# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Date: 2026-10-16
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-16-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-16 · strategy Anchor · audit_version anchor · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500 · focus category Politics · universe = Stage-0 allowlist (targets.json, 120 series, generated 2026-10-16T16:36Z)

## 1. Summary

Picks0Capital deployed$0Cash100%Logged rejects47Stage-2 candidates4

**Zero picks is the result, and it is the correct one.** The allowlist contains 120 series (70 Tier-1, 50 Tier-2) with 891 open markets, but only 51 of those close inside the 45-day horizon and only four survive the mechanical cuts (volume floor, 5¢ spread, 95/5 price caps, inside-7d, close-after-expiration). The four fall into two clusters, and in both the book already sits on my probability:

- **Zacharia press-secretary exit (Nov 1 rung).** Status-quo NO is the right thesis shape and the lose-tail is a discrete event, but the blended probability (14%) lands on the 17/19 quote with real NO depth at 84¢. A ~2¢ edge in a 70,000-contract/day specialist book is inside the no-trade band. The Oct 24 rung is a deep favorite (NO 93¢).
- **Bank of Canada Oct 28.** Kalshi prices a hike at 17–18% while overnight-index swaps imply 36% (Oct 16). My blended 25% hike probability makes NO on the hike leg negative-edge at 83¢, and YES on the hold leg is both a disallowed YES shape and edge-less at 81¢.

Cash is a position: $2,500 (100%) held. The one live Anchor pick in this category, `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` NO, is untouched and logged as "already an active pick".

## 2. Picks

**None.** No market cleared Stage 3. Position-size, EV-for-the-record and cluster tables below are therefore empty by construction; the Stage-2 cards in section 7 carry the YES-condition sentence, mechanism, probabilities and precedents for each candidate that was fully worked.

## 3. Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max win | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions. Flat-sizing rule would have been 10% of capital ($250) per pick, 5% in the 85–89¢ band, capped at 1/3 of visible depth at or below the limit. |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## 4. EV for the record

| Ticker | Price | Model P(side) | Edge ¢ | EV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` NO (not taken) | 84 | 86% | +2 | +2.4 |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` NO (not taken) | 83 | 75% | −8 | −9.6 |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` YES (not taken) | 81 | 75% | −6 | −7.4 |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT24` NO (not taken) | 93 | 94% | +1 | +1.1 |

EV % = (P·100 − price)/price on the named side. None clears the book-derived band (spread + 3¢ slippage allowance, doubled where volume24h > 5,000).

## 5. Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs reviewed | Deployed leg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| `zacharia-presssec-exit` | Oct 20 (inside 7d), Oct 24, Nov 1 | none | Nov 1 best leg; inside spread. Oct 24 deep-favorite. |
| `boc-oct-2026` | H0, H25, C25 (vol floor) | none | Kalshi already more hawkish-hold than OIS; no NO edge. |

## 6. Risk profile and execution notes

- **Exposure:** none new. Portfolio risk is the existing diesel-export-ban NO only.
- **Reserve:** 100% cash (rule: ≥10%).
- **What would change the call on Zacharia:** a YES quote at or above ~24¢ (NO ≤ 76¢) with no new primary-source fact would put the status-quo NO back inside the core band with a ≥10-pt edge; conversely any on-record Trump statement about a replacement ends the thesis.
- **What would change the call on BoC:** Sep CPI and the Business Outlook Survey land Oct 19–21; if swaps move toward hold (<25% hike) while Kalshi's hike leg stays ≥20¢, NO on H25 could clear the band. Decision is 09:45 ET Oct 28 with an MPR (official calendar).
- **Data hygiene:** Kalshi's `expected_expiration_time` is unreliable on this slate (2029 placeholders on the "out by" ladders; Nov 3 on markets that close in 2027). Horizon was computed on `close_time`; the 7-day rule on the earlier of the two; the close-after-expiration rule was applied literally and logged.

## 7. Stage-2 candidate cards

NO (not taken)status-quoreject: inside spread

### KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 — Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026?

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, Zacharia must actually vacate the Press Secretary role (an actual departure date, per _rules_secondary_) before Nov 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi on the vacancy, not on an announcement. New action by a person → Anchor-shaped.

**Rules:** primary "If Katie Zacharia leaves as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Secondary clarification: "must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period." Early close on departure.

**Diligence (primary/dated):** Named Oct 9, 2026 (CNBC Oct 9/11; whitehouse.gov release on her Oct 13 inaugural briefing). Debut briefing Oct 13 ran ~14 minutes, three questions (CBC, PBS). CNN Oct 13: "several White House officials question how long" she can last. Trump said she "did an excellent job" (reported via The Free Press, Oct 14). Oct 15: she confirmed on Fox's _Hannity_ that she never passed the California bar (Washington Post, ABC7). Campaign for Accountability filed a State Bar complaint alleging unauthorized practice of law as Fix California general counsel (Jan 2024–Mar 2025); Democracy Defenders Fund called for a State Bar/AG probe. Oct 16: she told Fox the "legacy media" is manufacturing the story. **Vehicle:** none — no resignation, no named successor, no on-record Trump statement about replacing her. **Calendar:** staff post, no process clock; Trump can act any day. **Already happened?** No.

**Precedents consulted:** KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO): "Anonymous 'it's only a matter of time' White House sourcing is not a resolution event … nothing short of an actual vacancy pays." KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO): "require an affirmative White House signal before paying anything above the base rate." KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUN01 (NO): hearings are "a volatility event, not a resolution event." KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB (YES): series settles on the actual last day in office. Counter-precedent from the Anchor record: KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 resolved YES when the White House asked for a resignation — these ladders do pay when the principal acts.

**Probability:** 14% pre-market → 14% final. Reasoning: historical press-secretary tenure makes a sub-month exit rare (terHorst 1974 is the only one, on a principled resignation), but a 10-day-old appointee with a live misdemeanor-exposure complaint, a hostile Fox interview and anonymous internal doubts carries a materially elevated hazard; ~1%/day over 15 days. The book (17/19, real NO depth 84¢, 70,933 contracts/24h, OI 125,168) is liquid and sits on that number.

**Resolver profile:** Kalshi single-official; pays on vacancy. Risks: "acting" reshuffle where she is sidelined but keeps the title (favors NO); announced resignation with a post-Oct 31 effective date (favors NO per secondary rule). Total deduction ~3 pts, already inside the 14%.

**Cleanest lose tail:** Trump fires her or accepts a resignation in the next 15 days — a new discrete event, not a continuation. Acceptable shape, but it is exactly what the price carries.

**Entry context:** YES 17/19 (best YES bid 3.6 contracts at 17¢, 525 at 16¢); NO ask 83–84¢; depth at or below 84¢ NO ≈ 528 contracts; vol24h 70,933; OI 125,168. 48h move: 10¢ (Oct 14) → 13¢ (Oct 15) → 12–20¢ range today. **Verdict:** inside spread, no deployment.

NO (not taken)status-quoreject: deep-favorite band

### KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT24 — out before Oct 24, 2026?

Same YES condition and rules, 7.5-day window. Prob 6% pre-market → 6% final. NO costs 93¢ (YES 7/8, best YES bid 6,944 contracts). Max win 7% of capital at risk with no edge over the market; also at the edge of the inside-7d rule. Rejected.

NO (not taken)status-quoreject: inside spread (negative edge)

### KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 — Will the Bank of Canada hike 25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, Governing Council must raise the overnight-rate target by exactly 25bp at the 09:45 ET Oct 28, 2026 fixed announcement date, resolved by Kalshi on the Bank's press release. Institutional action at a dated step → Anchor-shaped.

**Diligence:** Official calendar (bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events): Oct 28, 2026 09:45 ET, with Monetary Policy Report. Sep 2, 2026 release: target held at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit 2.20%); "CPI inflation has been hovering around 3% … mainly because of persistently higher gasoline prices"; guidance "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." BNN Bloomberg Sep 18: October priced as a coin flip on oil; RBC (Fan), Desjardins (Bartlett), Capital Economics (Brown) base case no hike in 2026. Globe and Mail preview: RBC's Janzen calls Oct 28 "live" but not his base case; Sep CPI and the BOS land the week of Oct 19. Bluegamma OIS, as of Oct 16: hold 64% / hike 36% / cut 0%. TD: unchanged through next year.

**Precedents consulted:** 13 rows for this series (Jun/Jul/Sep 2026 ladders, all resolved as the consensus hold). KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H25 lesson: "Two-sided guidance keeps both middle rungs alive in the narrative while neither gets priced … resist trading the guidance text." 26JUL-H26: outer rungs only test off-cycle shocks. Resolver has paid cleanly on the press release every time.

**Probability:** P(hike) 27% pre-market → 25% final (economists' base case vs swaps at 36%; Kalshi 17/18 is the most dovish of the three). NO fair ≈ 75¢ vs NO ask 83¢ → −8¢. **Resolver risk:** negligible (0–1 pt). **Cleanest lose tail:** a hike — discrete, acceptable shape. **Entry context:** YES 17/18, NO 82/83, 52 contracts at the NO ask, vol24h 653, OI 33,841. **Verdict:** negative edge; the book already prices the hold harder than the swaps market. Rejected.

YES (not taken)reject: yes-side thesis / inside spread

### KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 — Will the Bank of Canada maintain the rate at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

Mirror of the hike leg. A "hold" is the _content_ of the decision, not a process step reaching a defined stage, so it fails the process-in-motion test for an allowed YES; it is not "already happened" either. Prob 72% pre-market → 75% final vs YES ask 81¢ → −6¢. Entry: 80/81, 34 contracts at the ask, vol24h 1,013, OI 51,277. Rejected (same cluster as H25 in any case).

## 8. Universe and Stage-0 notes

- Allowlist read from `/tmp/out/targets.json`: 120 series, min OI 5,000. Live data from the Kalshi public API (`*_dollars`/`*_fp` fields); candlesticks from the series/markets candlesticks endpoint; orderbook depth 12.
- 891 open markets fetched; 51 close within 45 days; 4 pass all mechanical cuts. Most Tier-1 departure/legal ladders close Jan 1, 2027 (77+ days) and are outside horizon; the within-horizon rungs are mostly ≤5¢ YES (deep favorites) or below the 500-contract volume floor.
- Mentions-style markets: none in the allowlist. Continuous-number series caught at Stage 0: `KXSUEZWEEKLY` (weekly transit counts), `KXJUDGECOUNT`.
- Precedent store: 165 rows read; none for `KXZACHARIAOUT` (derived from the departure/ouster archetype rows); 13 for `KXCBDECISIONCANADA`. No new precedent rows written this run (September BoC ladder already present; no other settled target-series market was researched).

## 9. Rejects log (47)

| Market | Archetype | Side | Price ¢ | P(YES) % | Cluster | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` Katie Zacharia out as WH Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 83 | 14 | zacharia-presssec-exit | inside spread: pre-market 14% -> final 14% sits on the 17/19 market (real NO depth is at 84c, best NO ask has 3.6 contracts); a ~2c edge in a 70k-vol specialist book does not clear the no-trade band. Mechanism (status quo; Trump on record Oct 13 'excellent job') is the right shape and the lose-tail is a discrete firing/resignation, but the price already carries that hazard. |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT24` Katie Zacharia out as WH Press Secretary before Oct 24, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 93 | 6 | zacharia-presssec-exit | deep-favorite band: NO costs 93c (YES 7/8); max win 7% of capital at risk, and the rung expires in 7.5 days, on the edge of the inside-7d rule. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` Bank of Canada hikes 25bps at Oct 28, 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 83 | 25 | boc-oct-2026 | inside spread (negative edge): pre-market P(hike) 27% -> final 25% vs OIS-implied 36% (bluegamma, Oct 16) and Kalshi 17/18; NO at 83c is priced above my 75c fair. Status-quo hold is the consensus base case (RBC, TD, Desjardins, Capital Economics) but the book already prices it harder than the swaps market. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` Bank of Canada maintains rate at Oct 28, 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | YES | 81 | 75 | boc-oct-2026 | yes-side thesis / inside spread: a 'hold' is a forecast of the decision's content, not a dated process step the resolver pays on, so it does not qualify under process-in-motion; and YES at 81c has no edge against a 75% blended hold probability (OIS 64%). |
| `KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01` When will OpenAI IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100 | – | ai-lab-ipo-timing | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 0<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100 | – | anthropic-ipo-timing | YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100 | – | anthropic-ipo-timing | inside 7d (expires in 0.5 days) |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100 | – | anthropic-ipo-timing | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 0<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25` Will Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100 | – | boc-oct-2026 | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 368<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 76 | – | ca-wealth-tax-2026 | close after expiration: close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diese | multi-news-other | NO | 97 | – | diesel-export-ban | already an active pick (KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO is live) |
| `KXLEAVEDUNN` Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | departure/ouster | NO | 99 | – | dunn-exit | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 0<500 |
| `KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03` Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 99 | – | fetterman-switch | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 37<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-NOV03` Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Nov 3, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 99 | – | gallego-exit | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 300<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 97 | – | hegseth-exit | YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXJUDGECOUNT-26OCT-0` Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026? | confirmation/enact | NO | 100 | – | judicial-confirmations-oct | continuous-number market (confirmation count); vol24 0; YES ask 1c |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q07` Will Question 7 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 66 | – | kxalbertarefs | close after expiration: close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q09` Will Question 9 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 64 | – | kxalbertarefs | close after expiration: close 2027-10-19 vs expected expiration 2026-11-19; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXCAVOTERID-26` Will the 2026 California Voter ID initiative pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 76 | – | kxcavoterid | close after expiration: close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 99 | – | mcconnell-early-exit | YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 99 | – | miller-exit | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 113<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01` Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 99 | – | netanyahu-legal | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 0<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXNETANYAHUPARDON-26-NOV01` Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 99 | – | netanyahu-legal | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 12<500 |
| `KXOAIPERSONALAGENT-27JAN01-26NOV01` Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 92 | – | openai-agent-launch | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 33<500 |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01` Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 99 | – | patel-exit | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 0<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXRETIREPELOSI-26` Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 99 | – | pelosi-early-exit | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 125<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03` Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) pub | departure/ouster | NO | 89 | – | schumer-leadership | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 5<500; bid-ask spread 6c > 5c |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T280` Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 11 | – | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market (weekly transit count); inside 7d (expires Oct 20) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T290` Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 13 | – | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market (weekly transit count); inside 7d (expires Oct 20) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T300` Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 34 | – | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market (weekly transit count); inside 7d (expires Oct 20) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T310` Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 61 | – | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market (weekly transit count); inside 7d (expires Oct 20) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T320` Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 82 | – | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market (weekly transit count); inside 7d (expires Oct 20) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T330` Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 91 | – | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market (weekly transit count); inside 7d (expires Oct 20) |
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01` Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire T | corporate-event | NO | 98 | – | tesla-spacex-merger | YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-APR01` Will the President be impeached before Apr 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 63 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-04-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-AUG01` Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 56 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-08-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-FEB01` Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 81 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-02-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 96 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-01-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUL01` Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 61 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-07-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUN01` Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 67 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-06-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 75 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-03-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAY01` Will the President be impeached before May 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 67 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-05-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-OCT01` Will the President be impeached before Oct 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 48 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2027-10-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | legal-action | NO | 35 | – | trump-impeach-ladder | close after expiration: close 2028-01-01 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03; also outside 45d horizon on close_time |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01` Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 95 | – | trump-warsh | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 233<500 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | NO | 99 | – | us-iran-deal | Stage-0 volume floor: live vol24 124<500; YES ask <= 5c (NO side would be deep-favorite band) |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT20` Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Oct 20, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 95 | – | zacharia-presssec-exit | inside 7d (expires in 3.5 days) |

Side/price are for the side Anchor would have taken (NO default; NO price = 100 − YES bid). Probability shown only where Stage 2 was reached.

Generated 2026-10-16 by the Anchor audit · Sources cited inline: Bank of Canada (press release Sep 2, 2026; upcoming-events calendar), BNN Bloomberg (Sep 18, 2026), The Globe and Mail (Oct 2026 preview), Bluegamma OIS page (Oct 16, 2026), TD Economics, CNBC (Oct 9/11), CNN (Oct 13/16), The Washington Post (Oct 15), ABC7/ABC Australia (Oct 16), The Free Press, Campaign for Accountability, Democracy Defenders Fund, Kalshi public API.