# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-07-09

Date: 2026-07-09
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-09-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-07-09 · 1 triggered pick reviewed

## Will Samuel Alito announce his departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?

KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01 · NO ·
      signal #191 · source audit 2026-07-01 · closes 2026-08-01
    

Entry **86¢**
Now **95¢** (yes 4 / 5)
Peak **95¢**
My prob **95%** vs mkt-implied ~95%

capital_free ≥95¢
thesis: intact
decision: EXIT

side-mid since entry: 85.5 → 87.5 → 89.5 → 89.5 → 89.5 → 90.5 → 91.5 → 92.5 → 93.5 → 95.0

**What changed:** the thesis played out completely. The inflated 14–15¢ YES was residual
      chatter from [NPR's retracted five-minute report](https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-public-editor/2026/06/30/g-s1-131107/npr-retracts-story-about-alito-retirement)
      (Totenberg misheard "retirement announcements"), and it has since bled to 4–5¢.
      Sources close to Alito told [CBS](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-justices-alito-thomas-not-retiring-sources-say/),
      [ABC](https://abcnews.com/Politics/supreme-court-justices-alito-thomas-expected-retire-year/story?id=132154865) and
      [Fox](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alito-not-expected-retire-term-cooling-supreme-court-vacancy-speculation-sources)
      he is not retiring this year — he has hired clerks for the October term, has a book out in
      October, and intends to serve into at least 2027.

**Why exit, not hold:** NO exits at 95¢ against my ~95% probability — the market has fully
      caught up, so there is no edge in the remaining 5¢. The market closes in 23 days (outside the
      ~7-day hold window for capital-free positions), and a small tail remains:
      [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5837188-alito-retirement-gop-midterms/)
      reports GOP senators still hope for a strategic pre-midterm "surprise." Banking +9¢ (+10.5%)
      and freeing the capital dominates. Liquidity is ample — ~2,800 contracts bid at the 95¢ exit level.

    Sentinel position-review desk · decisions written to `decisions.json` ·
    exit = risk-reducing sale of existing position; no new risk added.