# Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted) — 2026-08-18

Date: 2026-08-18
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-18-kalshi-ai-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Report date 2026-08-18 · Horizon 45 days (through 2026-10-02) · Capital $2,500 · Category focus: AI (advisory) · Universe: Stage-0 allowlist (targets.json, generated 2026-08-18) · Methodology: Keel v4 — probability before price, precedent-fed, one leg per cluster

## Summary

**1 pick, 12 logged rejects, $63.00 deployed (2.5% of capital), $2,437 cash (97.5%).**
  A thin, efficient week: of 92 in-horizon markets across the allowlisted series, only four passed the mechanical
  cuts (vol24h ≥ 500 live, spread ≤ 5¢, tradeable band) and one of those is an existing pick. Nearly everything
  in-horizon is either a zero/low-volume book — the documented phantom-edge cohort — or priced as a tail/deep favorite
  with no playable side. The single deployment is a NO on Anthropic confirming an IPO before Oct 1, a
  precedent-backed mechanical-trigger decay trade in the core 60–84¢ band. Cash is a position.

## Pick 1 of 1 — BUY NO · KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01

NO @ 84¢ limit
MEDIUM
archetype: corporate-event · Tier 2
cluster: anthropic-ipo-timing
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01

**When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026** (closes 2026-10-01 03:59Z)

Prob (final)NO 86%
Prob (pre-market)NO 88%
Entry (NO)84¢ limit · ~83.7¢ VWAP
Contracts75
Max cost / loss$63.00
EV (record only)+2.0¢/ct · +2.4%

Yes bid/ask18¢ / 22¢
Depth ≤ limit227 contracts
Vol 24h2,027
Open interest111,455

**Prob: 88% pre-market → 86% final** (blended toward a liquid book pricing NO ≈ 80).

**Resolver & mechanism.** Kalshi's own _rules_secondary_ makes resolution purely mechanical:
    YES fires only if, before Oct 1, (1) the SEC declares the S-1 effective, (2) the IPO is priced, or (3) an exchange
    assigns a ticker. Nothing journalistic counts. Verified on EDGAR today: **no public S-1 flip exists as of
    Aug 18** — the Jun 1 filing remains a confidential draft. SEC guidance requires the public flip ≥15 days
    before a roadshow; the fastest mega-IPO comp (SpaceX) still took ~4 weeks flip-to-pricing. So YES needs a public
    flip by ~Sep 8 _and_ a maximally fast roadshow with zero slippage. Latest timeline data points the other way:
    TradingView's IPO calendar lists a planned offer date of **Oct 23**; futuresearch's median listing
    forecast moved _out_ to Nov 30 (Aug 6 update); Forbes (Aug 13) says October. Every flip-less day mechanically
    decays YES.

**Why the price ignores this.** YES spiked 15¢ → 32¢ over Aug 9–14 (22.7k contracts on Aug 11)
    with no identifiable catalyst, and is decaying (21¢ close Aug 18). That is the series' documented headline-flow
    pattern: buyers of "Anthropic IPO coming" stories systematically overpay against triggers that lag by months.

**Resolver risk pricing.** −3 pts for a loose "ticker assigned" reading if the public flip discloses
    an intended symbol — bounded by the SpaceX precedent, where the Jun 4 roadshow ticker disclosure did _not_
    settle the market (triggers counted Jun 11–12). No other deductions; Kalshi's settle-lag quirk favors NO. Total
    deductions 3 < 15 ✓. 48h check: YES drifted 25¢ → 21¢ — decay, not a news event; entry remains below model.

Precedents consulted:
    KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 resolved NO — the Jun 1 confidential draft S-1 announcement met none of the three
    triggers; headline YES-buyers were wrong within 24h (130k contracts repriced 5¢→3¢→1–2¢).
    KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01 resolved NO — "officially announce" is mechanical, not journalistic.
    KXIPO-26-SPACEX resolved YES only at S-1 effectiveness/pricing, not at roadshow ticker disclosure.

## Position sizes & limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Max cost | % of capital | Caps applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 | NO | 84¢ | 75 | $63.00 | 2.5% | Depth cap binding: ⅓ × 227 visible ≤ 84¢ = 75 (MEDIUM cap would allow $175 / 208 cts) |
| Cash reserve | — | — | — | $2,437.00 | 97.5% | ≥10% reserve rule trivially met |

## EV for the record (not used for sizing)

| Ticker | Side | Entry | Model prob | Edge | EV/contract | EV on cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 | NO | 84¢ | 86% | +2.0¢ | +2.0¢ | +2.4% |

Sizing is conviction-weighted and EV-agnostic per v4; this table exists for the resolved-record audit trail.

## Clusters

| Cluster | Deployed leg | Runner-up legs (logged rejects) |
|---|---|---|
| anthropic-ipo-timing | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 (NO) | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 |

One leg per cluster enforced; only one cluster deployed this run.

## Conviction exposure

| Conviction | Positions | Cost at risk | % of capital | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 0% | 15%/pick |
| MEDIUM | 1 | $63.00 | 2.5% | 7%/pick |
| Cash | — | $2,437.00 | 97.5% | — |

## Risk profile

- **Worst case**: Anthropic flips its S-1 public within ~3 weeks and runs a SpaceX-speed roadshow,
    pricing by Sep 30 → position loses $63.00 (2.5% of capital). No other exposure this run.
- **Path monitoring**: an EDGAR public S-1 appearance before ~Sep 5 is the tripwire — it revives the
    accelerated path and the position should be re-evaluated (exit likely available near entry given decay flow).
- **Resolver tail**: a loose "ticker assigned" reading on the public flip's disclosed symbol; priced at −3
    and bounded by the SpaceX precedent.
- **Correlation**: no overlap with existing live picks (KXGPT-OPEN GPT-6 is a different company/thesis;
    no shared resolver or event).

## Execution notes

- Book top is thin on the NO side: only ~7 contracts at 82¢, ~5 at 83¢, ~215 at 84¢. A single 84¢ limit for 75
    contracts fills at ~83.7¢ VWAP — slippage vs the 82¢ touch ≈ 1.7¢ (≤3¢ rule ✓).
- Better price available to patience: resting a NO bid at 80–81¢ against the ongoing YES decay may fill within days;
    acceptable alternative, but do not chase above 84¢ — 85¢+ leaves the core band and the edge.
- Market can close early only on a YES trigger; NO holders carry to Oct 1 03:59Z — capital is committed ~6 weeks.

## Rejects log (12)

| Ticker | Archetype | Px | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3 | multi-news-other | 66 | continuous-number thesis — Bedminster count stands at 3 (Aug 1–2, 7–9, 14–16 verified via WH pool/Factbase; the alleged Aug 4–5 NJ stop was actually Trump National LA) with two weekends left; both sides reduce to visit-pace extrapolation, no mechanical lock. NO side ~34¢ is also a <40¢ tail. Model prob (YES) ~45% if forced. |
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-4 | multi-news-other | 24 | mechanical: spread 7¢, vol24h 413; cluster runner-up of the exactly-3 strike |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01 | corporate-event | 8 | no playable band — YES 8¢ tail (<40¢, tails 0-for-8 lifetime); NO 93¢ deep-favorite (≥90¢) |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 3 | deep-favorite band; cluster twin of the Oct strike |
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | multi-news-other | 7 | already an active pick |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | multi-news-other | 3 | already an active pick |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 99 | cluster runner-up (Oct 1 strike is the better leg); NO ≥98¢ deep-favorite band; vol24h 361 < 500 |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT | scheduled-process | 4 | deep-favorite band — YES 3/4¢ tail, NO ≥96¢; liquidity fine but no playable side |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | scheduled-process | 1 | deep-favorite band — YES 0/1¢ tail, NO ≥99¢ |
| KXMAMDANIEO-26AUG22-T0 | confirmation/enact | 2 | no playable band — YES 1/2¢ tail, NO 98/99¢; high volume (7,987) does not create a band |
| KXGOVTFULLFUND-26AUG-26SEP26 | confirmation/enact | 60 | zero-volume book (vol24h 0) — the documented phantom-edge cohort; spread 5¢ borderline |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25 | scheduled-process | 76 | liquidity floor — vol24h 189 < 500 (hard rule); otherwise attractive scheduled-process book at 76/77 |

## Universe & method notes

Stage-0 universe: targets.json (generated 2026-08-18T15:06Z, min OI 5,000) — ~70 Tier-1 and ~45 Tier-2
  series. 92 open markets close within the 45-day horizon; 4 passed all mechanical cuts. Tier-1 in-horizon markets
  were almost universally tails/deep favorites (departure and enactment strikes at ≤5¢ YES) or zero-volume books —
  no playable Tier-1 leg existed this run, so the sole deployment is Tier-2 (corporate-event), consistent with the
  AI category focus. Precedent store consulted for KXIPOANTHROPIC (2 rows) + corporate-event archetype (1 row);
  KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT and multi-news-other had no precedents (cold derivation noted in reject). Probabilities were
  committed pre-book per v4 discipline; the pre-market and final numbers are shown on the pick. No new settled-market
  facts were established this run — precedents.json is empty.

Sources relied on: SEC EDGAR (no public Anthropic S-1 as of Aug 18); Kalshi rules_primary/secondary
  and orderbooks (live API); Roll Call Factbase / WH pool schedules (Bedminster visits); Forbes Aug 13 (October IPO);
  TradingView IPO calendar (Oct 23 offer date); futuresearch.ai (median listing Nov 30, Aug 6 update); Anthropic
  newsroom (confidential draft S-1, Jun 1).

Keel v4 · run kalshi-mispricing-ai-v2-h9f6v · 1 pick / 12 rejects · $63.00 of $2,500 deployed