# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (8 Jun 2026)

Date: 2026-06-08
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-08-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit

Report date 8 June 2026 · Category Politics · Horizon 45 days · Portfolio $1,000 · 322 markets screened → 3 picks

Bottom line. The politics board this week is dominated by a US–Israel–Iran war and a stalled nuclear-deal track, but those markets are either definitional traps (what counts as a "deal"?) or efficiently priced. The clean edges are three small, near-dated domestic markets:
fade the TRUMPMAMDANI "meeting" that the market re-rated up on a misleading headline,
buy MAMDANIEO on a base-rate gap, and take a thin lean against a LEAVESTARMER exit.
No high-conviction names this week — sizing is deliberately modest and ~10% is held in reserve.

## 1 · How this was researched

1. **Screen.** Queried the live Kalshi DB mirror for every `active` market whose event `category = 'politics'` closing within 45 days (322 markets). Joined the latest `market_snapshots` row per ticker and cut: 24h volume < 1,500; bid-ask > 5¢; already-priced (YES bid ≥ 95¢ / ask ≤ 5¢); and "what will X say"/mention noise. → **23 candidates**.
2. **Rules.** Pulled the full resolution text for the 14 most-liquid candidates. Roughly half the apparent edges died here on definitions (see §5).
3. **Tape.** Pulled 14-day intraday history from `market_snapshots` to spot moves and check whether a thesis was already priced in.
4. **Book.** Hit the live Kalshi public orderbook (`/markets/{ticker}/orderbook`) for each finalist to confirm I can size without paying ≥3¢ of slippage.
5. **News.** Grounded every probability in primary sources — White House fact sheets, the House floor calendar, RealClearPolling, NYC Mayor's Office EO log, and named wire reporting. Sources in §6.

All prices are cents per contract (a contract pays $1.00 on YES). "NO @ 80" means buying the NO side for 80¢, paying out $1.00 if the event does _not_ happen.

## 2 · Markets reviewed

| Ticker | Market | YES bid/ask | Vol 24h | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXTRUMPMAMDANI-26JUN09 | Trump & Mamdani meet in person before Jun 9 | 20 / 21 | 5,757 | PICK · BUY NO |
| KXMAMDANIEO-26JUN13-T0 | Mamdani signs >0 non-emergency EOs Jun 7–13 | 12 / 13 | 3,395 | PICK · BUY YES |
| KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01 | Starmer leaves/announces leaving UK PM before Jul 1 | 13 / 14 | 4,636 | PICK · BUY NO |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL | US agrees to new Iran nuclear deal before Jul 1 | 8 / 9 | 99,850 | PASS — definitional |
| KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17… | Hormuz transit 7-day MA > 60 before Jul 1 | 7 / 8 | 36,674 | PASS — thin/2-way |
| KXNEWTARIFFS-26JUN-JUL01 | Trump issues new/increased tariff action in June | 90 / 92 | 6,594 | WATCH — empty book |
| KXRECNCH-26-JUN10 | House passes reconciliation bill before Jun 10 | 73 / 78 | 4,484 | WATCH — timing/5¢ |
| KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-JUN12 | FISA 702 reauthorization becomes law before Jun 12 | 11 / 14 | 2,100 | PASS — knife-edge |
| KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT | Trump attends UFC 329 (Jul 11, Las Vegas) | 22 / 25 | 6,098 | PASS — no signal |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-39.0 | Trump RCP approval below 39.0 on Jun 12 | 6 / 7 | 3,019 | PASS — ~fair |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUL01 | Hegseth out as SecDef before Jul 1 | 4 / 6 | 5,256 | PASS — fair longshot |
| KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUL01 | Kash Patel out as FBI Director before Jul 1 | 9 / 9 | 2,748 | PASS — fair longshot |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN13-* | Trump weekly Truth Social post-count buckets (9) | — | ~12k | PASS — sum 105.5, no arb |
| KXLAGODAYS-26JUN-* | Trump Mar-a-Lago trips in June (range set) | — | ~12k | PASS — ~fair |

Volume/price as of the latest 5-min snapshot, ~16:00Z 8 Jun 2026. The remaining ~9 screened candidates (UFC Freedom 250 celebrity-attendance markets, additional approval/Truth-Social legs) were celebrity-noise or duplicative and dropped.

## 3 · The picks

Ordered by conviction. Conviction reflects how defensible the edge is — source quality, how unambiguous the resolution rules are, and orderbook depth — _not_ raw EV. There are no HIGH-conviction names this week.

 PICK 1 

### Pick 1 — KXTRUMPMAMDANI-26JUN09 · BUY NO @ 0.80 · Medium conviction

"Will Donald Trump meet in person Zohran Mamdani before Jun 9, 2026?" · closes 2026-06-09 13:59Z (resolves in ~1 day)

**Mispricing thesis.** The _only_ contact window left before the Jun 9 close is tonight's NBA Finals Game 3 at Madison Square Garden, which both men are slated to attend. A "both at the Knicks game" headline pushed YES back up toward ~20¢ today — but Mamdani has gone out of his way to say he will _not_ be near Trump. The market is paying for an interaction the principal is actively avoiding.

Current: YES **20/21** → NO ask **80**
True P(meeting): **~12%**
NO fair value: **~88¢**
Edge: **~+8¢**
Return at fill: **~10%**

**Evidence.**

- Mamdani told reporters he will sit in "a very different section of the stadium" than the president and confirmed "I won't be courtside or in a suite" — and dodged whether he'd meet Trump, saying only "_if_ I do see him…" ([ABC News, 8 Jun 2026](https://abcnews.com/US/trump-mamdani-slated-cheer-knicks-finals-game-new/story?id=133649027)).
- Game 3 tips off Mon **June 8, 8:30pm ET** at MSG ([NBA.com](https://www.nba.com/news/knicks-carry-chance-to-sweep-2026-nba-finals-vs-spurs-into-game-3-at-madison-square-garden)) — i.e. _before_ the Jun 9 cutoff, so it is the live resolution event.
- Their prior meetings were formal Oval Office sit-downs (Nov 2025, Feb 2026) — there is no announced White House meeting before Jun 9 ([PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-and-mamdani-meet-in-oval-office-after-months-of-trading-insults)).
- Tape confirms the re-rate is shallow: the market traded ~52¢ on Jun 4 (when joint attendance first surfaced), collapsed to ~28¢ Jun 6–7 as Mamdani distanced himself, and is chopping 14–44¢ today — sitting at 20/21. The crowd keeps over-reacting to "same arena."

Cleanest way this loses: the two men cross paths at MSG and exchange a brief, photographed greeting that Kalshi rules an "in-person meeting." Two NYC-celebrity Knicks fans in the same building is a non-trivial path — hence MEDIUM, not HIGH, despite the strong sourcing.

Size: **550 contracts NO**
Limit: **0.81** (book fills ~0.805 avg)
Cost: **~$443**
Max payout: **$550**
EV: **~+$44**

**Liquidity:** ~287 contracts at NO 80, then ~1,360 more at NO 81 (resting YES bids of $57 @20¢ and $259 @19¢). 550 lots fill inside 1¢ of slippage.

 PICK 2 

### Pick 2 — KXMAMDANIEO-26JUN13-T0 · BUY YES @ 0.13 · Medium conviction

"Will Mamdani sign above 0 executive orders between Jun 7–13, 2026?" (non-emergency) · closes 2026-06-14 13:59Z

**Mispricing thesis.** This is a base-rate market. Mayor Mamdani has been an unusually prolific executive-order signer, yet the contract prices "at least one non-emergency EO this week" at only ~13%. His empirical weekly hit rate is closer to ~23–26%.

Current: YES **12/13**
Empirical weekly P: **~23–26%**
True P (discounted): **~19–20%**
Edge: **~+6¢**
Return at fill: **~46%**

**Evidence.**

- The public EO log shows **12 non-emergency executive orders** between Jan 1 and Jun 1, 2026, falling in roughly **5–6 distinct weeks of ~23** in office → an empirical ~23–26% chance of "≥1 in a given week" ([reviewmamdani.com/orders](https://reviewmamdani.com/orders); cross-checked against [NYC Mayor's Office EO releases](https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/01/executive-order-01)).
- His most recent was the Jun 1 "bedtime suspension" EO for the Knicks' Finals run — a non-emergency order, confirming he's actively signing this month ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/48940438/zohran-mamdani-new-york-knicks-nba-finals-2026-executive-order-beds)).
- Resolution is clean and objective: the Mayor's Office publishes every numbered EO, and emergency vs non-emergency is labeled on the order itself.
- Book opened ~19¢ on Jun 7 and the bid has since sagged to 12 — i.e. the market is drifting _against_ the base rate, not toward it.

Cleanest way this loses: his output is bursty (5 EOs in January, then a zero in March), and he just fired one on Jun 1 — so Jun 7–13 could simply be a quiet week with no policy roll-out, which is the modal outcome (most individual weeks are zeros). The edge is the base-rate gap, not a known catalyst; size accordingly.

Size: **1,800 contracts YES**
Limit: **0.13**
Cost: **~$234**
Max payout: **$1,800**
EV: **~+$108**

**Liquidity:** ~2,080 contracts resting at YES 13 (NO bid $271 @87¢). 1,800 lots fill at the limit with no slippage.

 PICK 3 

### Pick 3 — KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01 · BUY NO @ 0.87 · Low conviction

"Will Keir Starmer leave / announce leaving as UK PM before Jul 1, 2026?" · closes 2026-07-01 03:59Z

**Mispricing thesis.** A genuine Labour leadership crisis is under way, but the contract resolves YES only if Starmer actually _leaves or formally announces his intention to leave_ within a 3-week window — and he is publicly refusing to do either. This is a thin, honest lean, not a strong edge.

Current: YES **13/14** → NO ask **87**
True P(leave/announce): **~10%**
NO fair value: **~90¢**
Edge: **~+3¢**
Return at fill: **~3.4%**

**Evidence.**

- Starmer told cabinet he will remain and would stand in any leadership contest, noting the formal challenge process "has not been triggered" ([Al Jazeera, 12 May 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/12/starmer-to-face-split-cabinet-as-demands-for-his-resignation-mount)).
- As of 11 May, ~80–98 Labour MPs had called for him to go but 159 members publicly backed him — short of the numbers to force a quick exit ([2026 UK government crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_government_crisis)).
- The tape is flat: the market has sat in an 11–15¢ band for two weeks with no breakout, i.e. no fresh catalyst toward a near-term exit.

Cleanest way this loses: UK leadership crises move fast — a triggered confidence vote or a wave of cabinet resignations could produce a departure announcement well inside three weeks. With only ~3¢ of edge, this is a small position, not a core holding.

Size: **250 contracts NO**
Limit: **0.87**
Cost: **~$218**
Max payout: **$250**
EV: **~+$7**

**Liquidity:** very deep — thousands of contracts resting at YES 12–13 ($24.5k @12¢). No slippage concern.

## 4 · Recommended $1,000 portfolio

| Pick | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max payout | True P | EV ¢/ct | EV $ | Conv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRUMPMAMDANI | NO | 0.80 | 550 | 443 | 550 | 0.88 | +8 | +44 | Med |
| MAMDANIEO | YES | 0.13 | 1,800 | 234 | 1,800 | 0.19 | +6 | +108 | Med |
| LEAVESTARMER | NO | 0.87 | 250 | 218 | 250 | 0.90 | +3 | +7 | Low |
| TOTAL |  |  |  | 895 | 2,600 |  |  | +159 |  |

Deployed: **~$895**
Cash reserve: **~$105 (10.5%)**
Total max payout: **$2,600**
Aggregate EV: **~+$159**
Blended EV on deployed: **~+17.8%**

### Risk profile

- **Worst case (all three lose):** –$895 (full deployed stake). Requires Trump & Mamdani to meet, Mamdani to sign no non-emergency EO Jun 7–13, _and_ Starmer to quit/announce — three unrelated events, so jointly unlikely.
- **Best case (all three win):** payout $2,600 on $895 → **+$1,705**. Dominated by the 1,800-lot MAMDANIEO leg.
- **Most-likely outcome:** Pick 1 and Pick 3 resolve in our favour (~88% and ~90%) and Pick 2 loses (~80%). That nets roughly **(550 + 250) − 234 − [stake on 1] ≈ +$155** after costs — i.e. the two NO legs pay for the speculative YES lottery and then some.
- **Concentration:** two of three names reference **Mamdani**, but on _opposite_ and unrelated mechanics (a Trump meeting vs his own EO cadence) — they are nearly uncorrelated and even slightly offsetting (a high-activity Mamdani week helps Pick 2 but is irrelevant to Pick 1). Capital is concentrated by _count_ in MAMDANIEO but by _dollars_ the book is balanced (~$443 / $234 / $218).

### Execution notes

- **Use limit orders only.** Post Pick 1 NO at 0.80 and step to 0.81 if unfilled before tip-off; post Pick 2 YES at 0.13 (do not chase above 0.14); Pick 3 NO at 0.87.
- **Pick 1 is time-boxed:** it resolves on tonight's game. If a credible report of a Trump–Mamdani greeting/handshake at MSG hits the wire, the thesis is dead — do not average down; the position is meant to be left to expire.
- **Pick 2 watchlist trigger:** if the NYC Mayor's Office posts any non-emergency EO dated Jun 7–13, the contract is effectively decided YES — take profit rather than wait for settlement if it gaps toward 0.90+.
- **Pick 3 invalidation:** a triggered Labour confidence vote, a coordinated cabinet-resignation wave, or any Starmer statement setting a departure timetable. Any of those → close the NO immediately; the 3¢ edge does not survive a real challenge.
- **Reserve (~$105):** hold for an opportunistic add if Pick 1 NO is offered ≥0.84 into tip-off, or if the FISA-702 / reconciliation timing markets (§5) resolve their ambiguity in the next 48h.
- **Hedges:** none required — positions are small, short-dated, and largely independent.

## 5 · What I rejected and why

- **KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT — US–Iran nuclear deal before Jul 1 @ 8/9¢ (99,850 vol).** The single most-traded politics market, but a **definitional trap**. The thing being negotiated is a 60-day ceasefire MOU that reopens Hormuz and only commits Iran to _negotiate_ enrichment limits — does that resolve a "new Iran–US _nuclear deal_"? Iran publicly rejected the US proposal on Jun 9 and the enrichment-moratorium gap is wide (Iran 5 yrs vs US 20). A dispute over what counts could flip resolution either way, so per the screen's own rule we pass. ([Axios](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-strait-hormuz-sanctions-nuclear), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/trump-iran-deal-hormuz-nuclear-war.html))
- **KXHORMUZNORM — Hormuz 7-day transit MA > 60 @ 7/8¢.** Traffic is crushed (Iran coordinating ~26 transits/24h vs a ~138/day baseline) since the Feb 28 war, so NO looks right — but buying NO at ~92 returns only ~8% and a signed deal would reopen the strait and spike traffic fast. Two-sided and thin; no deployable edge. ([Hormuz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/iran-says-it-coordinated-crossing-of-26-vessels-out-of-strait-of-hormuz))
- **KXNEWTARIFFS — new/increased June tariff action @ 90/92¢.** Directionally near-certain given Trump's cadence, but the **orderbook is empty** right now — I can't fill near 92 without becoming the market. And the only confirmed June action so far (the Jun 1 steel/aluminum/copper proclamation) mostly _cut_ rates, so "new or increased" isn't yet clearly satisfied. Watchlist, not a trade. ([WH fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/06/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-updates-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-and-copper-imports/))
- **KXRECNCH — House passes reconciliation bill before Jun 10 @ 73/78¢.** The Senate passed the ~$72B immigration-enforcement reconciliation bill on Jun 5; the House is in session Mon–Thu (Jun 8–11) and cancelled a prior Friday vote over attendance. The whole question is whether the floor vote lands Tue/Wed (YES) or slips to Thu (NO, after the close) — a coin-flip on timing inside a 5¢ spread. No defensible edge. ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/05/nx-s1-5846807/senate-weaponization-fund-reconciliation-vote-immigration-enforcement), [House floor](https://docs.house.gov/floor/))
- **KXFISAEXTEND — FISA 702 reauthorization becomes law before Jun 12 @ 11/14¢.** The 45-day stopgap expires Jun 12 and a long-term reauthorization **stalled in the Senate on Jun 5**. Whether Congress lands another last-minute extension "before Jun 12" is a knife-edge on both timing and on whether a stopgap counts as "reauthorizes." Too much resolution risk. ([Roll Call](https://rollcall.com/2026/06/05/fisa-reauthorization-stalls-in-early-morning-senate-vote/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/fisa-section-702-congress-extension.html))
- **KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-39.0 — Trump RCP approval below 39.0 @ 6/7¢.** Tempting (some aggregators show ~38–39%), but the full **approval bucket ladder reveals the market's implied RCP is ~40.2–40.5** — the heaviest buckets are 39.9–40.7. From there, a sub-39.0 print by Jun 12 needs a ~1.3-pt drop in a sticky average in days. The 6¢ is roughly fair, not cheap. ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5894688-trump-disapproval-rating-average-may/))
- **KXTRUMPUFC — Trump attends UFC 329 (Jul 11, Las Vegas) @ 22/25¢.** Trump is a UFC regular and McGregor–Holloway 2 is a marquee card, but there is **no announced plan**, and the rival White-House-area "UFC Freedom 250" (Jun 15) is where his involvement is centered. With no public signal, 22–25¢ is a fair guess, not a mispricing. ([UFC 329](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_329))
- **KXHEGSETHOUT @ 4/6¢ and KXKASHOUT @ 9¢ — cabinet exits before Jul 1.** Hegseth is the one doing the firing (he purged the Army chief of staff and Navy secretary amid the Iran war), not the one being fired; no sign Patel is on the brink. Correctly-priced longshots — no edge. ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/politics/hegseth-removes-randy-george-army-chief-of-staff))
- **KXMAMDANIEO emergency-vs-non-emergency caveat.** Note the resolution requires a _non-emergency_ EO; his May 20 FIFA World Cup parks order was an _emergency_ order and would not count. That's baked into Pick 2's ~19–20% estimate (and is part of why it's only MEDIUM).
- **KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN13 post-count ladder & KXLAGODAYS trip set.** Checked for structural arb: Truth-Social bucket mids sum to **105.5** (an overround — no free money), and Mar-a-Lago "0 trips in June" at ~93¢ is reasonable (Trump summers at Bedminster, not Florida). Both efficient.

## 6 · Sources

- ABC News — [Trump, Mamdani slated to attend Knicks Finals game; Mamdani "very different section"](https://abcnews.com/US/trump-mamdani-slated-cheer-knicks-finals-game-new/story?id=133649027)
- NBA.com — [2026 NBA Finals Game 3 (Jun 8, MSG)](https://www.nba.com/news/knicks-carry-chance-to-sweep-2026-nba-finals-vs-spurs-into-game-3-at-madison-square-garden)
- PBS NewsHour — [Prior Trump–Mamdani Oval Office meetings](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-and-mamdani-meet-in-oval-office-after-months-of-trading-insults)
- reviewmamdani.com — [Mamdani executive-order log (Jan–Jun 2026)](https://reviewmamdani.com/orders)
- NYC Mayor's Office — [Executive Order releases](https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/01/executive-order-01)
- ESPN — [Mamdani Jun 1 bedtime-suspension EO](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/48940438/zohran-mamdani-new-york-knicks-nba-finals-2026-executive-order-beds)
- Al Jazeera — [Starmer defiant amid resignation calls](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/12/starmer-to-face-split-cabinet-as-demands-for-his-resignation-mount)
- Wikipedia — [2026 UK government / Labour leadership crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_government_crisis)
- Axios — [What's inside the Iran deal Trump is close to signing](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-strait-hormuz-sanctions-nuclear) · CNBC — [Trump ends Iran meeting without final determination](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/trump-iran-deal-hormuz-nuclear-war.html)
- Wikipedia — [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis) · Al Jazeera — [Iran coordinates 26-vessel transit](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/iran-says-it-coordinated-crossing-of-26-vessels-out-of-strait-of-hormuz)
- White House — [Jun 1 metals tariff proclamation fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/06/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-updates-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-and-copper-imports/)
- NPR — [Senate passes reconciliation bill (Jun 5)](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/05/nx-s1-5846807/senate-weaponization-fund-reconciliation-vote-immigration-enforcement) · [House floor schedule](https://docs.house.gov/floor/)
- Roll Call — [FISA 702 reauthorization stalls](https://rollcall.com/2026/06/05/fisa-reauthorization-stalls-in-early-morning-senate-vote/) · CNBC — [45-day FISA 702 extension](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/fisa-section-702-congress-extension.html)
- The Hill — [Trump RCP disapproval at record; approval avg](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5894688-trump-disapproval-rating-average-may/)
- CNN — [Hegseth ousts Army chief of staff](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/politics/hegseth-removes-randy-george-army-chief-of-staff) · Wikipedia — [UFC 329 (Jul 11, Las Vegas)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_329)

**Data sources.** Live Kalshi DB mirror (`trading_markets`, `trading_events`, `market_snapshots`) for the screen, prices, volume and 14-day tape; Kalshi public API orderbooks for depth; web search/fetch of the primary sources above for priors. Snapshot prices as of ~16:00Z, 8 Jun 2026.

**Disclaimer.** Not investment advice. Every probability here is a _subjective_ estimate, and prediction-market contracts can resolve to **zero** — you can lose 100% of any stake. Edges are small and depend on resolution rules being read as written; read each market's official rules before trading. Prices and books move continuously and may already differ from those quoted.