# Sentinel — Position Review (PM) · 2026-08-20

Date: 2026-08-20
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-20-kalshi-sentinel-review-pm

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# Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-08-20 · 3 triggered picks reviewed · 2 exit / 1 hold · all theses intact — exits are capital-efficiency calls, not thesis failures

 ============ 718 ============ 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls >60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 718

Side **NO**
Entry **92¢** → now **99¢** (peak 99.5)
YES quotes **0 / 1**
Closes **Sep 1** (12d)
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 99¢
Our prob **99%** vs implied **~99.5%**

    The thesis didn't just hold, it hardened: the strait is effectively closed on day ~171 —
    straits.live / IMF PortWatch show 1 transit on Aug 16 against a 73/day
    baseline, war-risk insurance at 40× pre-crisis, and 364 hulls holding position
    (Lloyd's List brief, Aug 5;
    CNN, Aug 17).
    A 7dMA >60 needs ~420 AIS-tracked transits in a week — unreachable before Sep 1. But that's the point:
    NO bids 99¢ into ~398k contracts of depth, so there is nothing left to earn except 1¢ over 12+ days,
    and PortWatch's weekly publishing cadence can drag settlement past Sep 1. The audit itself priced several
    points of data-artifact risk on an "any print" resolver. Take the 99, free the capital.
  

 ============ 734 ============ 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls >60/day before Sep 1 (duplicate line)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 734

Side **NO**
Entry **92¢** → now **99¢** (peak 99.5)
YES quotes **0 / 1**
Closes **Sep 1** (12d)
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 99¢
Our prob **99%** vs implied **~99.5%**

    Same market and same evidence as signal 718 (this desk's second audit line on the ticker).
    Transits are ~1/day vs a 73/day norm, four ceasefires have collapsed, and normalization timelines run
    months — recovery to a >60 7dMA within 12 days is physically impossible. The capital_free rule applies
    cleanly: 99¢ bid, deep book, 12 days to close plus resolver lag. Exiting captures 99 of a possible 100
    with zero further tail; holding risks the data-revision quirk for one cent. Exit alongside 718.
  

 ============ 808 ============ 

Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026
KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · signal 808

Side **YES**
Entry **93¢** → now **97¢** (peak 97.5)
YES quotes **97 / 98**
Closes **Sep 1** (12d)
capital_free
intact
HOLD (exit ref 97¢)
Our prob **99%** vs implied **~97.5%**

    Tracking exactly as modeled: zero Mar-a-Lago trips through Aug 19. Trump's August has been Camp David
    (Jul 31–Aug 2), a California swing, and Bedminster weekends — Aug 7–9 around
    LIV Golf at Bedminster (Aug 6–9) and Aug 14–15 per
    WH pool reports — while the club is
    seasonally closed. The one priced tail (a Palm Beach hurricane trip) is quiet:
    WeatherTiger and
    NOAA
    show no Florida threat in the next 5–7 days in a below-normal, strong-El-Niño season, and the early-September
    Atlantic ramp lands outside the August window. At 97¢ the market gives us ~1.5¢ of real edge over 11 days
    with a hard public-record resolution — we'd re-enter here, so we hold. Bid depth is ample (~9.7k @ 97¢)
    if we need out later.
  

  Quotes fetched live from the Kalshi trade API at review time (2026-08-20 ~09:00Z). Exit prices are executable
  best-bid for our side. Hormuz depth at 99¢ NO ≈ 398k contracts; Mar-a-Lago depth at 97¢ YES ≈ 9.7k contracts.