2026-07-15 · category Politics · budget $1000
0 picks · $0 deployed of $1000 · 12 logged rejects
| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|
| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50 | Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in Jul 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.0c < 2.0c) |
KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-AUG | Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T50 | Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-1 | How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-1 | Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T75 | Will there be more than 75 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUMPBIBIMEET-26AUG01-JUL21 | Will Donald Trump meet in person Benjamin Netanyahu before Jul 21, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-40.6 | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUMPATTEND | Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-26AUG01 | Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Aug 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
KXHORMUZPEAK-26JUL19-T20 | Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 20 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL19-T45 | Will there be more than 45 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.