Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

Zero Mar-a-Lago trips through July 26, and none plausible in the four days left: the club is seasonally closed (shut since early May), and the published week-ahead schedule (WFLX, Jul 26) has Trump in Michigan Monday, at the Graham memorial in DC Tuesday, and at a Camp David cabinet meeting Friday Jul 31 — no Florida anywhere. The capital-free trigger fired at ≥95¢, but the market closes Aug 1, inside the ~7-day window, so we ride the last cent to resolution instead of paying the spread to exit at 99¢. YES bid is deep (~25,700 contracts at 99¢).

The thesis got stronger: the House took its last votes ~Jul 23 and is in recess Jul 27–Aug 28 with next votes Aug 31 (House calendar, UW Federal Relations, Jul 22), so nothing can become law before Sep 1 without an improbable same-day House-pass-and-sign on Aug 31. But this is a pure capital-efficiency exit: 36 days locked for the last 4¢, and the tail isn't dead — the Senate is floating a 3-year 702 extension before its Aug 6–7 adjournment, and Jay Clayton's DNI confirmation next week removes the Democrats' stated blocker. Sell NO into the 96¢ bid (~1,770 contracts of depth) and free the capital.