# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-10-22

Date: 2026-10-22
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-22-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit Anchor · NO-side structural

Report date 2026-10-22 · generated 2026-10-22 16:40 UTC · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500 · focus category: Politics

0picks46logged rejects$0allocated100%cash ($2,500)120allowlisted series879open markets scanned

## Summary

No trade this run. Cash is the position. The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 72 Tier 1 and 48 Tier 2) holds 879 open markets, but only 46 of them expire inside the 45-day horizon, and every one of those fails at least one mechanical cut before any thesis is formed. Zero Stage-2 candidates means zero picks, which the Anchor methodology treats as a normal, correct result.

The allowlist is dominated by year-end contracts. The next liquid wave of Anchor-shaped markets (departures, charges, pardons, bills, Iran deal, Alito) all expire on or after Jan 1, 2027, which is ~71 days out. They enter the horizon on roughly **Nov 17, 2026**. Until then the in-horizon universe is the Nov 3 election-day cluster and two short-dated scheduled-process ladders, and all of those are structurally excluded.

## Stage 0 — Universe and funnel

Candidate universe = open markets in the allowlisted series with `expected_expiration_time` within 45 days (cutoff 2026-12-06). Mechanical cuts applied in spec order using live public-API numbers (`*_fp` / `*_dollars` fields).

| Funnel step | Markets |
|---|---|
| Open markets across allowlisted series | 879 |
| Expiring within 45 days | 46 |
| Survive all mechanical cuts (→ Stage 1/2 candidates) | **0** |

Primary reject reason among the 46 in-horizon markets:

| Primary reason | n |
|---|---|
| close after expiration | 27 |
| inside 7d | 13 |
| volume24h 0 < 500 | 3 |
| YES ask ≤ 5¢ | 1 |
| volume24h 150 < 500 | 1 |
| already an active pick | 1 |

- **Close after expiration (27).** The Nov 3 election-day cluster (California billionaire wealth tax, California Voter ID, Virginia/Nevada/Missouri reproductive-rights measures, Montana measures, Alberta referendum questions) and all eleven `KXIMPEACH-27/28` rungs carry an `expected_expiration_time` of 2026-11-03 but a `close_time` months to a year later. Verified live: `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` closes 2027-11-03T04:59Z with latest expiration 2027-11-03, i.e. a twelve-month resolution window; `KXIMPEACH-27-AUG01` closes 2027-08-01 against the same Nov 3 expected expiration. The spec's hard rule rejects these regardless of thesis quality.
- **Inside 7d (13).** The Suez weekly transit ladder (expires Oct 27) and the Bank of Canada Oct 28 decision ladder. The Suez ladder is also a continuous-number market, and the precedent store notes it settles on the IMF PortWatch feed when that feed updates, not at expiration.
- **Price / volume cuts.** McConnell early resignation (YES ask 1.2¢), Pelosi early resignation, Neal Dunn, Max Miller, October judge-confirmation count: all at or below 5¢ on YES, several with trivial 24h volume. The NO side on these would also be a deep-favorite-band reject (≥90¢).
- **Already an active pick (1).** `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` (NO) is live and is excluded; it would in any case fail the volume and YES-ask cuts today.

## Stage 1 — Precedents consulted

Queried `resolution_precedents` for every series with an in-horizon market. The store has rows for `KXCBDECISIONCANADA` (6: every >25bp rung resolved NO; the hold rung is resolver-safe but carries only 1–3¢ of YES premium) and `KXSUEZWEEKLY` (2: only the PortWatch total counts; settlement lands when the feed updates). It has **nothing** for `KXIMPEACH`, `KXCAWEALTHTAX`, `KXCAVOTERID`, `KXRETIREMM`, `KXALBERTAREFS` or `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE`, so any future thesis on those series would be derived cold. Archetype-level rows (`KXBILLS`, `KXAGCONF`, `KXRECNCH`) were read for context but no candidate reached Stage 2, so none is cited on a pick.

## Stage 2–3.5 — Diligence, thesis shape, rejects

Not run: no market survived Stage 0. No pre-market probability was committed on any market this run, so no reject below carries a side or a `model_prob_pct`. These should not be scored on the passed-on scoreboard.

For the operator's eye only, not a thesis: `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` (YES 24/25¢, 24h volume ~10.7k, OI ~717k) is the single in-horizon market that would otherwise have an Anchor shape (status-quo NO on a ballot initiative, effective NO entry ~76¢, inside the core 60–84¢ band, election Nov 3). It is excluded solely by the close-after-expiration rule, because Kalshi has given it a one-year close and early resolution only on a media-consensus call. If the rule is ever relaxed for election-day measures, this is the first market to diligence.

## Logged rejects (46)

| Market | Archetype | Days to exp | YES bid/ask ¢ | Vol 24h | OI | Cuts failed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T260` Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 97.0/98.0 | 0 | 1,101 | volume24h 0 < 500; YES bid ≥ 95¢; inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T270` Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 96.0/97.0 | 673 | 2,812 | YES bid ≥ 95¢; inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T280` Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 89.0/90.0 | 2,199 | 4,335 | inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T290` Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 64.0/65.0 | 1,103 | 5,436 | inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T300` Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 39.0/40.0 | 253 | 2,902 | volume24h 253 < 500; inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T310` Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 15.0/16.0 | 3,186 | 3,604 | inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T320` Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 4.0/5.0 | 349 | 2,060 | volume24h 349 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢; inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT25-T330` Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 19, 20 | legal-action | 4.9 | 2.0/3.0 | 0 | 1,806 | volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢; inside 7d; continuous-number market |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25` Will Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 5.9 | 0.0/1.0 | 1,994 | 16,123 | YES ask ≤ 5¢; inside 7d |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26` Will Bank of Canada cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 5.9 | 0.0/1.0 | 1,804 | 6,381 | YES ask ≤ 5¢; inside 7d |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 5.9 | 16.0/17.0 | 55,563 | 85,356 | inside 7d |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 5.9 | 82.0/83.0 | 29,973 | 76,401 | inside 7d |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26` Will Bank of Canada hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 5.9 | 0.0/1.0 | 1,804 | 4,571 | YES ask ≤ 5¢; inside 7d |
| `KXJUDGECOUNT-26OCT-0` Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026? | confirmation/enact | 9.9 | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 36,480 | volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXCAVOTERID-26` Will the 2026 California Voter ID initiative pass? | confirmation/enact | 11.9 | 14.0/16.0 | 520 | 14,595 | close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? | confirmation/enact | 11.9 | 24.0/25.0 | 10,740 | 716,875 | close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-APR01` Will the President be impeached before Apr 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 34.0/35.0 | 14 | 846 | volume24h 14 < 500; close after expiration (close 2027-04-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-AUG01` Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 52.0/54.0 | 1,245 | 3,344 | close after expiration (close 2027-08-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-FEB01` Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 15.0/16.0 | 1,052 | 14,192 | close after expiration (close 2027-02-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 3.5/3.7 | 4,198 | 554,118 | YES ask ≤ 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-01-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUL01` Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 48.0/49.0 | 2,233 | 10,931 | close after expiration (close 2027-07-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUN01` Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 42.0/43.0 | 382 | 1,094 | volume24h 382 < 500; close after expiration (close 2027-06-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 26.0/27.0 | 2,653 | 174,452 | close after expiration (close 2027-03-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAY01` Will the President be impeached before May 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 39.0/40.0 | 0 | 1,920 | volume24h 0 < 500; close after expiration (close 2027-05-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-OCT01` Will the President be impeached before Oct 1, 2027? | legal-action | 11.9 | 64.0/65.0 | 84 | 8,362 | volume24h 84 < 500; close after expiration (close 2027-10-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | legal-action | 11.9 | 65.0/66.0 | 1,913 | 392,180 | close after expiration (close 2028-01-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXLEAVEDUNN` Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | departure/ouster | 11.9 | 0.5/4.3 | 0 | 6,623 | volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-MO` Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass? | confirmation/enact | 11.9 | 49.0/54.0 | 32 | 4,437 | volume24h 32 < 500; close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-NV` Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass? | confirmation/enact | 11.9 | 90.0/98.7 | 0 | 18 | volume24h 0 < 500; spread 9¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-VA` Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass? | confirmation/enact | 11.9 | 90.0/94.3 | 10 | 3,896 | volume24h 10 < 500; close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03) |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | 11.9 | 1.0/1.2 | 22,177 | 1,412,159 | YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXRETIREPELOSI-26` Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? | departure/ouster | 11.9 | 1.2/1.8 | 150 | 102,112 | volume24h 150 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imp | multi-news-other | 18.9 | 3.0/5.0 | 163 | 76,665 | already an active pick; volume24h 163 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | 18.9 | 1.0/2.0 | 0 | 46,336 | volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q01` Will Question 1 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 96.0/100.0 | 200 | 220 | volume24h 200 < 500; YES bid ≥ 95¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q02` Will Question 2 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 86.0/100.0 | 201 | 226 | volume24h 201 < 500; spread 14¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q03` Will Question 3 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 60.0/100.0 | 0 | 2 | volume24h 0 < 500; spread 40¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q04` Will Question 4 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 99.0/100.0 | 200 | 202 | volume24h 200 < 500; YES bid ≥ 95¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q05` Will Question 5 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 85.0/100.0 | 0 | 1,274 | volume24h 0 < 500; spread 15¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q06` Will Question 6 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 0.0/6.0 | 359 | 353 | volume24h 359 < 500; spread 6¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q07` Will Question 7 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 0.0/91.0 | 859 | 997 | spread 91¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q08` Will Question 8 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 0.0/49.0 | 1,259 | 3,916 | spread 49¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q09` Will Question 9 pass? | confirmation/enact | 27.9 | 1.0/58.0 | 353 | 1,620 | volume24h 353 < 500; spread 57¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19) |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-CI132` Will CI-132 pass? | confirmation/enact | 32.9 | 70.0/80.0 | 0 | 42 | volume24h 0 < 500; spread 10¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-24) |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-CI133` Will CI-133 pass? | confirmation/enact | 32.9 | 69.0/79.0 | 0 | 12 | volume24h 0 < 500; spread 10¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-24) |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-I194` Will I-194 pass? | confirmation/enact | 32.9 | 45.0/54.0 | 15 | 31 | volume24h 15 < 500; spread 9¢ > 5¢; close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-24) |

## Stage 4 — Sizing, clusters, risk profile

| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Capital | $2,500 |
| Deployed | $0 (0 contracts) |
| Reserve | $2,500 (100%, ≥10% required) |
| Clusters with a leg | none |
| Max loss | $0 |
| EV for the record | n/a |

**Execution notes.** Nothing to execute. The existing live pick (`KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` NO) is unaffected by this run.

## Forward look — what enters the horizon next

Allowlisted markets with 24h volume ≥ 500 expiring between 45 and 80 days out. These become Stage-0 candidates once `expected_expiration_time` is within 45 days (the Jan 1 cohort crosses on ~Nov 17; the Jan 4–8 cohort on ~Nov 20–24). Several already sit in the NO-side core band and warrant precedent retrieval and news diligence on the next run.

| Market | Archetype | Expires | Days | YES bid/ask ¢ | Vol 24h | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXOMARCITIZENSHIP-27-IOMA` Will Ilhan Omar's U.S. citizenship be revoked before Jan 1, 2027? | multi-news-other | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 7.0/8.0 | 56,959 | 159,651 |
| `KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04` Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? | confirmation/enact | 2027-01-04 | 74 | 2.6/3.5 | 24,119 | 4,689,962 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 7.0/8.0 | 14,977 | 175,982 |
| `KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-IOMA` Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 41.0/43.0 | 12,208 | 142,976 |
| `KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH` Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran? | multi-news-other | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 4.0/5.0 | 9,491 | 552,124 |
| `KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01` Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027? | corporate-event | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 6.0/7.0 | 5,944 | 1,193,316 |
| `KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIL` Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-07 | 77 | 38.0/40.0 | 4,971 | 112,738 |
| `KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG` Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-07 | 77 | 24.0/25.0 | 4,865 | 497,839 |
| `KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-MZUC` Will Mark Zuckerberg announce they're leaving California? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 5.5/13.0 | 4,089 | 3,657 |
| `KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC` Who will IPO before 2027? | corporate-event | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 84.0/86.0 | 3,460 | 90,895 |
| `KXIPO-26-OPENAI` Who will IPO before 2027? | corporate-event | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 1.0/3.0 | 2,567 | 90,633 |
| `KXARREST-27JAN-IOMA` Will Ilhan Omar be arrested before Jan 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 33.0/35.0 | 1,966 | 10,741 |
| `KXBTCVSGOLD-26` Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? | multi-news-other | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 37.0/41.6 | 1,897 | 76,622 |
| `KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT` Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-07 | 77 | 16.0/17.0 | 1,607 | 402,428 |
| `KX250DOLLARBILL-27-JAN01` Will bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring | confirmation/enact | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 2.6/3.3 | 1,563 | 371,407 |
| `KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01` Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1 | departure/ouster | 2027-01-08 | 78 | 16.0/18.0 | 1,492 | 46,585 |
| `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-28JAN31` Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve | departure/ouster | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 69.0/72.0 | 1,448 | 6,913 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 0.0/1.0 | 1,436 | 981,092 |
| `KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT` Donald Trump out before 2027? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 3.7/4.0 | 1,381 | 2,443,408 |
| `KXACQANNOUNCEANNUAL-27JAN01-ANYVIKI` Will any company announce acquisition of Viking Therapeutics before Jan 1, 2027? | corporate-event | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 10.0/14.0 | 1,323 | 2,480 |
| `KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01-TWAL-27JAN01` Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027 | departure/ouster | 2027-01-08 | 78 | 6.0/6.3 | 1,247 | 256,301 |
| `KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-HLUT` Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-07 | 77 | 16.0/18.0 | 1,042 | 99,914 |
| `KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01` Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027? | multi-news-other | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 5.1/5.7 | 1,026 | 741,284 |
| `KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BOBA` Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 4.5/4.6 | 982 | 61,116 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27FEB` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 12.0/15.0 | 842 | 16,661 |
| `KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JPOW` Will Jerome Powell be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 2.4/3.0 | 757 | 13,625 |
| `KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SCOM` Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 8.3/9.0 | 729 | 24,038 |
| `KXARREST-27JAN-BOM` Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 2.0/3.0 | 699 | 81,675 |
| `KXTRUMPDIVIDEND-27-YES` Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people | multi-news-other | 2027-01-08 | 78 | 10.0/11.0 | 690 | 33,778 |
| `KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-27JUL01` Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1 | departure/ouster | 2027-01-08 | 78 | 44.0/46.0 | 688 | 9,854 |
| `KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-JFET` Will JFET leave the John Fetterman? | multi-news-other | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 9.0/12.0 | 678 | 25,335 |
| `KXALITOOUT-27JAN01` Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before 2027? | departure/ouster | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 9.9/11.0 | 665 | 153,986 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 7.5/9.9 | 637 | 479,906 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 28.0/31.0 | 606 | 43,663 |
| `KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX` Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 4.2/6.9 | 591 | 28,789 |
| `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27` Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve | departure/ouster | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 5.6/7.5 | 569 | 42,487 |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-TANZ` Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027? | multi-news-other | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 14.0/19.0 | 568 | 3,901 |
| `KXARREST-27JAN-BCLIN` Will Bill Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027? | legal-action | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 2.5/4.4 | 549 | 18,710 |
| `KXBILLS-DATA` Will legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumer | confirmation/enact | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 15.0/19.0 | 534 | 6,703 |
| `KXACQANNOUNCEANNUAL-27JAN01-ANYPAYP` Will any company announce acquisition of PayPal before Jan 1, 2027? | corporate-event | 2027-01-01 | 71 | 10.0/13.0 | 503 | 9,593 |

## Method

Anchor keeps the Keel v4 plumbing (Stage-0 allowlist from `targets.json`, probability before price, precedent retrieval, resolver-risk pricing, book-derived no-trade band, one leg per cluster, live-book liquidity floor, logged rejects, cash-is-a-position) and restricts the side and the thesis shape: NO is the default; YES only on _already-happened_ or _process-in-motion_; rejects for continuous-number theses, continuation tails and rules-reading edges; entry band 60–84¢ core, 85–89¢ at half size, ≥90¢ and <60¢ rejected; flat 10%-of-capital sizing with a one-third-of-visible-depth cap and a 7-day minimum to expiration.