# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (ensemble)

Date: 2026-07-20
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-ensemble

---
# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (ensemble)

2026-07-20 · category **Politics** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 6 independent models
 (claude-opus-4.8, deepseek-r1-0528, gemini-3.1-pro-preview, kimi-k2-thinking, gpt-5.1, grok-4.20); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**2 picks** · $47 deployed of $1000 · 10 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T60` | Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | YES @ 36c | MEDIUM | 39.6% vs 36c  edge 3.6c · spread 0.51 ·               5/6 agree | 77 ($28) | · claude-opus-4.8 YES 45 · deepseek-r1-0528 YES 40 · gemini-3.1-pro-preview NO 33 ✓ kimi-k2-thinking YES 45 · gpt-5.1 YES 35 ✓ grok-4.20 NO 72 |
|  | **Thesis:** typical weekly transits hover 50-65; narrow 7-day window with thin liquidity favors NO               **Rationale:** IMF PortWatch historical weekly aggregates for Hormuz rarely exceed 70 in calm periods. July is not peak disruption season. Market at 33.5¢ appears slightly rich given variance and short remaining data window (closes in ~1 day). Thin yes side depth limits size but thesis public and rules unambiguous. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXEOWEEK-26JUL18-0` | Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Jul 12, 2026 and Jul 18, 2026? | YES @ 6c | LOW | 9.7% vs 6c  edge 3.7c · spread 2.549 ·               6/6 agree | 328 ($20) | · claude-opus-4.8 NO 92 · deepseek-r1-0528 NO 30 ✓ gemini-3.1-pro-preview NO 1 ✓ kimi-k2-thinking YES 99 · gpt-5.1 NO 60 ✓ grok-4.20 YES 88 |
|  | **Thesis:** Massive mispricing: Trump consistently signs multiple EOs weekly; market at 5.5% implies 94.5% chance of zero EOs               **Rationale:** Trump has signed 70+ executive orders in his second term, averaging multiple per week. The probability of signing zero EOs in a full week is negligible. Market at 5.5% represents a severe mispricing likely due to low liquidity or misinterpretation of the contract. |  |  |  |  |  |

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXNEWTARIFFS-26JUL-AUG01` | Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.7c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL25-B149` | Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.4c < 2.0c) |
| `KXEOWEEK-26JUL18-1` | Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Jul 12, 2026 and Jul 18, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.3c < 2.0c) |
| `KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL24-40.9` | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics? | no edge after shrinkage (0.9c < 2.0c) |
| `KXCRUDEEXPORTBAN-26-AUG26` | Will the US impose a crude oil export ban in effect before Aug 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.2c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL25-B129` | Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.3c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL25-B209` | Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.1c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL25-B169` | Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.1c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL25-B189` | Will Donald Trump make between 180 and 199 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.2c < 2.0c) |
| `KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL25-T240` | Will Donald Trump make above 240 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.5c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.