Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-07-10 · 1 triggered pick reviewed · 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
President signs more than 2 executive orders, Jun 28 – Jul 4, 2026 KXEOWEEK-26JUL04-2
NO capital_free thesis: intact decision: EXIT @ 99¢
Entry87¢
Now (executable)99¢
Peak mark99.5¢
Our prob (NO)99%
YES bid/ask0 / 1¢
ClosesJul 18
The measurement window ended six days ago with zero executive orders signed in it — the thesis didn't just hold, it effectively resolved in our favor. The Federal Register (the resolution source) shows the 2026 series ending at EO 14414, signed Jun 25; the White House EO listing agrees, and the FR public-inspection queue holds nothing pending. The Jun 29 “Signs Executive Orders” video was mislabeled, as the original audit suspected — no numbered EO came from it.

Why exit rather than ride to settlement: latest expiration is Jul 18 — 8 days of locked capital for the final 1¢ — and the rules count any window-dated EO published right up to expiration, a small but total-loss tail. Selling NO at 99¢ locks in +12¢ (+13.8%) on the 87¢ entry. Liquidity is deep: 74k+ contracts bid at the 99¢ exit.
Evidence: Federal Register API, documents signed 2026-06-20 → 2026-07-10 = 3 EOs (14412, 14413 on Jun 22; 14414 on Jun 25) · FR public inspection: empty · original audit: 2026-07-01 politics mispricing audit