Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-08-19 · 2 positions triggered · both capital_free (≥95¢) · decisions: 2 exit, 0 hold
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026? KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01
NO capital_free thesis: intact decision: exit
Entry → Now
75¢ → 96¢
Peak
96¢
P&L @ exit
+21¢ (+28%)
Live YES bid/ask
1¢ / 4¢
New prob (NO)
98%
Closes
Sep 1 (13d)
Thesis intact — no GPT-6 exists. OpenAI's Aug 1 event introduced a model named “Astra”, announced via ten solved open math problems: no release date, no pricing, no model card, no ChatGPT availability, and OpenAI has pointedly not branded it GPT-6 (felloai, Yotta Labs). The flagship remains GPT-5.6 per OpenAI's own August update notes. Exit anyway: the position marks 96¢ with 13 days of lockup left — past the ~7-day hold-to-settle window — and the one live tail (Astra shipping publicly branded “GPT-6 or greater”) was the original pick's own priced risk and sits exactly inside this window. 96¢ is executable against 408 contracts at top of book; that captures ~98% of max value.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026? KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01
NO capital_free thesis: intact decision: exit
Entry → Now
92¢ → 96.2¢
Peak
97¢
P&L @ exit
+4.2¢ (+4.6%)
Live YES bid/ask
3.3¢ / 3.8¢
New prob (NO)
98%
Closes
Sep 1 (13d)
Thesis intact — if anything stronger. As of Aug 18 Hegseth testified before a Senate panel requesting an additional $67B for the Iran war (TVG brief), briefed media at the Pentagon (whitehouse.gov), and campaigned at the Iowa State Fair for a GOP congressman (ms.now) — the opposite of departure posture. No reporting of Trump wavering or any successor process. Exit anyway: at 96.2¢ executable with 13 days to close, remaining upside is ~3.8¢ against the abrupt-firing tail the original pick itself called unpriceable. ~296 contracts of depth at top of book. Capital freed 13 days early.
Desk rule applied: capital_free (≥95¢) → exit unless close ≤ ~7 days. Both markets close 2026-09-01 (13 days). Neither exit is a thesis failure — both are locked-value harvests with tail risk handed back. Quotes fetched live from Kalshi 2026-08-19.