One position woke the desk today, on a capital_free trigger. Thesis re-checked against live reporting and the Kalshi book; decision below.
Thesis check — intact. Hegseth is fully in post and operating as of Aug 12: he spent early August lobbying Congress for a $350B Pentagon funding request, headlined the Joint Base Lindsey Graham renaming on Aug 10, and Trump publicly rejected removal rumors this month — “smart guy… one of my best,” no plans to remove him. He is the one firing others (Army chief, Navy secretary), not the one being fired.
Why exit anyway. This is the capital_free case the desk exists for: at our own 96% probability, the remaining 3.9¢ over 20 days of locked capital carries essentially zero edge — the market has fully caught up to the original mispricing (entry thesis put NO at 96%; market now prices it there). Meanwhile the left tail is fatter than at entry: a reported Camp David blowup with Trump over munitions stockpiles, GOP senators souring on his leadership mid-Iran-war, and DeSantis replacement chatter. Tiebreak: we would not open NO at 96.1¢ today, so we sell to the 96.1¢ bid (deep book, ~1,700 contracts) and book +4.1¢.
Sources checked: Kalshi live book (Aug 12), NBC News, CNN, The Hill, Al Jazeera, RVM/WaPo-derived reporting.