# All-In Podcast — Charles & Chase Koch Date: 2026-05-12 Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-05-12-all-in-koch-predictions --- # Copy-the-Trade Report Charles & Chase Koch on How They Quietly Built a $150B Empire All-In Podcast · Published 2026-05-12 · Runtime 1:35:23 · 12 predictions · 7 bet recommendations across 3 matched predictions How to read this: for each prediction with a matching prediction market, the green BET YES or red BET NO badge tells you which side to take to copy what the speaker said. The price is what you pay per share today, and the dollar figure shows what $100 returns if the speaker is right. Click any card to open the live market. ## Audio scrubber — click a timestamp below to jump here Now playing: — · Watch on YouTube ↗ (All-In disabled iframe embedding on this video, so this report uses the audio.) 12Predictions 7Tradeable bets 1Direct matches 2Proxy matches 9No market Speaker: All Charles Koch Chase Koch Show: All predictions Direct match only Proxy match only No market only | Time | Speaker | Prediction | Copy the trade → | |---|---|---|---| | 10:45 | Charles Kochmedium medium | The trend of industries and companies specializing based on their comparative advantage, rather than attempting to be fully integrated across the value chain, will continue and accelerate. “And that's what we're seeing happening now. There's more specialization by comparative advantage.” business strategy | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 33:35 | Chase Kochhigh long | If Koch Industries fails to stay current with technological disruption and see what's coming, some of its core, capital-intensive businesses will become obsolete. “if we're not in the game on technology and we don't see what's coming, something's gonna happen... The, uh, some of our businesses are gonna become dinosaurs.” business strategy | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 53:00 | Charles Kochhigh long | Koch Industries will not go public as long as he is alive and influential, as he believes being private is essential to the company's long-term, principle-based strategy. “we had stars that wanted to go... take us public, and I said it'd be over my dead body” business strategy | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 1:10:00 | Chase Kochhigh medium | Driven by a post-COVID surge in dissatisfaction, the US will see significant growth in alternative education models like micro-schools, supported by favorable policies. “after COVID... it's 70 to 80% families are open to a completely... transform the education system. 'Cause everyone now understands that it's just broken.” education | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 1:14:40 | Charles Kochspeculative long | The United States is on a dangerous trajectory toward totalitarianism and socialism, driven by a societal focus on power and pleasure over purpose and contribution. “when you have a world that is based on power and pleasure, it's a slippery slope, slope to, to totalitarianism, authoritarianism, and socialism, and that's, that's what we're seeing today.” politics | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 1:18:00 | Charles Kochhigh long | If current destructive political and economic policies in the US continue, the country is headed for a severe societal decline or collapse. “I think we continue this, but we're going to hell in a basket.” economy | PROXY MATCH [BET YES Polymarket ↗ YES costs 22¢ **$100** → **$444** if Koch is right US recession by end of 2026? Why this side: Koch predicts severe societal decline; a recession is a specific form of this decline. $1,448,692 volume](https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026) [BET YES Manifold ↗ YES costs 23¢ **$100** → **$442** if Koch is right US recession in 2026? Why this side: Koch's prediction of 'going to hell in a basket' implies a severe economic downturn like a recession. $68,002 volume](https://manifold.markets/brod/us-recession-in-2026) [BET YES Manifold ↗ YES costs 19¢ **$100** → **$526** if Koch is right Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026? Why this side: A recession is a specific, measurable event consistent with Koch's prediction of severe societal decline. $410 volume](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-2-con) | | 1:23:50 | Chase Kochmedium long | The future of effective addiction treatment will shift from top-down government programs to more effective, bottom-up, community-based models. “relapse rates that were below 10%. So what we do is, like instead of like some top down program to handle addiction, go bet on Scott... He just hit a million people... That's a movement, right?” social change | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 1:25:30 | Charles Kochmedium medium | Argentina's economic reforms under Javier Milei, if successful, may serve as a model for how to reverse entrenched and failing entitlement systems in other countries. “maybe, uh, maybe Argentina, if he can pull off what he's doing, 'cause they were in worse shape.” politics | PROXY MATCH [CHECK MARKET Polymarket ↗ YES @ 18¢ Range/categorical market — read on platform to find your side. Argentina Annual Inflation 2026 Why this side: This is a range market for inflation levels, not a binary YES/NO question. $9,725 volume](https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-annual-inflation-2026) [CHECK MARKET Polymarket ↗ YES @ 51¢ Range/categorical market — read on platform to find your side. Argentina Presidential Election Winner Why this side: This is a categorical market asking for the winner, not a simple YES/NO question. $62,832 volume](https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-presidential-election-winner) [BET YES Manifold ↗ YES costs 60¢ **$100** → **$167** if Koch is right Will Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina? Why this side: Koch's prediction depends on Milei's success, which would likely lead to his reelection. $34,661 volume](https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-javier-milei-be-reelected-for) | | 1:27:00 | Charles Kochmedium long | Without significant deregulation to remove barriers like occupational licensing, capitalism in the U.S. will fail to provide economic mobility, leading to a major legitimacy crisis. “we've got to work for a system where we remove the barriers that are holding people back... And if we don't, we're go- we're gonna fail.” regulation | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 1:28:10 | Charles Kochhigh near | Protectionist tariffs will continue to harm the US economy by making goods more expensive for consumers. “set up all these tariffs which undermine the division of labor by comparative advantage, which makes everything more expensive.” economy | DIRECT MATCH [BET YES Polymarket ↗ YES costs 3¢ **$100** → **$3,125** if Koch is right 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Why this side: Koch decries a protectionist trend; a new 100% tariff would be an escalation of that trend. $46,158 volume](https://polymarket.com/event/100-tariff-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30) [BET YES Polymarket ↗ YES costs 6¢ **$100** → **$1,538** if Koch is right Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Why this side: Koch sees a harmful trend of setting up tariffs; an increase is a continuation of that trend. $33,607 volume](https://polymarket.com/event/tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30) [BET YES Manifold ↗ YES costs 9¢ **$100** → **$1,146** if Koch is right Will Trump raise the global Section 122 tariff rate to 15% before June 1, 2026? Why this side: Koch criticizes the harmful trend of tariffs; Trump raising them aligns with this observed trend. $405 volume](https://manifold.markets/HexNest/will-trump-raise-the-global-section) | | 1:28:40 | Chase Kochhigh medium | The cost of powerful AI tools will continue to fall dramatically, making them broadly accessible to the general population and not just a privileged few. “the cost of AI to get it in people's hands is dropping it just to an incredibly cheap level that, hopefully, everyone can have access to that.” AI | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | | 1:29:00 | Chase Kochmedium long | Widespread access to AI will enable individuals to dramatically accelerate their learning and self-improvement, potentially by a factor of 10x or 100x. “combine that with their gifts to unlock their potential and learn 10, 100X faster, that's... I mean, from an AI standpoint, that's, that's, that's our mindset on it.” AI | NO MARKET No matching market — this prediction is too vague or too long-horizon to bet on today. | **Method:** Predictions extracted by Gemini 2.5 Pro from segment transcripts in the staging Neon DB (podcast id `5351a171-6be9-4a4e-aba3-8cf7a4ce255d`). Market candidates pulled live from Polymarket (gamma-api `public-search`) and Manifold (`search-markets`); Kalshi has no public text-search API so it isn't included. Each candidate was filtered for genuine direct/proxy alignment, then a second Gemini pass chose the YES/NO side that matches the speaker's prediction. Prices are spot-priced when the report was generated and drift continuously — click through for live odds. **Payout math:** binary markets pay $1 per share if your side wins. So `$100 / buy_price = total payout if right`. A 22¢ YES share returns $4.55 per $1 you bet ($100 → $455). A 90¢ NO share returns $1.11 per $1 ($100 → $111). Profit is payout minus your stake. **Disclaimer:** nothing here is investment advice. Prediction-market access varies by jurisdiction (Polymarket blocks US users; Kalshi is US-only; Manifold is play-money). Spreads and slippage are real costs not modeled here.