFWMATCH-26JUL15ZHALEM-ZHA` | Will Ruien Zhang win the Zhang vs Lemaitre: W75 Vitoria Gasteiz Round of 32 match? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXNPBGAME-26JUL140500CHISAI-SAI` | Chiba Lotte Marines vs Saitama Seibu Lions winner? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXWTAMATCH-26JUL15HONPAR-HON` | Will Mai Hontama win the Hontama vs Parks: Round Of 16 match? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXCS2GAME-26JUL151330PHAPAIN-PHA` | Will Phantom win the Phantom vs. paiN CS2 match? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-USIMO` | Will Unai Simon win the Golden Glove? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-ESP` | Will Spain be the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup? | no edge after shrinkage (-2.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXWCMATCHUP-26FIN-ESPARG` | Will Spain play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXWCMATCHUP-26FIN-ESPENG` | Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXCS2GAME-26JUL151330PHAPAIN-PAIN` | Will paiN win the Phantom vs. paiN CS2 match? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXITFMATCH-26JUL15GAIDEL-DEL` | Will Andrew Delgado win the Gaines Jr vs Delgado: M15 Rochester NY Round of 32 match? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.