Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls >60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 718
Side NO
Entry 92¢ → now 99¢ (peak 99.5)
YES quotes 0 / 1
Closes Sep 1 (12d)
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 99¢
Our prob 99% vs implied ~99.5%
The thesis didn't just hold, it hardened: the strait is effectively closed on day ~171 —
straits.live / IMF PortWatch show
1 transit on Aug 16 against a 73/day
baseline, war-risk insurance at 40× pre-crisis, and 364 hulls holding position
(
Lloyd's List brief, Aug 5;
CNN, Aug 17).
A 7dMA >60 needs ~420 AIS-tracked transits in a week — unreachable before Sep 1. But that's the point:
NO bids 99¢ into ~398k contracts of depth, so there is nothing left to earn except 1¢ over 12+ days,
and PortWatch's weekly publishing cadence can drag settlement past Sep 1. The audit itself priced several
points of data-artifact risk on an "any print" resolver. Take the 99, free the capital.
Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls >60/day before Sep 1 (duplicate line)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 734
Side NO
Entry 92¢ → now 99¢ (peak 99.5)
YES quotes 0 / 1
Closes Sep 1 (12d)
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 99¢
Our prob 99% vs implied ~99.5%
Same market and same evidence as signal 718 (this desk's second audit line on the ticker).
Transits are ~1/day vs a 73/day norm, four ceasefires have collapsed, and normalization timelines run
months — recovery to a >60 7dMA within 12 days is physically impossible. The capital_free rule applies
cleanly: 99¢ bid, deep book, 12 days to close plus resolver lag. Exiting captures 99 of a possible 100
with zero further tail; holding risks the data-revision quirk for one cent. Exit alongside 718.
Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026
KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · signal 808
Side YES
Entry 93¢ → now 97¢ (peak 97.5)
YES quotes 97 / 98
Closes Sep 1 (12d)
capital_free
intact
HOLD (exit ref 97¢)
Our prob 99% vs implied ~97.5%
Tracking exactly as modeled: zero Mar-a-Lago trips through Aug 19. Trump's August has been Camp David
(Jul 31–Aug 2), a California swing, and Bedminster weekends — Aug 7–9 around
LIV Golf at Bedminster (Aug 6–9) and Aug 14–15 per
WH pool reports — while the club is
seasonally closed. The one priced tail (a Palm Beach hurricane trip) is quiet:
WeatherTiger and
NOAA
show no Florida threat in the next 5–7 days in a below-normal, strong-El-Niño season, and the early-September
Atlantic ramp lands outside the August window. At 97¢ the market gives us ~1.5¢ of real edge over 11 days
with a hard public-record resolution — we'd re-enter here, so we hold. Bid depth is ample (~9.7k @ 97¢)
if we need out later.