# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Sentinel, managed) — 2026-07-06

Date: 2026-07-06
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Sentinel, managed)

Report date 2026-07-06 · Category: **Politics** (category-match mode) · Horizon 45 days · Capital $1,000 · Methodology **v3** (conviction-weighted, entry-band-screened, EV-agnostic sizing). Picks below count toward the public track record and are cleared for auto-copy.

## 1. How this was researched

**Mode: category-match.** `lower(trading_events.category) = 'politics'` returned 274 active markets closing within 45 days (by 2026-08-20), so no theme-keyword fallback was needed. For each market I joined the latest `market_snapshots` row (all snapshots current to within ~5 minutes of query time, 2026-07-06 ≈16:00 UTC).

**Stage-1 mechanical screen:** volume24h ≥ 1,500, bid-ask spread ≤ 5¢, not fully priced (YES bid < 95¢, YES ask > 5¢), not an announcer-noise market, and not one of the 60+ contracts already live in users' feeds from prior runs (those are excluded up front as duplicate-pick risk). Twelve markets survived. Three near-misses with tight spreads and 24h volume of 978–1,121 (KXKNESSET-27-AUG01, KXTRUMPVH-26JUL10-T40.2, KXEOWEEK-26JUL11-0) were added to diligence with the relaxation noted — each is flagged in the table below. The Politics book is thin this week: most substantive markets (SCOTUS merits cases, Senate confirmations, budget bills) show near-zero 24h volume or 5¢+ spreads and were mechanically cut.

**Stage-2 diligence** on 15 candidates: full rules text from the mirror DB, 14-day intraday history from `market_snapshots`, live top-of-book depth from the Kalshi public API (recorded per pick), and primary-source news research (Federal Register API, State Department transcripts, IMF PortWatch ArcGIS feed, VoteHub and RCP live JSON APIs, Times of Israel/JPost/Haaretz, Roll Call Factbase). **Stage-3.5 v3 screens** then gated every survivor by conviction tier and effective entry band; `ev_pct`/`edge_cents` are reported for calibration only and did _not_ set position size.

## 2. Markets reviewed

| Ticker | Market | Bid/Ask ¢ | Vol 24h | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JUL20 | Trump-image passport issued before Jul 20 | 71 / 74 | 1,926 | PICK — BUY YES |
| KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-0 | Exactly 0 Mar-a-Lago trips in July | 90 / 91 | 8,815 | PICK — BUY YES |
| KXTRUMPVH-26JUL10-T40.2 | VoteHub approval >40.2% on Jul 10 † | 73 / 75 | 978 | PICK — BUY YES |
| KXKNESSET-27-AUG01 | Knesset dissolved before Aug 1 † | 74 / 77 | 1,100 | PICK — BUY YES |
| KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50 | Max daily Hormuz transits ≥50 in July | 60 / 62 | 1,811 | REJECT — edge inside error |
| KXEOWEEK-26JUL11-0 | >0 executive orders Jul 5–11 † | 38 / 39 | 1,122 | REJECT — coin-flip band |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL11-T220 | >220 Truth Social posts Jul 5–11 | 84 / 86 | 27,426 | REJECT — edge eaten |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL11-B210 | 200–220 Truth Social posts Jul 5–11 | 13 / 15 | 15,485 | REJECT — tail band |
| KXTRUMPPHOTO-26JUL12-5 | Getty photo-days = 5 this week | 32 / 33 | 1,687 | REJECT — noise market |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.3 | RCP approval 40.2–40.4 on Jul 10 | 42 / 44 | 3,291 | REJECT — fairly priced |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.6 | RCP approval 40.5–40.7 on Jul 10 | 26 / 27 | 2,499 | REJECT — tail band |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.9 | RCP approval 40.8–41.0 on Jul 10 | 13 / 14 | 1,870 | REJECT — thin, correlated |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-41.2 / 41.3 | RCP approval ≥41.1 rungs | 6 / 7 · 5 / 6 | 1,547 · 2,596 | Assessed with ladder — tails, no basis |
| KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-1 | Exactly 1 Mar-a-Lago trip in July | 7 / 10 | 9,679 | REJECT — correlated leg |

† admitted below the 1,500-contract 24h-volume screen (978–1,122) on tight spreads; noted per methodology. Prices as of 2026-07-06 ≈16:00–17:30 UTC.

## 3. Picks — detail and thesis

### Pick 1 — KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JUL20 · BUY YES @ 0.76 limit · HIGH CONVICTION

_"Will the State Department issue one or more U.S. passports containing an image or visual representation of Donald Trump's face after May 4 and before Jul 20, 2026?"_

Current71 / 74¢My probability93%Market implies~74%
Entry band60–90¢ favoriteEdge vs limit+17¢ (+22%)Clustertrump-passport-rollout

**Mispricing thesis.** The resolving event has, for practical purposes, already happened — the market simply hasn't digested it. This is the "Patriot Passport" rollout, and it is live:

- **Jul 2, 2026 — first passports physically distributed.** Secretary Rubio hosted the "Consular Affairs Patriot Passport Launch" at the State Department and told recipients "you guys are the first in the country to have it" ([official State Dept transcript](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/07/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-at-a-reception-for-the-consular-affairs-patriot-passport-launch)).
- **Jul 6, 2026 (today) — general public issuance began** at the Washington Passport Agency: "the passports will be issued starting July 6 … the default passport out of the Washington Passport Agency when available" ([AFAR, Jul 1](https://www.afar.com/magazine/what-to-know-about-the-new-trump-themed-u-s-passports), confirming State Dept; verified directly today). Issuance mechanics — in-person appointments, proof of travel within 2 weeks, $60 expedite — per [Forbes, Jun 27](https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/06/27/trump-passports-will-not-be-issued-to-all-applicants-what-to-know-about-the-limited-release/).
- Design unambiguously contains Trump's face: blue/white Trump portrait with gold signature, unveiled Apr 28–29 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/29/g-s1-119146/us-to-issue-passports-with-trumps-picture-for-americas-250th-birthday), [Time](https://time.com/article/2026/04/28/new-passport-design-featuring-trump-s-face-unveiled-by-state-department/)); 25,000–30,000 printed.
- No injunction or lawsuit found — only a Senate letter demanding answers ([Sen. King, press release](https://www.king.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/king-colleagues-demand-answers-on-special-edition-politicized-us-passport-featuring-trumps-portrait)).

**Tail risks (cleanest first).** (1) A resolution dispute that the Jul 2 reception copies were ceremonial and that no regular applicant demonstrably receives one before Jul 20 — mitigated by today's issuance start, two full weeks of runway, expedite-only appointments (passports printed same-week), and intense press coverage that will document recipients. (2) A sudden pause/recall of the design. (3) Verification lag past the close date. Netting these: 93%.

**Numbers.** 190 contracts at ≤76¢ (est. avg fill 75.7¢) = $143.90 cost (14.4% of capital, inside the 15% HIGH cap and 15% cluster cap). Max payout $190; EV +17.3¢/contract ≈ +$33 (+22%) — recorded, not used for sizing.

**Liquidity / entry context.** yes_bid 71 / yes_ask 74; ~181 contracts fillable at ≤76 (21@74, 10@75, 150@76); vol24h 1,926; OI 3,951. Slippage vs ask ≈ 1.7¢ — within the 3¢ rule.

**Price history.** Traded 61–66¢ mid-June → 75–80¢ after the Jun 27 issuance-rules coverage → sold off today to an intraday low of 54¢ before recovering to 71/74. That dip against overwhelming primary-source evidence is the opportunity; nothing in today's news supports it.

### Pick 2 — KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-0 · BUY YES @ 0.91 limit · HIGH CONVICTION

_"Will Trump make exactly 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in July 2026?"_

Current90 / 91¢My probability95%Market implies~91%
Entry band>90¢ deep favoriteEdge vs limit+4¢ (+4.4%)Clustertrump-summer-travel

**Mispricing thesis.** A seasonal near-lock priced like it has real event risk. Mar-a-Lago closes for the season around Mother's Day and stays shut through fall; Trump does not go there in summer.

- Trump "made his final visit to Palm Beach for the season earlier this month" — early May 2026 ([Washington Post wire via Bangor Daily News, May 19, 2026](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/05/19/politics/mar-a-lago-fewer-trump-spectators/)).
- **The same market settled YES-on-zero for June 2026** (KXLAGODAYS-26JUN-0 → yes, Kalshi settled data), and May 2026 settled at exactly 1 (the pre-closure visit).
- 2025 precedent: zero visits from Easter (Apr 20) to Oct 17 — "first time in six months" ([WFLX](https://www.wflx.com/2025/10/18/trump-returns-mar-a-lago-first-time-since-easter/)); zero Palm Beach trips in July 2025 ([trip list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump_(2025))).
- July 2026 schedule is away from Florida: NATO summit in Ankara Jul 7–8, Carlisle PA Jul 15, World Cup final at MetLife Jul 19, Bedminster weekends ([2026 trip list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump_(2026))); no Mar-a-Lago events on the club calendar.

**Tail risks.** (1) A one-off Florida swing — Hard Rock Stadium (Miami) hosts a World Cup quarterfinal Jul 11 and the third-place match Jul 18; if Trump attended and overnighted at the closed club, resolution counts a "trip." (Prior-run feed already carries Trump-attends-UFC-329-Las-Vegas Jul 11, which conflicts with a Miami trip that same day.) (2) An unscheduled fundraiser or hurricane-related visit. The 90→91 drift down over the past 48h looks like profit-taking, not information — no Florida reporting emerged.

**Numbers.** 110 contracts at 91¢ = $100.10 (10.0% of capital, deliberately below the 15% HIGH cap — deep-favorite band, thin edge by construction, don't over-allocate chasing 4¢). Max payout $110; EV +4¢/contract ≈ +$4.4 (+4.4%).

**Liquidity / entry context.** yes_bid 90 / yes_ask 91; 276 contracts fillable at 91; vol24h 8,815; OI 19,006. Zero slippage at limit.

**Price history.** Stable 93–95¢ Jul 1–4, easing to 90–91 on Jul 5–6 on no news — entry improved 3–4¢ against an unchanged thesis.

### Pick 3 — KXTRUMPVH-26JUL10-T40.2 · BUY YES @ 0.78 limit · MEDIUM CONVICTION

_"Will Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 40.2% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 10, 2026?"_

Current73 / 75¢My probability89%Market implies~75%
Entry band60–90¢ favoriteEdge vs limit+11¢ (+14%)Clustertrump-approval-early-july

**Mispricing thesis.** The resolution source is public and machine-readable, and it currently reads 0.4pt above the strike with an uptrend. VoteHub's own API ([polling.votehub.com/averages/trump_approval](https://polling.votehub.com/averages/trump_approval), updated today 16:00) shows:

- Approve = **40.6** on Jul 3, 4, 5 and 6 (four consecutive days), up from 39.3 on Jun 22 — a +1.3pt two-week uptrend.
- Daily-series volatility over the last 30 days: mean |daily change| 0.11pt, median 0.0, max 0.6. A NO requires a ≥0.4pt drop within 4 days — roughly a 4-sigma sequence of Trump-negative polls relative to recent behavior, against the current direction of travel.
- The average is step-like (moves only when new polls land), so with the reading pinned at 40.6 today the path to ≤40.2 by Friday 10 AM needs multiple sharply negative polls to enter at once.

**Tail risks.** (1) A batch of Trump-negative polls fielded over the NATO summit lands Wed–Fri (the Jul 5 grievance-spree coverage could poll badly). (2) VoteHub methodology tweak or an outlier heavyweight poll — its Jun 26 step was +0.4 in one day, so single-poll steps of the required size do occur, just rarely and lately upward. Priced at 89%, not higher, for exactly these reasons — this is a strong statistical lean, not a lock, hence MEDIUM.

**Numbers.** 90 contracts at ≤78¢ (est. avg fill 77.7¢: 1@75, 25@77, 64@78) = $69.90 (7.0% — at the MEDIUM cap). Max payout $90; EV +11.3¢/contract ≈ +$10 (+14%).

**Liquidity / entry context.** yes_bid 73 / yes_ask 75, but the ask is 1 contract; ~90 contracts fillable at ≤78; vol24h 978 (below the formal screen — flagged); OI 2,416. Slippage vs ask ≈ 2.7¢, inside the 3¢ rule but only just — use the limit, accept partial fills.

**Price history.** 49–57¢ on Jul 3 → 73–75 today, i.e. the market has been converging to the data for 72h. The residual 11–14¢ against an 89% mechanical read is the edge; it is smaller than it was Friday, and honesty requires noting we are riding a move, not anticipating one.

### Pick 4 — KXKNESSET-27-AUG01 · BUY YES @ 0.78 limit · MEDIUM CONVICTION

_"Will the Israeli Knesset be dissolved before Aug 1, 2026?"_

Current74 / 77¢My probability85%Market implies~77%
Entry band60–90¢ favoriteEdge vs limit+7¢ (+9%)Clusterknesset-dissolution

**Mispricing thesis.** Dissolution is procedurally teed up, unanimously supported when voted, scheduled before the deadline on both competing timetables, and now personally in Netanyahu's interest.

- The government-backed dissolution bill passed its **preliminary reading 110–0** (May 20; [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-896824)) and **first reading 106–0** (Jun 1–2; [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/mks-unanimously-advance-bill-to-dissolve-knesset-and-trigger-elections-no-date-set/)).
- Speaker Ohana, coalition whip Katz and Knesset legal adviser Afik all point to **Jul 17 dissolution → Oct 27 election** ([ToI, Jul 5](https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-expected-to-dissolve-july-17-paving-way-for-october-27-election/)); Afik holds the pre-election recess must start 100 days out, making Jul 16 the last working day.
- The fallback fight — UTJ pushing recess to **Jul 27** — is _also_ before Aug 1 ([Matzav, Jul 5](https://matzav.com/netanyahu-camp-pushes-knesset-dissolution-law-amid-fears-he-could-be-ousted-during-election-campaign/)).
- Netanyahu's camp is pushing _formal_ dissolution (not mere recess) to block a constructive no-confidence vote during the campaign — aligning the PM's personal survival with the bill's final readings (same source).

**Tail risks.** (1) The market needs formal dissolution: if the Haredi legislative package (Basic Law: Torah Study, draft-arrest freeze, kashrut) stalls, UTJ withholds final-reading support and the Knesset could slide into the 100-day recess _without_ ever dissolving — the main NO path, and why this is 85% not 95%. (2) A war-driven postponement reshuffling the calendar past Aug 1. Note the price already jumped ~55→77¢ on the Jul 5 timetable reporting; the residual edge is the mechanism risk the market still overweights.

**Numbers.** 90 contracts at ≤78¢ (est. avg fill 77.4¢: 52@77, 38@78) = $69.70 (7.0% — at the MEDIUM cap). Max payout $90; EV +7.6¢/contract ≈ +$7 (+9.8%).

**Liquidity / entry context.** yes_bid 74 / yes_ask 77; ~310 contracts fillable at ≤78; vol24h 1,100 (below the formal screen — flagged); OI 3,892. Slippage ≈ 0.4¢.

**Price history.** Ranged 51–65¢ through late June, whipsawed 35–84 on Jul 4, settled 75–77 after the Jul 5 ToI report. We are paying up post-news for the residually-underpriced procedural finish.

## 4. Recommended $1,000 portfolio

| Pick | Side | Limit ¢ | Contracts | Cost $ | Conviction / band (sets size) | Max payout $ | EV ¢/ct | EV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JUL20 | YES | 76 | 190 | 143.90 | HIGH · favorite 60–90¢ (cap 15%) | 190.00 | +17.3 | +22 |
| KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-0 | YES | 91 | 110 | 100.10 | HIGH · deep favorite >90¢ (held under cap) | 110.00 | +4.0 | +4.4 |
| KXTRUMPVH-26JUL10-T40.2 | YES | 78 | 90 | 69.90 | MEDIUM · favorite 60–90¢ (cap 7%) | 90.00 | +11.3 | +14 |
| KXKNESSET-27-AUG01 | YES | 78 | 90 | 69.70 | MEDIUM · favorite 60–90¢ (cap 7%) | 90.00 | +7.6 | +9.8 |
| Total deployed |  |  | 480 | 383.60 | 38.4% of capital | 480.00 |  | +14.2 blended |
| Cash held | $616.40 (61.6%) — cash is a position; the category is efficient this week and v3 does not pad thin edges |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

EV cents / EV % are recorded for calibration only — per v3 they did **not** drive contract counts. Sizing came exclusively from conviction tier + entry band, then cluster caps. Dollar edge (sum of EV): ≈ +$54 on $384 deployed.

### Cluster exposure (cap: 15% of capital per underlying thesis)

| Cluster | Picks | Cost $ | % of capital | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| trump-passport-rollout | 1 | 143.90 | 14.4% | 15% |
| trump-summer-travel | 1 | 100.10 | 10.0% | 15% |
| trump-approval-early-july | 1 | 69.90 | 7.0% | 15% |
| knesset-dissolution | 1 | 69.70 | 7.0% | 15% |

One pick per cluster by construction: the correlated legs (KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-1, the other KXAPRPOTUS rungs) were rejected rather than stacked — the exact failure mode of the v1 correlated-loss episode.

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Picks | Cost $ | % of deployed | Per-pick cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 2 | 244.00 | 63.6% | $150 (15%) |
| MEDIUM | 2 | 139.60 | 36.4% | $70 (7%) |
| LOW | 0 | 0.00 | 0% | $30 (3%) |

### Risk profile

- **Most likely outcome** (all four win, joint ≈ 67% treating theses as independent): payout $480 on $384 → **+$96**.
- **Expected value**: ≈ +$54 (+14.2% on deployed, +5.4% on total capital) over 4–26 days.
- **Realistic bad case**: both MEDIUMs lose, HIGHs win → −$139.60 + $56.10 = **−$83.50** (−8.4% of capital).
- **Largest single-event loss**: passport pick fails → **−$143.90** (−14.4%); by construction no single thesis can exceed 15%.
- **Absolute worst case** (every pick to zero, joint probability ≈ 10⁻⁴): −$383.60. Cash reserve $616.40 is never at risk.
- **Concentration note**: three of four picks are Trump-adjacent but mechanically independent (passport logistics ⊥ travel schedule ⊥ poll averages); the correlation channel (a catastrophic Trump-specific shock hitting all three) is real but remote inside these windows.

### Execution notes

- **Limits, not market orders.** Books are thin: passport ask is 21 contracts, VoteHub ask is 1. Rest at the stated limits; accept partial fills. Do not chase above limit — each limit already contains the ≤3¢ slippage budget.
- **Invalidation triggers.** Passport: any report of an injunction, recall, or issuance pause → exit at market. Mar-a-Lago: any credible report of a scheduled Trump Florida trip (esp. Miami WC quarterfinal Jul 11 or third-place match Jul 18) → exit. VoteHub: reading ≤40.4 on Jul 8–9 (checkable at polling.votehub.com) → cut. Knesset: reporting that the coalition will take recess _without_ final readings, or the Haredi deal collapsing → cut.
- **Watchlist (no capital).** KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50 — PortWatch updates Tuesdays ~9 AM ET; if the Jul 7 release shows a ≥45 day in the Jun 29–Jul 5 window, YES below 70 becomes deployable. KXEOWEEK-26JUL11-0 — a single EO signing by Wed makes the remaining rungs of that ladder interesting.
- **No hedges needed** at these sizes; the natural hedge is the 61.6% cash book.

## 5. What I rejected and why

Every Stage-2 survivor that didn't become a pick is machine-logged in `picks.json` and **shadow-tracked to settlement** — if the rejects outperform the picks, the selection screen adds nothing, and we want to know that. Rejections cut by the v3 entry-band screen are marked **[band]**.

- **KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50 (would-be YES @ 62¢, model 65%).** Primary PortWatch data (ArcGIS feed) shows June already printed 52 and 51 transit-call days (Jun 24–25), proving the threshold attainable, and 31 July draws remain from a spiky, convoy-driven distribution — but the last print is 27/day, early-July Kpler counts run 13–25, and Iran's Jul 5 fee announcement adds friction. A 3¢ modeled edge on a market that already repriced −27¢ on the same data is inside estimation error. Efficient, not mispriced.
- **KXEOWEEK-26JUL11-0 (would-be YES @ 39¢, model 57%) [band].** Federal Register data: EOs arrive in clumps (2–3 at a time), 4 of the last 9 weeks were zero, and none has been signed since Jun 25; the NATO trip removes two workdays this week. My 57% vs 39¢ is a real lean and an 18¢ paper edge — but it sits in the 35–60¢ coin-flip band, which v3 only permits at HIGH conviction, and a clumpy Poisson process can never be HIGH. This is precisely the trade that bled the v1/v2 book. Logged and walked away.
- **KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL11-T220 (would-be NO @ 16¢, model 30%) [band].** The market moved 25¢→86¢ within 24 hours of Trump's ~105-post Jul 5 spree (HuffPost/Daily Beast counts) — the YES edge was eaten before we arrived, and fading it means buying a sub-35¢ tail against a live hot streak where he needs only his baseline ~19–22 posts/day to clear. No lottery slot spent.
- **KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL11-B210 (would-be YES @ 15¢, model 18%) [band].** Threading the weekly count into a 21-post window is a tail with no informational edge.
- **KXTRUMPPHOTO-26JUL12-5 (would-be NO @ 68¢, model ~70%).** Getty tagging cadence during a summit-travel week is announcer-noise; any stated probability would be manufactured precision. Passed Stage 1 on volume, failed Stage 2 on modelability.
- **KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.3 (would-be YES @ 44¢, model 43%) [band].** Live RCP average is 40.3 today, but it traversed 40.3–40.7 within the past week and the band is 0.3pt wide; the market has this one about right. Coin-flip band, no conviction.
- **KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.6 (would-be YES @ 27¢, model 32%) [band]** and **-40.9 (would-be NO @ 87¢, model 90%).** Small edges on rungs of the same underlying variable as the deployed VoteHub pick — stacking them re-creates correlated-ladder exposure for 3–5¢.
- **KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-1 (would-be NO @ 93¢, model 95.5%).** The same seasonal-closure thesis as Pick 2 wearing a different ticker; adding it would double the trump-summer-travel cluster for ~2.5¢ of edge. This is exactly the two-tickers-one-thesis pattern the 15% cluster cap exists to stop.

**Also cut at Stage 1** (mechanical, not logged): ~260 markets on volume/spread/priced-out grounds — including every SCOTUS merits market (KXWATSONRNC, KXCHATRIEUSA, etc.: 5¢+ spreads or already picked in prior runs), all Senate-confirmation markets (near-zero volume), and 60+ contracts already live in users' feeds (duplicate-pick exclusion, e.g. the entire KXFABLERESTORE, KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL05 and KXTRUMPWORLDCUP families).

## 6. Sources

- [State Dept — Rubio remarks, Patriot Passport Launch reception (Jul 2, 2026)](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/07/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-at-a-reception-for-the-consular-affairs-patriot-passport-launch)
- [AFAR — Trump-themed passports issued starting Jul 6 (Jul 1, 2026)](https://www.afar.com/magazine/what-to-know-about-the-new-trump-themed-u-s-passports)
- [Forbes — issuance rules for the limited release (Jun 27, 2026)](https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/06/27/trump-passports-will-not-be-issued-to-all-applicants-what-to-know-about-the-limited-release/)
- [NPR — passport design unveiled (Apr 29, 2026)](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/29/g-s1-119146/us-to-issue-passports-with-trumps-picture-for-americas-250th-birthday) · [Time (Apr 28, 2026)](https://time.com/article/2026/04/28/new-passport-design-featuring-trump-s-face-unveiled-by-state-department/) · [Sen. King press release](https://www.king.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/king-colleagues-demand-answers-on-special-edition-politicized-us-passport-featuring-trumps-portrait)
- [WaPo wire via Bangor Daily News — "final visit for the season" (May 19, 2026)](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/05/19/politics/mar-a-lago-fewer-trump-spectators/) · [WFLX — six-month 2025 absence (Oct 18, 2025)](https://www.wflx.com/2025/10/18/trump-returns-mar-a-lago-first-time-since-easter/)
- [Wikipedia — 2026 presidential trips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump_(2026)) · [2025 presidential trips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump_(2025))
- [VoteHub approval API (current)](https://polling.votehub.com/averages/trump_approval) · [VoteHub daily series API](https://polling.votehub.com/averages/trump_approval/values)
- [RCP live historical averages JSON (race 8656)](https://orig.realclearpolitics.com/poll/race/8656/historical_data.json)
- [Times of Israel — Knesset expected to dissolve Jul 17 (Jul 5, 2026)](https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-expected-to-dissolve-july-17-paving-way-for-october-27-election/) · [ToI — first reading 106-0](https://www.timesofisrael.com/mks-unanimously-advance-bill-to-dissolve-knesset-and-trigger-elections-no-date-set/) · [JPost — preliminary reading 110-0](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-896824) · [JPost — Haredi conditions deal (Jun 23)](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-900296) · [Matzav — Netanyahu camp pushes dissolution law (Jul 5)](https://matzav.com/netanyahu-camp-pushes-knesset-dissolution-law-amid-fears-he-could-be-ousted-during-election-campaign/) · [Haaretz — dissolution stalls (May 24)](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-05-24/ty-article/.premium/knesset-dissolution-stalled-after-ultra-orthodox-parties-yield-to-netanyahu/0000019e-5a88-d6a0-abde-fa8c5bc90000)
- [Federal Register — 2026 executive orders (signing dates via API)](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026) · [whitehouse.gov presidential actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) · [Roll Call Factbase calendar](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/)
- [HuffPost — Jul 5 posting spree (100+)](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-truth-social-posting-spree-fourth-july_n_6a4aaf02e4b0179c4194efa9) · [Daily Beast — 105-post count](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-unravels-with-100-plus-posting-spree-after-holiday-humiliation/) · [Trump's Truth archive/stats](https://trumpstruth.org/)
- [IMF PortWatch — Strait of Hormuz chokepoint](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6) (daily counts pulled from the underlying ArcGIS feature service) · [Bloomberg — convoy formation (Jul 1)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-01/ships-cross-hormuz-in-convoy-formation-as-gulf-oil-keeps-flowing) · [Bloomberg — MOL convoy exits (Jul 6)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/japan-linked-ships-escaping-hormuz-in-convoy-through-iran-route)
- Kalshi mirror DB (read-only query API) — rules text, snapshots, settled results · [Kalshi public API](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/) — live orderbooks (fetched 2026-07-06 ≈17:00–17:30 UTC)

**Data sources:** Kalshi mirror DB (5-minute snapshots) and Kalshi public trade API for prices, depth and settled results; primary-source news and government/API data as linked above. Prices captured 2026-07-06 ≈16:00–17:30 UTC and move continuously.

**Disclaimer:** All probabilities are subjective estimates by the audit model; markets can and do resolve against them, and a losing contract resolves to zero. Edge and EV figures are recorded for calibration and did not determine position sizes (v3 is EV-agnostic by design). This is research, not financial advice. Rejected candidates are machine-logged and shadow-tracked to settlement so the selection screen itself can be audited.