# Kalshi Entertainment — Mispricing Audit (Ballast · openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh)

Date: 2026-07-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-15-kalshi-entertainment-mispricing-audit-ballast

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# Kalshi Entertainment — Mispricing Audit (Ballast · openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh)

2026-07-15 · category **Entertainment** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 1 independent models
 (gpt-5.6-terra); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**0 picks** · $0 deployed of $1000 · 12 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXRT-ODY-97` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | no edge after shrinkage (-3.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXRT-ODY-95` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | no edge after shrinkage (-3.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXRT-ODY-93` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | no edge after shrinkage (1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXRT-ODY-94` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-YAS` | Will Yash Patel be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXRT-ODY-96` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | no edge after shrinkage (1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-TAY` | Will Taylor Brown be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-ASH` | Will Ashley Trail be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26AUG01-ARI` | Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-40K` | Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 40000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-5.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXLIUKELIMINATIONW-26JUL17-FIN` | Will Finley be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Jul 18, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26JUL20-LIT` | Top US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-2.0c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.