What changed since entry (Jul 6): everything moved toward resolution. The Knesset House Committee officially set the election for October 27 (also Haaretz, Jul 12, ynet), and Speaker Ohana, Coalition Whip Katz and Knesset Legal Adviser Afik all confirm dissolution on July 17 — three days from now. The Constitution Committee was still executing the timeline on Jul 13. No delay signals in the latest coverage; the entry thesis's fallback date (Jul 27) also lands before the Aug 1 deadline.
Why hold despite the ≥95¢ trigger: the capital-free rule exists to avoid weeks of locked capital for the last few cents, but this market closes early when the event occurs — expected resolution is ~Jul 17, ~3–4 days out, well inside the ~7-day carve-out. Selling into the 93¢ bid gives up ~3¢ of remaining edge (my 96% vs the 93% the bid implies) plus fees. The recess-without-final-readings tail the original analyst flagged is now remote: the date is fixed and final readings are being scheduled this week. Liquidity note: only ~57 contracts sit at 93¢, with ~970 more layered at 90–92¢ — thin top of book, but moot for a hold.