# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-08-10

Date: 2026-08-10
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-10-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-10 · 3 triggered picks reviewed · quotes refreshed live from Kalshi

All three picks tripped the **capital_free** trigger (≥95¢) with ~22 days to a Sep 1 close. Verdict: **exit all three**. The two Hormuz NOs also carry a genuinely weakened thesis — a US–Iran–Oman reopening deal is reportedly days away, which is exactly the tail the original picks discounted. The Mar-a-Lago YES thesis is intact; that exit is purely about freeing capital parked at 95¢ for three weeks.

 Signal 718 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls >60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
EXIT

KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 718 · NO

Entry **92¢** → now **96¢** (peak 96.5¢)
New prob **92%** vs market-implied ~96%
capital_free
weakened

      The strait is still effectively closed — PortWatch logged ~2 transits on Aug 2 vs a 73/day baseline (day ~162 of closure). But the US, Iran and Oman are reportedly closing on an interim reopening deal (Axios, Aug 5; CNN, Aug 8) — the exact tail the pick priced at −4pts: a reopening plus queue-flush of ~355 stranded vessels could plausibly spike the 7dMA above 60 before Sep 1. Our fresh NO probability (~92%) is now below what 96¢ implies, so the last 4¢ over 22 days comes with negative edge. Book is deep (~77k contracts bid at 96¢) — exit cleanly.
    

 Signal 734 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls >60/day before Sep 1, 2026
EXIT

KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 734 · NO · same market as 718

Entry **92¢** → now **96¢** (peak 96.5¢)
New prob **92%** vs market-implied ~96%
capital_free
weakened

      The physical-floor argument still leans NO — Iran itself says full reopening awaits US concessions, insurers put normalization at months, and June's best reopening only reached a 7dMA of ~34. But with a deal reportedly imminent and ~3 weeks left, the >60 spike scenario is meaningfully more likely than the −2pts the pick assigned it. No edge remains at 96¢; holding is 4¢ of upside against 22 days of headline risk on a live negotiation. Exit.
    

 Signal 808 

Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026
EXIT

KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · signal 808 · YES

Entry **93¢** → now **95¢** (peak 95.5¢)
New prob **98%** vs market-implied ~95–96%
capital_free
intact

      Thesis fully intact: Mar-a-Lago is seasonally closed and press-pool reports place Trump at Camp David Jul 31, then Bedminster from Aug 1 — zero Florida trips this month. The named tail (a Palm Beach hurricane pulling a property visit) is not live: NHC's Aug 9 outlook shows no near-term Florida threat, though peak season runs through month-end. A zero-count can only confirm at month end, so this cannot resolve early — holding parks capital 22 days for the last ~3¢ against a residual weather/news tail. Take the 95¢ bid (2.5k contracts) and free the capital.
    

    Sentinel desk log · decisions mirrored in decisions.json · prices are live top-of-book at review time (Hormuz yes 3/4¢, Mar-a-Lago yes 95/96¢).