# Kalshi Science and Technology — Mispricing Audit (2026-06-26)

Date: 2026-06-26
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-26-kalshi-science-and-technology-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Science and Technology — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-06-26 · Horizon 45 days · Book size $1,000 · Methodology v3 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% cluster cap)

Verdict: no deployable edge this week. 0 PICKS 8 REJECTS 100% CASH

The Science & Technology slate is dominated by three liquid clusters — AI-model release timing, GPU compute-price ladders, and SpaceX launch counts — and each fails a v3 screen for a $1,000 book. The AI-release ladder **repriced violently in the last ~24 hours** on OpenAI's June miss (edge already eaten). The compute ladders settle off an **opaque third-party index I cannot independently verify**. The one near-locked favorite (SpaceX ≥14 June launches) has a **5¢ spread that forces a negative-edge cross**. Per v3, a near-empty book in an efficient week is the correct answer — padding it with low-conviction filler is exactly what lost money in the resolved track record. So: zero deployed, full cash, and the work is in the rejects below.

 1 

## 1 · How this was researched

**Selection mode: category-match.** `$CATEGORY = "Science and Technology"` matched `trading_events.category` directly and returned **171 active markets** closing within 45 days — a healthy population, so no theme/keyword fallback was needed.

Pipeline:

- **Schema first.** Pulled `/schema` and confirmed table/column names (`trading_events.category`, `trading_markets.rules`, `market_snapshots`) before any query.
- **Stage 1 — filter.** 171 markets → cut `volume24h < 1500`, bid-ask spread > 5¢, fully-priced legs (YES bid ≥ 95¢ or ask ≤ 5¢), announcer/“mention” noise, and the 11 tickers already live in users' feeds from prior runs. **12 candidates survived.**
- **Stage 2 — diligence.** For each survivor: pulled full `rules` text, 14-day intraday history from `market_snapshots`, the live Kalshi orderbook (depth-of-book, not just top quote), and grounded each thesis in primary-source news (OpenAI release coverage, SpaceflightNow / Wikipedia launch logs, Kalshi series settlement sources).
- **Stage 3 / 3.5 — reject & entry-band screen.** Tested each for definitional traps, public-info-only edge, fresh 48h repricing, fillable size within 3¢ slippage, and a conviction tier + effective-entry band. Every candidate failed.
- **Stage 4 — portfolio.** With no survivor clearing the screen, the portfolio is 100% cash.

Live prices/quotes captured 2026-06-26 ~15:00–15:30 UTC from the Kalshi public API; snapshot fields from the DB mirror. Probabilities are subjective estimates, stated explicitly per candidate as a calibration datum.

 2 

## 2 · Markets reviewed (Stage-2 survivors)

The 12 markets that cleared the mechanical Stage-1 filter, with the live read at pick time. “Eff. entry” is the price you'd pay for the side a trade would take. Every row resolved to a reject — see §4.

| Ticker | Market | YES bid/ask | Vol 24h | OI | Cluster | Disposition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL03 | GPT-5.6+ before Jul 3 | 15 / 16 | 20,370 | 14,289 | gpt-5.6-release | reject — edge eaten |
| KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10 | GPT-5.6+ before Jul 10 | 39 / 41 | 2,989 | 3,344 | gpt-5.6-release | reject — 24h repricing |
| KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL31 | GPT-5.6+ before Jul 31 | 68 / 69 | 6,148 | 19,602 | gpt-5.6-release | reject — no depth |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.390 | H200 price > $4.39 by Jun 30 | 90 / 93 | 7,802 | 13,129 | gpu-compute-price | reject — source |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.590 | H200 price > $4.59 by Jun 30 | 91 / 93 | 3,754 | 13,086 | gpu-compute-price | reject — source |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.790 | H200 price > $4.79 by Jun 30 | 91 / 92 | 3,648 | 5,275 | gpu-compute-price | reject — source |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.990 | H200 price > $4.99 by Jun 30 | 89 / 93 | 13,774 | 20,546 | gpu-compute-price | reject — at-the-money |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-3.190 | H200 price > $3.19 by Jun 30 | 91 / 94 | 3,742 | 5,681 | gpu-compute-price | reject — source |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-3.390 | H200 price > $3.39 by Jun 30 | 93 / 96 | 4,500 | 6,124 | gpu-compute-price | reject — source |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-3.990 | H200 price > $3.99 by Jun 30 | 94 / 95 | 2,400 | 6,082 | gpu-compute-price | reject — source |
| KXH200Q-26JUN30-5.590 | H200 price > $5.59 by Jun 30 | 3 / 6 | 4,354 | 4,671 | gpu-compute-price | reject — priced tail |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13 | >13 SpaceX launches in June (≥14) | 89 / 94 | 7,843 | 46,961 | spacex-june-launches | reject — spread |

The H200 rungs share one underlying (the Jun-30 H200 index print) — they are one cluster, not nine independent edges. Adjacent compute ladders (A100, H100, B200, RTX 5090) were screened as the same class and carry the identical settlement-source problem. AI-leaderboard markets (“Best AI / Top Model / Top Coding AI” in June) were already resolved-in-practice (Anthropic/Claude leading, legs pinned at 0–1¢ or 97–99¢) and dropped at Stage 1. Gemini 3.5 Pro, GPT-6, New Glenn, Starship-from-Florida, FDA drug approvals, and nuclear-criticality markets were all dropped at Stage 1 for `volume24h` well below 1,500.

 3 

## 3 · Top picks — detail and thesis

**No contracts cleared the v3 screen.** There are zero numbered picks this run. This is a deliberate output, not a gap in coverage: see the three structural reasons in the lede and the per-candidate rejects in §4. The recommended action on a $1,000 book is to **hold 100% cash** and revisit when (a) the AI-release ladder settles into a stable price the market and I disagree on, or (b) a compute market migrates to a verifiable settlement source.

Two candidates are genuinely close and sit on the **watchlist** with explicit triggers — see Execution notes in §5.

 4 

## 4 · Recommended $1,000 portfolio

### Allocation

| Position | Cost | % of capital | Max payout | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Cash reserve** | $1,000 | 100% | $1,000 | $0 |
| Deployed (contracts) | $0 | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Total | $1,000 | 100% | $1,000 | $0 |

Total deployed **$0** · Cash held **$1,000 (100%)** · Max book payout **$1,000** · Blended EV **0%** · Dollar edge **$0**. Per v3 the cash floor is ~10% of capital; here the whole book is the floor because nothing else cleared.

### Cluster exposure

| Cluster | Deployed cost | % of capital | Cap (15%) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5.6-release | $0 | 0% | $150 | within cap |
| gpu-compute-price-jun30 | $0 | 0% | $150 | within cap |
| spacex-june-launches | $0 | 0% | $150 | within cap |
| gpt6-release | $0 | 0% | $150 | within cap |

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Per-pick cap | Deployed | # picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | $150 (15%) | $0 | 0 |
| MEDIUM | $70 (7%) | $0 | 0 |
| LOW | $30 (3%) | $0 | 0 |

### Risk profile

- **Worst case:** $0 at risk — the book cannot lose money. The real risk is _opportunity cost_ if one of the watchlist theses resolves my way.
- **Best case:** capital preserved and redeployed when a defensible edge appears.
- **Most-likely outcome:** several of the rejects resolve exactly as the market priced them (GPT-5.6 lands in mid-to-late July; the H200 index prints near $5; SpaceX clears ≥14 June launches) — confirming the slate was efficient and the no-trade call was right.
- **Concentration:** none. Zero exposure to any single underlying thesis.

### Execution notes & watchlist

- **Watchlist A — KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10 NO.** If the YES re-rallies back toward ~50¢ on near-term hype _without_ a concrete launch signal, a NO at ≤62¢ effective becomes attractive again (my P(no) ≈ 70%). **Trigger:** YES ≥ 0.48 with no OpenAI launch announcement. **Invalidator:** any credible GPT-5.6 release/canary confirmation.
- **Watchlist B — KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13 YES.** Near-locked at ~93%, but only buyable cleanly on a patient limit. **Trigger:** a resting YES offer appears at ≤0.92 (current ask is 0.94, a negative-edge cross). **Invalidator:** multiple launch scrubs through Jun 28 leaving the June count stuck at 13.
- **Hedges:** none needed at $0 exposure.
- **Limit discipline:** for any future entry in this category, use resting limits inside the spread — the top-of-book here is 1–100 contracts deep, so market crossing pays 3–7¢ of avoidable slippage.

 5 

## 5 · What I rejected and why

Every Stage-2 survivor that didn't make the cut is logged here and machine-tracked to settlement. If these rejects resolve as well as picks would have, the selection screen adds nothing — that's a finding worth knowing either way. Stage-3.5 entry-band cuts are called out explicitly.

### KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10 · would take NO · would-be MEDIUM eff. entry ~61¢ · favorite band

My P(NO, i.e. no GPT-5.6 by Jul 10) = **70%** · Market-implied P(NO) ≈ 59% · Cluster `gpt-5.6-release`

The cleanest directional thesis on the board — fade near-term GPT-5.6 release after OpenAI's heavily-anticipated June window collapsed (prediction-market odds for late-June fell from ~83% to ~18%). The problem is timing: this market **already did the move**. YES repriced from ~85¢ to ~41¢ in the last ~24 hours on the June miss (verified in the 5-min snapshot history). Buying NO now is chasing a same-direction move that already happened.

Reject: Stage-3 48h-move rule — the thesis is freshly priced in; my 70% vs the market's 59% is opinion, not an information advantage over a price that just absorbed the exact news I'd be trading on.

### KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL03 · would take NO · would-be deep favorite eff. entry ~85–90¢

My P(NO, no release in ~6 days) = **90%** · Market-implied P(NO) ≈ 84% · Cluster `gpt-5.6-release`

Directionally I agree the market won't ship in a specific 6-day window with no imminent signal. But after the same 24h repricing, NO already costs ~85¢, and the deployable depth sits at 0.88–0.90 effective (the deep yes-bid wall at 10–13¢), leaving ≤2¢ of residual edge.

Reject: deep favorite, edge eaten — fillable price ≈ true probability. Not worth the capital lock.

### KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL31 · would take YES · would-be MEDIUM eff. entry ~69¢ · favorite band

My P(YES, GPT-5.6 by end-July) = **71%** · Market-implied P(YES) ≈ 68% · Cluster `gpt-5.6-release`

July is the consensus release window, and the 91¢→69¢ repricing may have slightly overshot. But the top-of-book is ~1 contract at the 0.69 ask, then 0.73 / 0.79 — sizing 100+ contracts means >5¢ of slippage, which erases a 1–3¢ edge. Also freshly repriced.

Reject: Stage-3 slippage screen — can't size without paying ≥3¢. Watchlist-only via a patient 0.66–0.67 limit.

### KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.390 (representative of the H200/compute ladder) · would take YES · deep favorite eff. entry ~93¢

My P(YES) ≈ **96%** (conditional on a clean print) · Market-implied ≈ 91% · Cluster `gpu-compute-price-jun30`

This is the most tempting trap: deep book (thousands of contracts), a 4-day horizon, and a threshold ($4.39) 13% below the implied spot, so the GPU rental price physically can't fall through it in time. But the market settles off the **Ornn index (ornnai.com)**, whose live H200 value I could not independently verify (the site is JS-loaded and routes to a data portal I can't read). The implied spot (~$5.0–5.1, inferred from the cliff to the $5.19 rung at ~3¢) is the _market's_ number, not mine — so buying here is selling tail-insurance against an index I don't understand, with no information advantage.

Reject: Stage-3 source/definitional screen — settlement source not independently verifiable; no edge beyond the market's own implied spot. The entire A100/H100/H200/B200/RTX 5090 ladder class is rejected for the same reason.

### KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.990 · would take YES/NO · coin-flip near threshold at-the-money

My P(YES) ≈ **60%** · Market-implied ≈ 91% (but threshold ≈ implied spot) · Cluster `gpu-compute-price-jun30`

Unlike the lower rungs, $4.99 sits right at the implied settlement spot — small index noise flips it. That makes it effectively a coin-flip on the index's exact print, dressed as a 91¢ favorite.

Reject: Stage-3.5 — at-the-money to an unverifiable source; flip risk on settlement noise, no defensible read.

### KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13 · would take YES · would-be HIGH eff. entry 94¢ ask · deep favorite

My P(YES, ≥14 June launches) = **93%** · Market-implied ≈ 89–91% · Cluster `spacex-june-launches`

The strongest _mechanical_ case on the board: by Jun 24 SpaceX had flown the 7th of 8 planned June Vandenberg launches plus ~6 Florida launches, so ≥13 are already in the books with the cadence (~one every 2–3 days) pointing to ≥14 by Jun 30. The market's own ladder agrees — modal final count is exactly 14. But the quote is **89 bid / 94 ask**: crossing to 0.94 for a ~93% event is _negative_ edge, and a positive entry (≤0.92) requires a patient limit into a gapped book with no guarantee of a fill.

Reject: Stage-3 slippage screen — not deployable without ≥3¢ of spread cost. Moved to Watchlist B with a ≤0.92 limit trigger. (Note: the higher rungs ≥15 are already active picks from a prior run.)

### KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01 · would take NO · priced/illiquid GPT-6 by Jul 1

My P(NO) ≈ **98%** · Market-implied ≈ 96–98% · Cluster `gpt6-release`

A full-integer GPT-6 jump before Jul 1 is ~nil and the market agrees (YES ~2–4¢). Thinly traded (vol24h ~545) and effectively fully priced as NO.

Reject: Stage-1 liquidity + no edge — correctly priced, nothing to add.

### KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14 · would take YES · excluded already live

≥15 June launches ≈ **9%** tail · Cluster `spacex-june-launches`

Listed for completeness: this rung is **already an active pick** in users' feeds from a prior run, so re-emitting it would duplicate the feed. Independently it's an unattractive ~9% tail.

Reject: already an active pick (duplicate-prevention rule).

 6 

## 6 · Sources

- OpenAI GPT-5.6 release timing & June slip — [Webiano: ChatGPT 5.6 release-date rumors](https://webiano.digital/chatgpt-5-6-release-date-rumors-point-to-june-but-openai-has-not-confirmed-it/); [AI Weekly: OpenAI plans June GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement”](https://aiweekly.co/alerts/openai-plans-june-gpt-56-as-meaningful-improvement); [Perplexity AI Magazine: GPT-5.6 leaks/codenames](https://perplexityaimagazine.com/ai-news/gpt-56-release-date-features-leaks-openai-2026/).
- GPT-5.5 baseline release (Apr 23, 2026) — [OpenAI: Introducing GPT-5.5](https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/); [Wikipedia: GPT-5.5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-5.5).
- SpaceX June 2026 launch cadence & count — [SpaceflightNow: West Coast Falcon 9 (Jun 24, “7th of 8 June Vandenberg launches”)](https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/06/24/live-coverage-west-coast-falcon-9-launch-to-continue-expansion-of-spacexs-starlink-network/); [Wikipedia: List of Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy launches](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches); [Wikipedia: Spaceflight launches Apr–Jun 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_April%E2%80%93June_2026).
- Compute-price settlement source — [Ornn (ornnai.com → ornn.com) GPU price index](https://www.ornn.com/) (Kalshi-declared settlement source for the H200/compute series; live values not independently verifiable).
- SpaceX launch settlement sources — [FAA Commercial Space launch data](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/); [SpaceX Launches](https://www.spacex.com/launches).
- Live market state & orderbooks — [Kalshi public trade API](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2); price/volume history from the Kalshi DB mirror (`market_snapshots`).

**Data sources:** Kalshi read-only DB mirror (`trading_events`, `trading_markets`, `market_snapshots`) for population, rules, and 5-min price/volume history; Kalshi public API for live orderbooks; web search/fetch for primary-source grounding. Methodology v3 — conviction-weighted & EV-agnostic sizing, 60–90¢ favorite entry band, 15% per-cluster cap.

**Disclaimer:** Probabilities are subjective estimates, not guarantees. Prediction-market contracts can resolve to zero and you can lose 100% of capital at risk. This is research, not financial advice. v3 picks are cleared for auto-copy and count toward the public track record — which is precisely why a $0-deployed, all-cash week is reported plainly when the slate is efficient, rather than padded to hit a count.