The thesis has, if anything, hardened. Section 702 lapsed June 12 after the House
rejected the last extension,
and the House left for recess and does not return until
Aug 31 — so any deal would need to pass
the House and be signed into law within ~24 hours of members returning to beat the Sep 1 cutoff.
Deseret News (Jul 29)
reports the program "will stay dark until September," and
Lawfare
sees "virtually no chance of reviving the program until mid-September." The one risk the original audit priced —
Jay Clayton's confirmation as DNI unlocking a bipartisan deal —
did materialize
(
Punchbowl), but it is moot for this
market's window.
Why exit anyway: NO is executable at 97¢ with 25 days to close — well past the ~7-day capital-free
cutoff. The remaining 3¢ isn't worth a month of locked capital plus the (tiny) tail of a lightning
Aug 31–Sep 1 legislative sprint. Take the 5¢ gain and redeploy.