# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-07-03

Date: 2026-07-03
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-03-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-07-03 · 2 positions triggered · 1 exit / 1 hold · run: 2026-07-01-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel (audit report)

President signs more than 2 executive orders, Jun 28 – Jul 4, 2026
KXEOWEEK-26JUL04-2

NO
capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: EXIT @ 97¢

entry 87¢
peak 97.5¢
now (exit bid) 97¢
live YES 2 / 3
my prob 96%
closes Jul 18 (early on complete FR data)

    Thesis re-verified against the White House presidential-actions feed:
    the latest executive order remains #14414, signed Jun 25,
    and the Jun 29 “Signs Executive Orders” video
    was loose labeling for a proclamation (Morocco phosphate emergency) plus a memorandum (“Freedom to Fix”) — zero numbered EOs in the window,
    ~2 days to go, YES needs a 3-EO burst from a standing start. Exiting anyway on the capital-free rule: settlement can drag to Jul 18
    waiting on complete Federal Register data, the 97¢ bid already prices our ~96%, and the only thing left to hold through for 3¢ is the exact
    tail the original audit flagged — a July-4-week batch signing or unposted late-June EOs surfacing in the Federal Register with in-window
    signing dates. Locks in +10¢ of the 13¢ max. Depth at the 97¢ NO bid: ~223 contracts, adequate.
  

Alito announces departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 6, 2026
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JUL06

NO
capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: HOLD (mark 98¢)

entry 95¢
peak 97.5¢
now (exit bid) 98¢
live YES 1 / 2
my prob 99%
closes Jul 6 03:59Z (~3 days)

    Thesis fully intact. The Jun 30 NPR retirement report was retracted within minutes — Totenberg misheard Chief Justice Roberts announcing
    staff retirements on the term's final day (Poynter post-mortem,
    WaPo),
    and the Court's public information office denied any announcement. The traditional term-end window closed Jun 30 with nothing, and Alito is
    visibly engaged — he authored this week's birthright-citizenship dissent.
    Capital-free exception applies: market closes in ~3 days, our 99% exceeds the 98¢ the bid implies, so we collect the last 2¢ rather than pay
    the spread to leave early. Book is deep (24k+ contracts within 2¢ on the NO side).
  

  Desk rules: exit/hold only, never add or flip. Prices refreshed live from the Kalshi API at review time (2026-07-03);
  packet marks treated as stale. price_now = executable exit bid for our side.