# Kalshi Economics — Mispricing Audit (Ballast · openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh)

Date: 2026-07-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-15-kalshi-economics-mispricing-audit-ballast

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# Kalshi Economics — Mispricing Audit (Ballast · openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh)

2026-07-15 · category **Economics** · budget $1000

⚠️ Ensemble methodology — shadow-tracked. Probabilities are the
 geometric-mean-of-odds pool of 1 independent models
 (gpt-5.6-terra); conviction is measured from
 cross-model agreement, not assigned by hand. Sizing applies the v3 policy
 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic, 15% per-cluster cap). Research data — does not
 yet feed the public track record.

**7 picks** · $336 deployed of $1000 · 5 logged rejects

| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXAAAGASD-26JUL16-3.920` | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920? | NO @ 20c | HIGH | 72.0% vs 20c  edge 52.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 249 ($50) | · gpt-5.6-terra NO 72 |
|  | **Thesis:** The current official AAA average is $3.8900, materially below the one-day strict $3.920 cutoff.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff AAA's July 16 U.S. regular average is strictly above $3.920. AAA documents a $3.8900 current national average and a $3.8590 prior-day average; another very large daily increase is the clean tail risk. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXAAAGASD-26JUL16-3.925` | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.925? | NO @ 25c | HIGH | 55.0% vs 25c  edge 30.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 200 ($50) | · gpt-5.6-terra NO 55 |
|  | **Thesis:** AAA's $3.8900 current level makes the 76% YES quote look high one day before fixing, but the book is tiny.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff AAA's July 16 national regular average is strictly above $3.925. The official AAA page shows $3.8900 currently and $3.8590 yesterday; continued rapid increases are the principal tail risk. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXAAAGASD-26JUL16-3.930` | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.930? | NO @ 54c | HIGH | 70.0% vs 54c  edge 16.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 92 ($50) | · gpt-5.6-terra NO 70 |
|  | **Thesis:** AAA national regular was $3.8900 on July 15, leaving a one-day $0.040 jump to the strict threshold unlikely.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff AAA's U.S. regular average on July 16 is strictly above $3.930. AAA reported $3.8900 current versus $3.8590 yesterday, a sharp rise but still short of the required next-day level; the clean tail risk is continued wholesale-price pass-through producing another unusually large daily rise. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.5` | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026? | YES @ 31c | HIGH | 45.0% vs 31c  edge 14.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 322 ($100) | ✓ gpt-5.6-terra YES 45 |
|  | **Thesis:** Official June and July-base index levels make a rounded 3.6%-or-higher July y/y print materially more plausible than the 30¢ quote.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff BLS reports July 12-month CPI above 3.5%, requiring a one-decimal reported value of at least 3.6%. BLS's June 2026 CPI level is 333.952 and its July 2025 base is 323.048; a weak July monthly CPI increase is the principal risk to this base-effect thesis. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.6` | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026? | YES @ 12c | MEDIUM | 18.0% vs 12c  edge 6.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 284 ($34) | ✓ gpt-5.6-terra YES 18 |
|  | **Thesis:** The low July 2025 base and a July monthly rebound give the 3.7%-or-higher reported y/y outcome more probability than 11%.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff BLS reports July 12-month CPI above 3.6%, which under its one-decimal convention requires 3.7% or higher. BLS reports June 2026 CPI of 333.952 and July 2025 CPI of 323.048, documenting the favorable base-effect setup; a subdued July monthly print is the clean tail risk. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1` | Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026? | YES @ 46c | MEDIUM | 50.0% vs 46c  edge 4.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 80 ($37) | · gpt-5.6-terra YES 50 |
|  | **Thesis:** The threshold is a reported 0.2% or higher monthly CPI print, but current public data do not isolate July.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff BLS reports a single-decimal July CPI m/m increase above 0.1%. The official June index declined from May, while the AAA-documented July gasoline increase is a plausible offsetting tail risk rather than a sufficient CPI nowcast. |  |  |  |  |  |
| `KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T100000` | Will above 100000 jobs be added in July 2026? | YES @ 36c | LOW | 38.0% vs 36c  edge 2.0c · spread 0.0 ·               1/1 agree | 43 ($15) | · gpt-5.6-terra NO 62 |
|  | **Thesis:** The latest BLS level implies only a 57,000 June gain, but that is not a clean July leading indicator.               **Rationale:** Resolves YES iff the initial BLS July Employment Situation reports a total nonfarm increase above 100,000. BLS's June level is 158.984m versus 158.927m in May, showing a 57,000 latest monthly gain; the tail risk is ordinary monthly survey volatility and revisions. |  |  |  |  |  |

## Logged rejects (shadow-tracked for selection-skill)

| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
| `KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.7` | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.2` | Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in June 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2` | Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXCPI-26JUL-T0.3` | Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
| `KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T50000` | Will above 50000 jobs be added in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |

Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.