2026-07-15 · category Economics · budget $1000
11 picks · $584 deployed of $1000 · 1 logged rejects
| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KXAAAGASD-26JUL16-3.925 |
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.925? | NO @ 25c | HIGH | 72.0% vs 25c edge 47.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
200 ($50) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 72 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff AAA’s U.S. regular average on July 16 is strictly above $3.925; July 15 was $3.8900. Rationale: The required next-day increase is more than 3.5 cents after AAA already rose 3.1 cents from the prior day, so I favor NO despite the book. Continued rapid retail pass-through from the EIA-documented weekly gasoline rise is the principal tail risk. | ||||||
KXAAAGASD-26JUL16-3.920 |
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920? | NO @ 21c | HIGH | 58.0% vs 21c edge 37.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
238 ($50) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 58 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff AAA’s U.S. regular average on July 16 is strictly above $3.920; July 15 was $3.8900. Rationale: AAA’s posted July 15 value requires another rise strictly exceeding three cents after a 3.1-cent daily increase; I put that below even odds, not at the market’s 80%. The tail risk is persistent retail catch-up after EIA’s 7.8-cent weekly jump. | ||||||
KXAAAGASD-26JUL16-3.930 |
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.930? | NO @ 54c | HIGH | 83.0% vs 54c edge 29.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
92 ($50) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 83 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff AAA’s U.S. regular average on July 16 is strictly above $3.930; AAA was only $3.8900 on July 15. Rationale: AAA dated its national average at $3.8900 on July 15, versus $3.8590 the prior day, so another rise exceeding four cents is unlikely. The clean tail risk is continued pass-through from the sharp wholesale/retail rebound: EIA’s July 13 weekly average rose 7.8 cents. | ||||||
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1 |
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026? | YES @ 46c | HIGH | 56.0% vs 46c edge 10.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
164 ($75) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 56 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff BLS reports July headline CPI m/m as 0.2% or higher at one decimal. Rationale: After June headline CPI fell roughly 0.4% seasonally adjusted, EIA’s 7.8-cent gasoline increase in the week to July 13 supports a July bounce to at least 0.2%. The tail risk is that energy retraces and essentially flat core inflation persists. | ||||||
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2 |
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026? | YES @ 23c | HIGH | 32.0% vs 23c edge 9.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
207 ($48) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 32 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff BLS reports July headline CPI m/m as 0.3% or higher at one decimal. Rationale: BLS index data show June headline CPI fell about 0.4% seasonally adjusted while core was flat; EIA then recorded U.S. gasoline rising 7.8 cents in the week to July 13, supporting a July rebound. The tail risk is reversal in gasoline or another energy component before the CPI collection window ends. | ||||||
KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T50000 |
Will above 50000 jobs be added in July 2026? | NO @ 22c | HIGH | 32.0% vs 22c edge 10.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
291 ($64) | ✓ gpt-5.6-sol NO 32 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff the initial BLS July payroll change is at least 51,000; the market underprices NO after June added only 57,000. Rationale: BLS’s July 2 report showed just 57,000 June jobs, and the official series also shows a weak recent path despite stronger April and May readings; I assign 32% to July landing at 50,000 or below versus a 21–22 cent NO entry. The clean tail risk is a routine rebound above the low threshold, especially because payroll estimates are noisy. | ||||||
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.5 |
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026? | YES @ 31c | HIGH | 40.0% vs 31c edge 9.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
210 ($65) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 40 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff BLS’s one-decimal July all-items 12-month change is 3.6% or higher. Rationale: BLS’s June unadjusted index was 333.952 versus 322.561 a year earlier, about 3.5%; a moderate July rebound can round the rate to 3.6%, and EIA gasoline rose early in July. The main tail risk is that weak core inflation and gasoline reversal leave the printed rate at 3.5% or less. | ||||||
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.3 |
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026? | YES @ 8c | MEDIUM | 14.0% vs 8c edge 6.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
332 ($27) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 14 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff BLS reports July headline CPI m/m as 0.4% or higher at one decimal. Rationale: The June CPI level fell sharply with energy, while EIA’s gasoline series rebounded in early July, leaving a fatter 0.4%-plus tail than the book implies. The clean tail risk is that gasoline stabilizes and flat core CPI keeps the rounded headline below 0.4%. | ||||||
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.2 |
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in June 2026? | NO @ 78c | MEDIUM | 82.0% vs 78c edge 4.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
116 ($90) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 82 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff BEA reports June core PCE m/m at 0.3% or higher after one-decimal rounding. Rationale: BEA reported May core PCE at 0.3% m/m on June 26, while June BLS core CPI was essentially flat in the official index data, favoring cooling to 0.2% or less. The main tail risk is category-weight and methodology differences that keep core PCE at 0.3%. | ||||||
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.6 |
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026? | YES @ 12c | MEDIUM | 16.0% vs 12c edge 4.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
189 ($23) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 16 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff BLS’s one-decimal July all-items 12-month change is 3.7% or higher. Rationale: Official CPI levels imply June inflation near 3.5%; reaching a rounded 3.7% in July requires a sizable monthly rebound, which the early-July gasoline increase makes plausible but still unlikely. The tail risk to YES is energy retracement before collection completes. | ||||||
KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T100000 |
Will above 100000 jobs be added in July 2026? | NO @ 65c | LOW | 68.0% vs 65c edge 3.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
65 ($42) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 68 |
| Thesis: Resolves YES iff the initial BLS July establishment-survey payroll change is at least 101,000. Rationale: BLS’s July 2 release put June payroll growth at 57,000, after 129,000 in May and 148,000 in April, making a result above 100,000 possible but below even odds. The tail risk to NO is ordinary sampling noise and a one-month rebound. | ||||||
| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.7 | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.