Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit Keel v4

Run date 2026-08-11 · Horizon 45 days (through 2026-09-25) · Capital $2,500 · Category focus: AI (advisory) · Universe: targets.json allowlist, 117 series

Picks

Rejects logged

Deployed

100%

Cash ($2,500)

117

Series swept

Verdict: stand down — cash is the position this week. Every one of the 42 in-horizon markets across the full v4 allowlist failed the Stage-0 mechanical cuts or the v4 entry bands. The slate is uniformly deep NO-favorites (YES asks ≤5¢) sitting in zero- or near-zero-volume books. There is no market where a probability was worth forming: the three books with real volume are efficiently priced tails, and the two structurally playable prices sit in dead books below the hard liquidity floor. Zero picks is the correct v4 output for this slate, not a failure to find edge — 98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books and that cohort had negative edge; this run declines to repeat it.

Why zero picks

The Stage-0 universe (allowlisted series with active markets closing by Sep 25) produced 42 markets: 22 Tier-1 institutional-process legs (almost all "X out / bill becomes law before Sep 1"), 13 Tier-2 legs (AI IPO dates, Tesla–SpaceX merger, US–Iran deal), and two central-bank decision slates (Bank of Canada Sep 2, Banxico Sep 24). Applying the hard cuts in order:

37 of 42 fail the liquidity floor (live vol24h < 500; 30 of them traded literally zero contracts in 24h).
All 40 non-pick markets fail the price-structure or band cuts anyway: YES ask ≤ 5¢ (tail / NO ≥ 95¢ deep favorite) on 35 of them; spread > 5¢ on 2; the rest priced ≥ 90¢ effective entry.
2 are existing picks (KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01, KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01) — barred by the hard rule.

The AI-category Tier-1 series the run was pointed at — KXANTHROPICDOD (close 2028) and KXNYTOAI (close 2028) — have no legs inside the 45-day horizon and were not candidates. KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3 and the Oct-1 IPO legs close Oct 1, six days past the horizon cutoff, and were excluded mechanically.

The three books with real volume — all efficient

Market	YES bid/ask	Vol 24h	OI	Why it's not a pick
KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 departure/ouster Alito retires before September?	0.1¢ / 0.4¢	106,999	243,617	Alito publicly confirmed on Aug 7 he is staying for another term (UPI, ABC News), after June's retracted NPR retirement-story error. The 107k volume is the book digesting that statement. YES is a <40¢-band tail; NO at ~99.6¢ is a deep-favorite band reject.
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP scheduled-process US–Iran deal before September?	1¢ / 2¢	7,705	884,209	NO at 98–99¢: max win ≤ 2% of capital at risk. The 94¢-lock memorial applies — deep-favorite band reject regardless of how safe the NO looks. Precedent store: Jun and Jul legs both resolved NO.
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 corporate-event Anthropic announces IPO before Sep 1?	0¢ / 1¢	2,460	146,562	Same structure: 1¢ tail / 99¢+ favorite. No playable side under v4 bands. Jun, Jul, and Aug legs all resolved NO (API-verified).

Near-misses worth recording

Ken Martin (DNC chair) — KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01, YES 14/19¢. The one market in the slate with a mid-band price. It opened Jul 28 near 69¢ YES at the peak of the autopsy-report/debt/phone-throwing scandal cycle and has decayed to 14¢ as congressional resignation calls failed to move DNC members — the body that actually controls his tenure (Axios, CNN, Jul 28). Buying NO at 86¢ would sit in the thin-favorite band, and the precedent (AUG01 leg resolved NO) supports it — but the book trades 1 contract per day against a hard floor of 500, with 5 contracts visible at the bid. The depth cap (⅓ of visible book) would allow a ~$1.50 position. Liquidity-floor reject; the 69→14¢ move also trips the 48-hour price-move check. Logged so the shadow record can score it.

Banxico HOLD — KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD, 93/94¢. Tightest spread in the slate (1¢) and a scheduled-process archetype, but zero 24h volume and a 94¢ entry is a deep-favorite band reject (≥90¢). The precedent store holds 10 KXCBDECISIONCANADA rows — central-bank holds resolve mechanically, but 94¢ six weeks before the meeting pays 6¢ to carry six weeks of surprise risk.

Full reject log (42)

Side/price shown where a side was structurally considered; Stage-0 mechanical rejects carry no model probability by design (no probability was formed on any market this run — no Stage-2 survivors).

Market	Archetype	YES bid/ask	Vol 24h	OI	Reject reason
KXALITOOUT-26SEP01	departure/ouster	0.1 / 0.4	106,999	243,617	deep-favorite band / tail; Aug 7 "staying" statement fully priced
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP	scheduled-process	1 / 2	7,705	884,209	deep-favorite band (NO 98–99¢)
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01	corporate-event	0 / 1	2,460	146,562	deep-favorite band / tail
KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01	departure/ouster	1 / 2	366	14,840	liquidity floor (366 < 500); tail
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0	scheduled-process	97 / 98	127	2,336	YES bid ≥ 95¢; liquidity floor
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01	departure/ouster	0 / 5	117	606	liquidity floor; YES ask ≤ 5¢
KXKASHOUT-26APR-26SEP01	departure/ouster	4 / 5	104	13,663	liquidity floor; YES ask ≤ 5¢
KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01	legal-action	0 / 1	94	63,391	liquidity floor; tail
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01	corporate-event	2 / 3	80	107,669	liquidity floor; tail
KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP	departure/ouster	2 / 8	23	3,065	spread 6¢ > 5¢; liquidity floor
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01	departure/ouster	14 / 19	1	1,455	liquidity floor (vol24h=1); 48h price-move flag (69→14¢)
KXBURNHAMOUT-26JUL-26SEP01	departure/ouster	0 / 1	0	7,993	zero-volume book; tail
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01	departure/ouster	0 / 7	0	3,888	zero-volume book; spread 7¢ > 5¢
KXFARMBILL-26MAY-SEP01	confirmation/enact	2 / 3	0	4,848	zero-volume book; tail
KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01	departure/ouster	1 / 3	0	7,025	zero-volume book; tail
KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1	confirmation/enact	0 / 1	0	3,831	zero-volume book; tail
KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-3	confirmation/enact	0 / 2	0	812	zero-volume book; tail
KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-4	confirmation/enact	0 / 1	0	7,880	zero-volume book; tail
KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01	confirmation/enact	0 / 1	0	34,460	zero-volume book; tail
KXLEAVELISACOOK-26SEP01	departure/ouster	2 / 3	0	5,091	zero-volume book; tail
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01	departure/ouster	6 / 10	0	992	zero-volume book; YES < 40¢ band / NO ≥ 90¢ band
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01	departure/ouster	2 / 3	0	10,071	zero-volume book; tail
KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01	departure/ouster	1 / 6	0	29,311	zero-volume book
KXRECNCH-27-SEP01	confirmation/enact	0 / 2	0	9,710	zero-volume book; tail
KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL	confirmation/enact	2 / 5	0	3,962	zero-volume book; YES ask ≤ 5¢
KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01	confirmation/enact	0 / 1	0	2,213	zero-volume book; tail
KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01	corporate-event	0 / 1	0	148,956	zero-volume book; tail
KXIPOSTARLINK-26SEP01	corporate-event	0 / 1	0	12,779	zero-volume book; tail
KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01	corporate-event	0 / 3	0	256	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25	scheduled-process	0 / 4	0	333	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C26	scheduled-process	0 / 3	0	303	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25	scheduled-process	0 / 4	0	1,582	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H26	scheduled-process	0 / 4	0	233	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD	scheduled-process	93 / 94	0	5,286	zero-volume book; deep-favorite band (≥90¢)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25	scheduled-process	3 / 4	0	3,685	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50	scheduled-process	0 / 2	0	4,644	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P	scheduled-process	0 / 2	0	4,645	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P	scheduled-process	0 / 1	0	3,596	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50	scheduled-process	0 / 1	0	3,395	zero-volume book; tail
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P	scheduled-process	0 / 1	0	3,395	zero-volume book; tail
KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01	multi-news-other	—	—	—	already an active pick
KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01	multi-news-other	—	—	—	already an active pick

Portfolio

Line	Cost	% of capital
Positions (0 picks, 0 clusters)	$0	0%
Cash	$2,500	100%

Position-size, EV-for-the-record, cluster, and conviction-exposure tables are trivially empty this run. The v4 sizing regime treats 40–70% cash as normal in an efficient week; 100% cash is the extreme of the same principle when the slate offers no in-band, in-liquidity entry at all. Risk profile: zero market risk carried; the only exposure is the opportunity cost of the ~3 weeks until the Sep-1 legs roll and new monthly legs open with fresh books.

Execution notes

No orders to place. Existing picks (per $EXISTING_PICKS) are untouched by this run.
The Sep-1 expiry wall (nearly the whole Tier-1 slate) rolls in ~3 weeks; the next run should catch the new Oct-1 legs — including KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3 (closes Oct 1, OI 41k) which missed this horizon by six days.
KXHOUSERUSSIASANCTION (vote-count slate, event 26AUG10, 6.7k vol24 at file-build time) carries a Jan-1-2027 close time and fell outside the horizon; if the House vote is actually scheduled, it will resolve early — worth watching for the next run rather than an exception in this one.
Precedent writeback: 2 verified entries (Ken Martin AUG01 leg, Alito JUL01 leg) in precedents.json.

Precedents consulted

No Stage-2 candidates survived Stage 0, so no per-candidate precedent retrieval drove a probability this run. Store coverage checked: KXCBDECISIONCANADA (10 rows), KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT (2 — Jun and Jul legs, both NO), KXIPOANTHROPIC (2 — both NO), KXKASHOUT (2), KXHEGSETHOUT (2), KXALITOOUT (1), KXLEAVEWALZ (1) — all consistent with the deep-NO pricing observed; none contradicted a reject.