What changed: the thesis played out completely. The inflated 14–15¢ YES was residual chatter from NPR's retracted five-minute report (Totenberg misheard "retirement announcements"), and it has since bled to 4–5¢. Sources close to Alito told CBS, ABC and Fox he is not retiring this year — he has hired clerks for the October term, has a book out in October, and intends to serve into at least 2027.
Why exit, not hold: NO exits at 95¢ against my ~95% probability — the market has fully caught up, so there is no edge in the remaining 5¢. The market closes in 23 days (outside the ~7-day hold window for capital-free positions), and a small tail remains: The Hill reports GOP senators still hope for a strategic pre-midterm "surprise." Banking +9¢ (+10.5%) and freeing the capital dominates. Liquidity is ample — ~2,800 contracts bid at the 95¢ exit level.