# Kalshi Entertainment — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

Date: 2026-07-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-15-kalshi-entertainment-mispricing-audit-sextant

---
# Kalshi Entertainment — Mispricing Audit (Sextant · openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh)

2026-07-15 · category **Entertainment** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 1 independent models
 (gpt-5.6-sol); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**4 picks** · $149 deployed of $1000 · 8 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXRT-ODY-95` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 69c | HIGH | 94.0% vs 69c  edge 25.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 69 ($48) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 94 |
|  | **Thesis:** A current 98% score on 163 reviews makes a final score of at least 96 more likely than the book implies, but this information has just driven a very large move.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 96 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% from 163 reviews on July 15, giving a meaningful cushion above 95; the cleanest tail risk is a substantially less favorable wave of wide-release reviews before the snapshot. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-94` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 86c | HIGH | 98.0% vs 86c  edge 12.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 56 ($48) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 98 |
|  | **Thesis:** The live 98% score has a three-point cushion over the strict above-94 threshold, but the obvious information is no longer stale.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 95 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% from 163 reviews on July 15, making a fall below 95 unlikely; the cleanest tail risk is a materially harsher post-release review cohort. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-93` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 93c | MEDIUM | 99.0% vs 93c  edge 6.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 51 ($47) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 99 |
|  | **Thesis:** The live 98% score has a four-point cushion over the strict above-93 threshold, making YES highly likely but recently repriced.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 94 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% from 163 reviews on July 15, so many additional rotten reviews would be needed to fail; the tail risk is a sharp wide-release critic reversal or score-methodology correction. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXRT-ODY-97` | The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 13c | LOW | 15.0% vs 13c  edge 2.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 42 ($5) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 85 |
|  | **Thesis:** The live Rotten Tomatoes page shows 98% from 163 reviews, but retaining 98% through Monday is not sufficiently underpriced after the move.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 98 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% (159 fresh, 4 rotten; 163 reviews) on July 15, leaving little rounding cushion as wide-release reviews arrive; the cleanest tail risk to NO is that later reviews remain at least 97.5% fresh. |  |  |  |  |  |

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXALBUMEQUIV-ALB26JUL16-140K` | Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26AUG01-ARI` | Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-ASH` | Will Ashley Trail be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-YAS` | Will Yash Patel be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXALBUMEQUIV-ALB26JUL16-145K` | Will The Real Me by Future have above 145000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-7.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-TAY` | Will Taylor Brown be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-40K` | Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 40000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-2.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXLIUKELIMINATIONW-26JUL17-FIN` | Will Finley be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Jul 18, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.