# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (June 18, 2026)

Date: 2026-06-18
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-18-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit

Research date **2026-06-18** · Category **Politics** · Horizon **45 days** (through ~Aug 1, 2026) · Portfolio budget **$10,000** · 4 final picks across 4 independent theses.

 1 

## 1 · How this was researched

Starting universe: every **active** market in the Kalshi **Politics** category closing within 45 days, pulled from the live mirror (372 markets). The screen, in order:

- Joined `trading_markets` → `trading_events` for category; kept only `status='active'`, `close_time` inside the horizon.
- Cut `volume24h < 1500`, bid-ask spread `> 5¢`, fully-priced books (YES bid ≥95¢ / ask ≤5¢), and "what will X say / mention" noise markets. → **47 liquid candidates.**
- Excluded every ticker already live in the feed from prior runs (the $EXISTING_PICKS set) to avoid duplicate signals.
- For each survivor: read the **resolution rules** (the trap is usually in the wording), pulled 14-day intraday price/volume from `market_snapshots`, hit the live Kalshi orderbook for depth, and grounded a probability in **primary-source news** (wire reports, committee actions, the principals' own statements).
- Rejected anything where the rules were ambiguous, the edge was already eaten by a recent move, or I couldn't size it without >3¢ of slippage.

Everything below resolves to a binary $1 / $0. Probabilities are my subjective estimates from public information only — no private edge. Prices are as of 2026-06-18 12:03 UTC from the mirror, cross-checked against the live Kalshi API orderbook.

 2 

## 2 · Markets reviewed

| Ticker | Market (short) | YES bid/ask | Vol 24h | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCLAYTONCONF-…-JUN27 | Jay Clayton confirmed DNI before Jun 27 | 35 / 38 | 3,948 | PICK · BUY NO |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01 | Powell leaves Fed Board before Aug 1 | 12 / 14 | 2,195 | PICK · BUY NO |
| KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-AUG | Crypto market-structure bill law before Aug 1 | 17 / 18 | 24,030 | PICK · BUY NO |
| KXFISAEXTEND-…-26AUG01 | FISA 702 reauthorized into law before Aug 1 | 77 / 78 | 4,735 | PICK · BUY NO |
| KXFISAEXTEND-…-JUL01 | FISA 702 reauthorized before Jul 1 | 15 / 16 | 11,035 | PASS · priced |
| KXWATSONRNC | SCOTUS bars counting late mail ballots (Watson v. RNC) | 84 / 85 | 7,457 | PASS · priced in |
| KXHORMUZNORM-…-B260801 | Hormuz 7-day transit MA >60 before Aug 1 | 49 / 50 | 43,991 | PASS · efficient |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG | US–Iran nuclear deal before Aug 1 | 8 / 9 | 138,655 | PASS · thin premium |
| KX14AMENDCASE-26-AUG | Birthright-citizenship order takes effect before Aug 1 | 7 / 8 | 36,750 | PASS · definitional |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-AUG01 | Hegseth out as SecDef before Aug 1 | 15 / 16 | 8,240 | PASS · no catalyst |
| KXKASHOUT-26APR-AUG01 | Kash Patel out as FBI Dir before Aug 1 | 17 / 18 | 5,456 | PASS · no catalyst |
| KXLAGODAYS-26JUN-0 | Trump 0 Mar-a-Lago trips in June | 91 / 92 | 3,432 | PASS · priced |
| KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT | Trump attends UFC 329 (Jul 11) | 17 / 18 | 7,917 | PASS · no edge |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN19-* | RCP Trump approval bucket (closes Jun 19) | — | 6,317 | PASS · too tight |

Plus the Hormuz weekly ladder, Truth-Social post-count, Pulte-acting-DNI (94¢), and the "Anthropic Fable 5" series — all reviewed and rejected (see §5).

 3 

## 3 · The picks

Ordered by how _defensible_ the edge is — source quality, unambiguous rules, and orderbook depth — not by raw EV. All four are **BUY NO**. NO prices shown are what you pay; NO ask = 100 − YES bid.

 PICK 1 

Pick 1 — KXCLAYTONCONF-26JUN11-JUN27 · BUY NO @ 0.64
High Conviction

### Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as DNI before June 27, 2026?

CurrentYES 35 / 38 → NO ≈ 65¢ (limit 0.64, scale in)
My true probYES (confirmed by Jun 27) ≈ 9% → NO ≈ 91%
EdgeNO fair ≈ 91¢ vs pay 64¢ → +27¢, ≈ +42% at fill
Close2026-06-27 03:59 UTC · OI 10,680 · vol24h 3,948

**Thesis.** The market still prices a ~36% chance Clayton is confirmed in the next nine days. But on **June 17** President Trump personally **cancelled** the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing — he directed his own nominee not to appear — and tied the whole process to unrelated demands. A Senate confirmation requires a hearing, a committee vote, floor cloture and a final vote; none of that can happen by June 27 when the President is the one freezing it.

- Clayton was nominated June 11; Thune/Cotton initially fast-tracked him, with a hearing set for **2 p.m. Wed June 17** ([The Hill, Jun 16](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5922519-senate-jay-clayton-dni-fisa/)).
- Overnight June 16–17, Trump posted that he was **delaying the nomination**, pressuring the Senate to attach the SAVE America Act to FISA reauthorization ([NPR, Jun 17](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/17/nx-s1-5859298/jay-clayton-confirmation-hearing-director-of-national-intelligence); [CBS, Jun 17](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jay-clayton-senate-confirmation-hearing-director-of-national-intelligence/)).
- The committee then **scuttled the hearing**; Trump added a second condition — confirmation of Jamie McDonald as a US Attorney — before he'd let Clayton proceed ([CNBC, Jun 17](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/jay-clayton-dni-hearing-congress-trump-cancel.html); [The Hill, Jun 17](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5929200-clayton-dni-trump-fisa-702/)).
- Rules are clean: resolves YES only if Clayton is **"the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18 [here, Jun 27]"** — a hard, checkable Senate-floor event.

Cleanest way to lose: Trump abruptly cuts his SAVE-Act/McDonald deal in the next few days and the Senate rams a confirmation vote through before June 27. Possible, but a full committee-and-floor sequence in <9 days after a presidentially-ordered cancellation is a steep ask.

**Price action:** YES traded ~57¢ on Jun 12 on the fast-track story, then fell to 35¢ as the cancellation hit — the move has started but, at 91% fair, NO still has ~27¢ of edge. **Liquidity:** top of book is thin; post a 0.64 NO bid and accumulate over a day or two rather than sweeping.

 PICK 2 

Pick 2 — KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01 · BUY NO @ 0.88
High Conviction

### Will Jerome Powell leave the Fed Board of Governors before Aug 1, 2026?

CurrentYES 12 / 14 → NO ≈ 88¢ (limit 0.88)
My true probYES (announces/leaves by Aug 1) ≈ 5% → NO ≈ 95%
EdgeNO fair ≈ 95¢ vs pay 88¢ → +7¢, ≈ +8% at fill
Close2026-08-01 03:59 UTC · OI 65,778 · vol24h 2,195

**Thesis.** This resolves YES only if Powell **announces or actually leaves** the Board of Governors. He has done the opposite, repeatedly and on the record: he handed the chair to Kevin Warsh (sworn in **May 22, 2026**) but is explicitly **staying on as a governor** — his term runs to **2028** — framing it as a stand for Fed independence. A near-certain NO that the market is leaving at 12–14¢.

- Powell confirmed on **April 29, 2026** he will remain on the board after his chairmanship ends ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/29/nx-s1-5802911/federal-reserve-meeting-jerome-powell-kevin-warsh); [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate); [PBS NewsHour](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/powell-says-he-will-stay-on-fed-board-after-chair-term-ends-addressing-trumps-attacks)).
- He said he'll stay **until the DOJ renovation probe "well and truly" concludes** and the Fed has fought off the attacks on its independence — i.e., a deliberate intent _not_ to leave near-term.
- Warsh's appointment is official and dated ([Federal Reserve, May 15](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260515a.htm)) — so "Powell out as _chair_" is already settled and does **not** trigger this market, which is specifically about the _governor_ seat.

Cleanest way to lose: the administration forces him out before Aug 1 — a "for cause" removal via the DOJ probe that actually sticks, or Powell reversing under pressure. Removing a sitting governor is legally contested and slow; he has signaled he would fight it. Low, but it's the real tail.

**Liquidity:** deep — ~$4k of YES-bid depth within 3¢, so a $2,000–3,000 NO fill near 88¢ is realistic. This is a high-confidence, modest-return income leg, not a home run.

 PICK 3 

Pick 3 — KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-AUG · BUY NO @ 0.83
Medium Conviction

### Will a crypto market-structure bill become law before Aug 1, 2026?

CurrentYES 17 / 18 → NO ≈ 83¢ (limit 0.83)
My true probYES (signed into law by Aug 1) ≈ 12% → NO ≈ 88%
EdgeNO fair ≈ 88¢ vs pay 83¢ → +5¢, ≈ +6% at fill
Close2026-08-01 14:00 UTC · OI 95,547 · vol24h 24,030

**Thesis.** The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R.3633) is moving but nowhere near the finish line. To resolve YES it must **become law** — full Senate floor passage (60 votes, with only two Democrats aboard in committee), reconciliation with the House text, _and_ a presidential signature — all before Aug 1, while several big-ticket disputes are unresolved and the Senate calendar is jammed ahead of the August recess.

- Cleared Senate Banking **15–9** in mid-May and was reported by the Senate **June 1** ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/clarity-act-congress-crypto-senate.html); [ABA Banking Journal](https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/05/senate-banking-committee-releases-text-of-crypto-bill-ahead-of-vote/)).
- An **ethics/conflict-of-interest provision** (barring officials' personal crypto stakes) remains a Democratic dealbreaker still being negotiated ([Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/05/13/crypto-clarity-act-senate-markup/)).
- The White House's July-4 target has slipped; lawmakers now float **"end-of-July or even early August"**, and analysts note the bill "depends on the Senate getting a lot of non-crypto work done" first ([CoinDesk, Jun 2](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/06/02/clarity-act-survival-depends-on-the-u-s-senate-getting-a-lot-of-non-crypto-work-done)).

Cleanest way to lose: leadership clears the floor and the House-Senate gap in a late-July sprint and Trump signs before Aug 1. Not impossible given Republican enthusiasm — but every step has to land inside a four-week, recess-shortened window.

**Liquidity:** good — ~$1.7k of depth at 83–84¢ NO and ~$3.5k within 5¢. **Note:** the desk already holds the before-Jul-1 version (NO); this is the longer-dated cousin and a separate contract.

 PICK 4 

Pick 4 — KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-26AUG01 · BUY NO @ 0.24
Low Conviction

### Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized into law before Aug 1, 2026?

CurrentYES 77 / 78 → NO ≈ 23¢ (limit 0.24, scale in)
My true probYES (reauth signed by Aug 1) ≈ 58% → NO ≈ 42%
EdgeNO fair ≈ 42¢ vs pay 24¢ → +18¢, ≈ +75% at fill (high variance)
Close2026-08-01 14:00 UTC · OI 9,011 · vol24h 4,735

**Thesis.** The market prices 77% that 702 is reauthorized by Aug 1. I think that's too confident, for two structural reasons. **(1) There is no forcing deadline.** The statute lapsed at midnight **June 12**, but surveillance legally continues under FISC certifications approved in March 2026 that run to ~**March 2027** — so the intelligence community can wait. **(2) It is now a multi-player hostage standoff** with no obvious July offramp.

- 702 hit its statutory sunset **June 12, 2026**; agencies keep operating under the March FISC certs ([TechTimes](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318247/20260611/section-702-expires-tonight-warrantless-nsa-surveillance-runs-through-2027-anyway.htm); [Cato](https://www.cato.org/blog/fisa-section-702-lapse-assured-thankfully)).
- Trump is conditioning reauthorization on passage of the **SAVE America Act** (a documentary-proof-of-citizenship voter bill Democrats reject) _and_ on confirming his US-Attorney pick ([NPR, Jun 17](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/17/nx-s1-5859298/jay-clayton-confirmation-hearing-director-of-national-intelligence); [CNBC, Jun 17](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/jay-clayton-dni-hearing-congress-trump-cancel.html)).
- From the other side, **Democrats have vowed not to reauthorize 702 unless Bill Pulte is removed** from the acting-DNI post ([The Hill, Jun 17](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5929200-clayton-dni-trump-fisa-702/)) — i.e., two independent blockers, not one.
- The reform fight has already dragged two-plus years and produced the first statutory lapse since 2018 — base rate for a clean six-week resolution is not 77%.

Cleanest way to lose: a July grand bargain. Republicans control both chambers and many want 702 back; if Trump extracts even a partial SAVE-Act win, leadership can move fast and sign before Aug 1. This is a genuine coin-flip forecast on a fluid negotiation, which is why it's Low Conviction and small.

**Why Low, not Medium:** the edge is a probabilistic call on a live negotiation (not a near-certain fact), **and** the book is thin — only ~$340 of YES-bid depth near 23–25¢. Size small, post NO bids at 0.24 and let them fill; do not chase above ~0.27.

 4 

## 4 · Recommended $10,000 portfolio

Deploy **$9,000**; hold **$1,000 (10%)** in reserve for opportunistic adds (esp. to Pick 4 if it fills cheap, or Pick 1 on any pop in YES). All entries via limit orders.

| # | Ticker | Side | Limit (NO) | Contracts | Capital | Max payout | EV ¢/ct | EV % | Conv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KXCLAYTONCONF-…-JUN27 | NO | 0.64 | 4,375 | $2,800 | $4,375 | +27 | +42% | High |
| 2 | KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01 | NO | 0.88 | 2,954 | $2,600 | $2,954 | +7 | +8% | High |
| 3 | KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-AUG | NO | 0.83 | 3,373 | $2,800 | $3,373 | +5 | +6% | Medium |
| 4 | KXFISAEXTEND-…-26AUG01 | NO | 0.24 | 3,333 | $800 | $3,333 | +18 | +75% | Low |
|  | Total deployed |  |  | 14,035 | $9,000 | $14,035 |  | ≈+24% |  |

Deployed $9,000 · Max payout $14,035 (max profit $5,035) · Expected profit ≈ $2,150 · Blended EV ≈ +24% on capital at risk · Reserve $1,000.

### Risk profile

- **Worst case** (all four NO lose): −$9,000. Requires Clayton confirmed by Jun 27 _and_ Powell off the board _and_ CLARITY signed _and_ 702 reauthorized — jointly remote.
- **Best case** (all win): +$5,035 (payout $14,035).
- **Most-likely** (Picks 1–3 win, Pick 4 loses): +$1,575 +$354 +$573 −$800 ≈ **+$1,702**.
- **Concentration by thesis.** Three independent drivers — a Fed-personnel fact (Powell), a legislative-calendar race (CLARITY), and the Trump↔Senate FISA/SAVE-Act standoff. **Picks 1 and 4 share that last catalyst:** a fast, clean Trump deal could let Clayton be confirmed _and_ 702 reauthorized together. That correlated tail is the single biggest risk, which is why Pick 4 is kept to $800 — Pick 1 only needs the standoff to outlast _June 27_, a much shorter fuse than Pick 4's Aug 1.

### Execution notes

- **Limit-only.** Books are thin at the top on Picks 1 and 4 — post NO bids and accumulate over 1–2 sessions. Pick 1: bid 0.64, accept up to ~0.66 avg. Pick 4: bid 0.24, do not chase above 0.27. Picks 2–3 have real depth and can be filled near-market.
- **Invalidation / watch triggers:**

- **Pick 1 — exit/avoid** if the Senate reschedules the Clayton hearing _and_ sets a floor vote before Jun 27, or if Trump publicly drops his conditions.
- **Pick 2 — exit** on any Powell statement of intent to resign, or a credible "for cause" removal action that courts let proceed.
- **Pick 3 — exit** if the Senate schedules CLARITY floor time with the ethics provision resolved and a House-reconciliation path before recess.
- **Pick 4 — exit** on any SAVE-Act/FISA package clearing committee, or a clean-reauthorization bill getting Rules/floor time. This is the leg to cut fastest if the standoff thaws.
- **Hedge:** Picks 1 and 4 are a natural partial hedge on each other's timing — if you want to neutralize the "fast Trump deal" tail, the reserve can fund a small YES in the before-Jul-1 FISA market should it sag toward a few cents.

 5 

## 5 · What I rejected and why

| Ticker / series | Why it didn't make the cut |
|---|---|
| KXHORMUZNORM-…-B260801 | **Efficiently priced.** "7-day MA of transit calls >60" resolves off live IMF PortWatch / AIS data; Kalshi's own model and the 49–50¢ market already sit right at the coin-flip after the Trump–Pezeshkian reopening MOU. As of Jun 18 outbound traffic was still near-paralyzed but a backlog-clearing spike could flip it — I have no edge over a live-data market. (Sources: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/strait-hormuz-reopening-shipping-oil.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/why-restoring-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-traffic-won-t-be-easy).) |
| KXWATSONRNC | **Edge already eaten.** Watson v. RNC was argued Mar 23; a decision is expected by end of June and the conservative majority leaned toward the RNC. But YES already repriced 75→84¢ in a week on that consensus, and the resolution needs a _specific_ preemption holding — a narrower ruling wouldn't cleanly trigger it. Fairly priced; no margin of safety. |
| KXFISAEXTEND-…-JUL01 | **Thesis already in the price.** I agree 702 won't be reauthorized by Jul 1, but YES already collapsed 72→15¢ on the lapse + Trump's block. NO pays only ~15¢ for real headline risk — thin. The same view is expressed with far better asymmetry in the Aug 1 contract (Pick 4). |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG | **Thin premium + already a feed pick.** A full US–Iran nuclear deal in six weeks is unlikely, but NO pays only ~8¢. The before-Jul version is **already an active pick — excluded to avoid a duplicate.** |
| KX14AMENDCASE-26-AUG | **Definitional risk.** "Comes into effect for any period" is a fuzzy bar amid live nationwide-injunction litigation; a brief, partial, or stayed effect could spark a resolution dispute. Only 7¢ of premium for that ambiguity — not worth it. |
| KXHEGSETHOUT / KXKASHOUT | **No catalyst.** Cabinet-departure markets at 15–17¢ with no concrete reporting of an imminent exit. NO pays the same 15–17¢ for open-ended firing/headline risk — negative skew, pass. |
| KXLAGODAYS-26JUN-0 / KXPULTEDNI | **Already priced.** Trump-0-Mar-a-Lago-trips (91¢) and Pulte-acting-DNI (94¢) are near settled; <10¢ of juice for tail risk. |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN19-* / KXTRUTHSOCIAL-* | **Untradeable for this audit.** The approval-bucket ladder closes Jun 19 (too tight to fill without slippage and effectively decided); the Truth-Social post-count markets are noise with no reliable live feed. |
| KXFABLERESTORE-27-* ("Anthropic Fable 5") | **Cannot ground in primary sources.** No verifiable public reporting on this "Fable 5 access restored" storyline. With no defensible, citable evidence I will not stake capital — excluded on principle. |
| KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT | **No information edge.** Trump-attends-UFC-329 is a pure attendance guess at 17¢; nothing public to price it better than the market. |

Close cousins of several rejects are **already live picks** from prior runs (Hormuz before-Jul-1 NO, US–Iran before-Jul NO, Clayton before-Jun-24 NO, crypto before-Jul NO, Starmer before-Jul NO). Those were excluded from the candidate set up front to avoid duplicate feed entries; the picks above are all _new_ contracts.

 6 

## 6 · Sources

- **Clayton / DNI / FISA standoff:** [NPR (Jun 17)](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/17/nx-s1-5859298/jay-clayton-confirmation-hearing-director-of-national-intelligence) · [CBS News (Jun 17)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jay-clayton-senate-confirmation-hearing-director-of-national-intelligence/) · [CNBC (Jun 17)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/jay-clayton-dni-hearing-congress-trump-cancel.html) · [The Hill (Jun 17)](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5929200-clayton-dni-trump-fisa-702/) · [The Hill (Jun 16)](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5922519-senate-jay-clayton-dni-fisa/) · [Washington Times (Jun 17)](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/17/senate-confirmation-hearing-dni-nominee-clayton-postponed-trump-seeks/)
- **FISA 702 lapse & certification continuity:** [TechTimes](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318247/20260611/section-702-expires-tonight-warrantless-nsa-surveillance-runs-through-2027-anyway.htm) · [Cato Institute](https://www.cato.org/blog/fisa-section-702-lapse-assured-thankfully) · [EPIC](https://epic.org/fisa-section-702-almost-certain-to-expire-after-house-votes-against-extension-epic-continues-to-urge-reforms/)
- **Powell staying on the Fed Board:** [NPR (Apr 29)](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/29/nx-s1-5802911/federal-reserve-meeting-jerome-powell-kevin-warsh) · [CNN (Apr 29)](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate) · [PBS NewsHour](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/powell-says-he-will-stay-on-fed-board-after-chair-term-ends-addressing-trumps-attacks) · [Federal Reserve (May 15)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260515a.htm)
- **CLARITY Act / crypto market structure:** [CNBC (May 14)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/clarity-act-congress-crypto-senate.html) · [CoinDesk (Jun 2)](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/06/02/clarity-act-survival-depends-on-the-u-s-senate-getting-a-lot-of-non-crypto-work-done) · [Fortune (May 13)](https://fortune.com/2026/05/13/crypto-clarity-act-senate-markup/) · [ABA Banking Journal](https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/05/senate-banking-committee-releases-text-of-crypto-bill-ahead-of-vote/) · [Congress.gov H.R.3633](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633)
- **Hormuz (reject context):** [CNBC (Jun 18)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/strait-hormuz-reopening-shipping-oil.html) · [Bloomberg (Jun 16)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/why-restoring-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-traffic-won-t-be-easy)
- **Watson v. RNC (reject context):** [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_v._Republican_National_Committee) · [Bipartisan Policy Center](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/what-could-the-supreme-courts-decision-in-watson-v-rnc-mean-for-mail-voting/) · [Cornell LII (24-1260)](https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/cert/24-1260)
- **Market data:** Kalshi live mirror (`trading_markets`, `trading_events`, `market_snapshots`) and the public Kalshi orderbook API, snapshot 2026-06-18 12:03 UTC.

**Data & method.** Prices/volume from the Kalshi mirror and public orderbook API as of 2026-06-18; news from the primary sources linked above. Probabilities are my own subjective estimates from public information — there is no private-information edge in this report.

**Disclaimer.** This is research, not investment advice. Every contract resolves to $1 or $0; a "wrong" binary loses 100% of the stake. Prediction-market positions are speculative and illiquid — size accordingly and use limit orders. Edges are estimates and can be wrong.