Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Zero picks is the result, and it is the correct one. The allowlist contains 120 series (70 Tier-1, 50 Tier-2) with 891 open markets, but only 51 of those close inside the 45-day horizon and only four survive the mechanical cuts (volume floor, 5¢ spread, 95/5 price caps, inside-7d, close-after-expiration). The four fall into two clusters, and in both the book already sits on my probability:

• Zacharia press-secretary exit (Nov 1 rung). Status-quo NO is the right thesis shape and the lose-tail is a discrete event, but the blended probability (14%) lands on the 17/19 quote with real NO depth at 84¢. A ~2¢ edge in a 70,000-contract/day specialist book is inside the no-trade band. The Oct 24 rung is a deep favorite (NO 93¢).
• Bank of Canada Oct 28. Kalshi prices a hike at 17–18% while overnight-index swaps imply 36% (Oct 16). My blended 25% hike probability makes NO on the hike leg negative-edge at 83¢, and YES on the hold leg is both a disallowed YES shape and edge-less at 81¢.

Cash is a position: $2,500 (100%) held. The one live Anchor pick in this category, KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO, is untouched and logged as "already an active pick".

None. No market cleared Stage 3. Position-size, EV-for-the-record and cluster tables below are therefore empty by construction; the Stage-2 cards in section 7 carry the YES-condition sentence, mechanism, probabilities and precedents for each candidate that was fully worked.

• Exposure: none new. Portfolio risk is the existing diesel-export-ban NO only.
• Reserve: 100% cash (rule: ≥10%).
• What would change the call on Zacharia: a YES quote at or above ~24¢ (NO ≤ 76¢) with no new primary-source fact would put the status-quo NO back inside the core band with a ≥10-pt edge; conversely any on-record Trump statement about a replacement ends the thesis.
• What would change the call on BoC: Sep CPI and the Business Outlook Survey land Oct 19–21; if swaps move toward hold (<25% hike) while Kalshi's hike leg stays ≥20¢, NO on H25 could clear the band. Decision is 09:45 ET Oct 28 with an MPR (official calendar).
• Data hygiene: Kalshi's expected_expiration_time is unreliable on this slate (2029 placeholders on the "out by" ladders; Nov 3 on markets that close in 2027). Horizon was computed on close_time; the 7-day rule on the earlier of the two; the close-after-expiration rule was applied literally and logged.

KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 — Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026?

YES condition: For YES to pay, Zacharia must actually vacate the Press Secretary role (an actual departure date, per rules_secondary) before Nov 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi on the vacancy, not on an announcement. New action by a person → Anchor-shaped.

Rules: primary "If Katie Zacharia leaves as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Secondary clarification: "must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period." Early close on departure.

Diligence (primary/dated): Named Oct 9, 2026 (CNBC Oct 9/11; whitehouse.gov release on her Oct 13 inaugural briefing). Debut briefing Oct 13 ran ~14 minutes, three questions (CBC, PBS). CNN Oct 13: "several White House officials question how long" she can last. Trump said she "did an excellent job" (reported via The Free Press, Oct 14). Oct 15: she confirmed on Fox's Hannity that she never passed the California bar (Washington Post, ABC7). Campaign for Accountability filed a State Bar complaint alleging unauthorized practice of law as Fix California general counsel (Jan 2024–Mar 2025); Democracy Defenders Fund called for a State Bar/AG probe. Oct 16: she told Fox the "legacy media" is manufacturing the story. Vehicle: none — no resignation, no named successor, no on-record Trump statement about replacing her. Calendar: staff post, no process clock; Trump can act any day. Already happened? No.

Precedents consulted: KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO): "Anonymous 'it's only a matter of time' White House sourcing is not a resolution event … nothing short of an actual vacancy pays." KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO): "require an affirmative White House signal before paying anything above the base rate." KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUN01 (NO): hearings are "a volatility event, not a resolution event." KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB (YES): series settles on the actual last day in office. Counter-precedent from the Anchor record: KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 resolved YES when the White House asked for a resignation — these ladders do pay when the principal acts.

Probability: 14% pre-market → 14% final. Reasoning: historical press-secretary tenure makes a sub-month exit rare (terHorst 1974 is the only one, on a principled resignation), but a 10-day-old appointee with a live misdemeanor-exposure complaint, a hostile Fox interview and anonymous internal doubts carries a materially elevated hazard; ~1%/day over 15 days. The book (17/19, real NO depth 84¢, 70,933 contracts/24h, OI 125,168) is liquid and sits on that number.

Resolver profile: Kalshi single-official; pays on vacancy. Risks: "acting" reshuffle where she is sidelined but keeps the title (favors NO); announced resignation with a post-Oct 31 effective date (favors NO per secondary rule). Total deduction ~3 pts, already inside the 14%.

Cleanest lose tail: Trump fires her or accepts a resignation in the next 15 days — a new discrete event, not a continuation. Acceptable shape, but it is exactly what the price carries.

Entry context: YES 17/19 (best YES bid 3.6 contracts at 17¢, 525 at 16¢); NO ask 83–84¢; depth at or below 84¢ NO ≈ 528 contracts; vol24h 70,933; OI 125,168. 48h move: 10¢ (Oct 14) → 13¢ (Oct 15) → 12–20¢ range today. Verdict: inside spread, no deployment.

KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT24 — out before Oct 24, 2026?

Same YES condition and rules, 7.5-day window. Prob 6% pre-market → 6% final. NO costs 93¢ (YES 7/8, best YES bid 6,944 contracts). Max win 7% of capital at risk with no edge over the market; also at the edge of the inside-7d rule. Rejected.

KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 — Will the Bank of Canada hike 25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

YES condition: For YES to pay, Governing Council must raise the overnight-rate target by exactly 25bp at the 09:45 ET Oct 28, 2026 fixed announcement date, resolved by Kalshi on the Bank's press release. Institutional action at a dated step → Anchor-shaped.

Diligence: Official calendar (bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events): Oct 28, 2026 09:45 ET, with Monetary Policy Report. Sep 2, 2026 release: target held at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit 2.20%); "CPI inflation has been hovering around 3% … mainly because of persistently higher gasoline prices"; guidance "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." BNN Bloomberg Sep 18: October priced as a coin flip on oil; RBC (Fan), Desjardins (Bartlett), Capital Economics (Brown) base case no hike in 2026. Globe and Mail preview: RBC's Janzen calls Oct 28 "live" but not his base case; Sep CPI and the BOS land the week of Oct 19. Bluegamma OIS, as of Oct 16: hold 64% / hike 36% / cut 0%. TD: unchanged through next year.

Precedents consulted: 13 rows for this series (Jun/Jul/Sep 2026 ladders, all resolved as the consensus hold). KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H25 lesson: "Two-sided guidance keeps both middle rungs alive in the narrative while neither gets priced … resist trading the guidance text." 26JUL-H26: outer rungs only test off-cycle shocks. Resolver has paid cleanly on the press release every time.

Probability: P(hike) 27% pre-market → 25% final (economists' base case vs swaps at 36%; Kalshi 17/18 is the most dovish of the three). NO fair ≈ 75¢ vs NO ask 83¢ → −8¢. Resolver risk: negligible (0–1 pt). Cleanest lose tail: a hike — discrete, acceptable shape. Entry context: YES 17/18, NO 82/83, 52 contracts at the NO ask, vol24h 653, OI 33,841. Verdict: negative edge; the book already prices the hold harder than the swaps market. Rejected.

KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 — Will the Bank of Canada maintain the rate at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

Mirror of the hike leg. A "hold" is the content of the decision, not a process step reaching a defined stage, so it fails the process-in-motion test for an allowed YES; it is not "already happened" either. Prob 72% pre-market → 75% final vs YES ask 81¢ → −6¢. Entry: 80/81, 34 contracts at the ask, vol24h 1,013, OI 51,277. Rejected (same cluster as H25 in any case).

• Allowlist read from /tmp/out/targets.json: 120 series, min OI 5,000. Live data from the Kalshi public API (*_dollars/*_fp fields); candlesticks from the series/markets candlesticks endpoint; orderbook depth 12.
• 891 open markets fetched; 51 close within 45 days; 4 pass all mechanical cuts. Most Tier-1 departure/legal ladders close Jan 1, 2027 (77+ days) and are outside horizon; the within-horizon rungs are mostly ≤5¢ YES (deep favorites) or below the 500-contract volume floor.
• Mentions-style markets: none in the allowlist. Continuous-number series caught at Stage 0: KXSUEZWEEKLY (weekly transit counts), KXJUDGECOUNT.
• Precedent store: 165 rows read; none for KXZACHARIAOUT (derived from the departure/ouster archetype rows); 13 for KXCBDECISIONCANADA. No new precedent rows written this run (September BoC ladder already present; no other settled target-series market was researched).