# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (ensemble)

Date: 2026-06-29
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-29-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-ensemble

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (ensemble)

2026-06-29 · category **Politics** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 6 independent models
 (claude-opus-4.8, deepseek-r1-0528, gemini-3.1-pro-preview, kimi-k2-thinking, gpt-5.1, grok-4.20); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**2 picks** · $19 deployed of $1000 · 7 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL50` | Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in June 2026? | NO @ 20c | LOW | 23.7% vs 20c  edge 3.7c · spread 1.145 ·               4/6 agree | 57 ($11) | · claude-opus-4.8 NO 55 · deepseek-r1-0528 YES 88 · gemini-3.1-pro-preview YES 80 · kimi-k2-thinking NO 80 · gpt-5.1 YES 81 · grok-4.20 YES 68 |
|  | **Thesis:** Daily peaks routinely exceed target               **Rationale:** 2021-2024 data shows regular 55+ vessel days during normal operations; no evidence suggesting capacity degradation |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN28-T200` | Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026? | NO @ 19c | LOW | 21.5% vs 19c  edge 2.5c · spread 0.853 ·               4/6 agree | 40 ($8) | · claude-opus-4.8 YES 60 ✓ deepseek-r1-0528 NO 40 · gemini-3.1-pro-preview YES 81 ✓ kimi-k2-thinking YES 95 · gpt-5.1 YES 82 · grok-4.20 YES 78 |
|  | **Thesis:** 200 weekly transits is a very low threshold for Hormuz               **Rationale:** Daily average of 35-45 transits makes 200/week a near-certainty. Market pricing at 50% fails to account for base rate from IMF PortWatch historical data. |  |  |  |  |  |

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN28-T175` | Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.3c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-MBS` | Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet before Jul 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.2c < 2.0c) |
| `KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26JUL01` | Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.2c < 2.0c) |
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN28-T250` | Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.2c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B149` | Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.7c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B129` | Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.2c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B169` | Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.3c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.