What changed: The resolution source itself moved. VoteHub's API reads exactly 40.2 for both Jul 6 and Jul 7 — down from 40.6 on Jul 3–5 — after a 38%-approve poll (field end Jul 2) entered the average. The market requires strictly above 40.2, so today's value resolves NO.
Why exit: The thesis was "40.6 and rising; a NO needs a 0.4pt drop that almost never happens in 4 days." That exact drop happened within hours of entry — the buffer that was the edge is gone, and the analyst's own named tail risk (a cluster of Trump-negative polls landing) is the live scenario. YES now needs a net +0.1pt rise by Friday 10:00 ET against negative momentum — roughly a 30% shot on random poll flow, a bet we never chose to make. Knowing this, we would not open YES today. Exit at the 19¢ bid (145 contracts at top, ~360 more at 18¢ — adequate depth).
What changed: The thesis is confirmed, not merely intact. Public issuance of the Trump-portrait "Patriot Passport" began Jul 6 at the Washington Passport Agency, per Forbes and AFAR, following the Jul 2 launch handout at Rubio's reception (The Hill).
Why exit anyway: At a 99¢ bid there is at most 1¢ left to earn. Nominal close is 13 days out — beyond our ~7-day hold threshold for capital-free positions — and while the early-expire-on-event clause makes prompt settlement likely, it isn't guaranteed this week (the market is still active a day after issuance began). One cent of upside doesn't pay for days of locked capital plus a residual definitional-dispute tail. Liquidity is exceptional: 145,119 contracts bid at 99¢ — we exit instantly at full size. Book the +25¢.