# Sentinel — Position Review (PM) · 2026-07-18

Date: 2026-07-18
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-18-kalshi-sentinel-review-pm

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# Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-07-18 · 1 triggered pick reviewed · 1 hold / 0 exit / 0 skip

More than 100 Hormuz transit calls Jul 13–19, 2026?

KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T100
NO
capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: HOLD

      entry 72¢ → now 97¢ (peak 96.5¢ mark)  ·  live YES 2¢/3¢  ·  closes 2026-07-21 13:00Z (~3d)
    

| Original prob (NO) | 88% |
|---|---|
| Sentinel prob (NO) | 98% |
| Market-implied (NO) | ~97–98% |
| Source run | [2026-07-13-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel](https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-13-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel) |

Why hold: The thesis — blockade + strikes keep the weekly transit sum well under 100 — has only strengthened.
      The resolver, IMF PortWatch, shows 9–14 transits/day through Jul 12 (queried directly from its data API); since the market week began,
      traffic hit a two-month low (~14 on Jul 13),
      CENTCOM reinstated the naval blockade Jul 14 and US strikes on Iran continued through Jul 17,
      and live trackers show the strait effectively closed (~10 ships Jul 18 vs ~88 normal).
      With 5 of 7 days elapsed at ~10–14/day (≈60 cumulative), YES needs an implausible 20+/day surge across the final two days to clear 100.
      

      The capital_free trigger would normally force an exit at ≥95¢, but resolution is Tuesday morning — only ~3 days of locked capital for the last ~3¢, which beats crossing the spread today.
      Liquidity note: top-of-book NO bid is thin (63 contracts @ 97¢) — moot for a hold, but an exit would walk the book.

Sentinel desk log · decisions written to decisions.json · marks in packet were up to ~18h stale; all quotes above fetched live at review time.