The thesis — that the 14–15¢ YES was residue from NPR's retracted false report and July announcements are historically rare — played out in full.
NPR's Public Editor confirmed the story was a pre-written draft published on a misheard remark and retracted within minutes; no announcement followed.
Better still, Alito has
hired law clerks for the October 2026 term and has a book out in October — behavior inconsistent with an imminent departure — and the conservative-media "genuine summer announcement" chatter flagged as tail risk in the original rationale has produced nothing in three weeks.
But at 98¢ against my own ~98% probability, edge over the market is zero: the last 2¢ over ~8 days of locked capital isn't worth the headline tail risk in a market that already whipsawed once on a false report. Exit into deep bids (≈5,585 contracts at 98¢) and book +12¢.