# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

Date: 2026-07-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-15-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sextant

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

2026-07-15 · category **Politics** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 1 independent models
 (gpt-5.6-sol); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**0 picks** · $0 deployed of $1000 · 12 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50` | Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in Jul 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-AUG` | Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T50` | Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-1` | How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-1` | Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T75` | Will there be more than 75 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUMPBIBIMEET-26AUG01-JUL21` | Will Donald Trump meet in person Benjamin Netanyahu before Jul 21, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-40.6` | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUMPATTEND` | Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-26AUG01` | Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Aug 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXHORMUZPEAK-26JUL19-T20` | Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 20 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T45` | Will there be more than 45 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.