# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Date: 2026-10-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-15-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-15 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · category focus: Politics · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500 · existing picks: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO

## 1. Summary

0picks70logged rejects$0allocated (0%)$2,500cash (100%)

**Zero picks this run — a normal Anchor result.** The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 877 live open markets) contains 43 markets closing or expiring inside the 45-day window. Almost all are priced at the extremes (YES ≤5¢ or NO ≥90¢), are inside 7 days, fail the live 500-contract volume floor, or carry a close_time a year after the expected expiration (the Nov 3 ballot-measure and Alberta referendum families). Three clusters reached Stage 2 and were fully worked: the Zacharia press-secretary ladder, the Bank of Canada Oct 28 ladder, and California Prop 40. None produced an edge that survives Anchor's side, tail and band rules. Cash is the position.

## 2. Universe and mechanical cuts (Stage 0)

- **Source:** `$TARGETS_FILE` (generated 2026-10-15T16:36Z, min OI 5,000): 120 series — 73 Tier 1 (departure/ouster, legal-action, confirmation/enact), 47 Tier 2 (corporate-event, scheduled-process, multi-news). Live Kalshi API queried for every series; the DB mirror was used only for rules text and was found to carry stale "active" rows with past close dates.
- **In-horizon markets:** 43 with close_time ≤ 2026-11-29 (plus the 11 KXIMPEACH rungs whose expected_expiration field sits inside the window while close_time is in 2027 — logged "close after expiration").
- **Cuts applied (live numbers):** volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢; YES bid ≥ 95¢ / YES ask ≤ 5¢; close_time > 1h after expected_expiration_time; expiry inside 7 days; Mentions-type; continuous-count ladders (KXSUEZWEEKLY, KXJUDGECOUNT); existing picks.
- **Survivors to Stage 2:** KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 (YES 12/14, vol24h 43.6k — specialist-dense), KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 / H0 (YES 17/18 and 82/83, vol24h 0.9k / 2.8k), and KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 (researched despite its mechanical close-after-expiration cut because it is the highest-OI Politics-adjacent market in the window).

## 3. Stage-2 work on the survivors

REJECTdeparture/oustermechanism: status-quoside: NO @ 88¢

### KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 — Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026?

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, Zacharia must formally and permanently vacate the press-secretary role (an actual departure date inside the window; leaves/suspensions do not count) before Nov 1, 2026 03:59Z, resolved by Kalshi on the rules_secondary text.

**Precedents consulted:** KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 / JUL01 ("anonymous 'it's only a matter of time' sourcing is not a resolution event… a principal who is publicly fighting back is signalling he has not been told to go"), KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUN01 / JUL01 ("even cross-party resignation calls plus documentary scandal do not move this archetype… absent a named successor, price any single month near the base rate"), KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 ("price this series off the President's own words, not the volume of criticism"). Store has no row for KXZACHARIAOUT itself.

**Diligence (primary/dated):** Named Oct 9 (CNBC, Time). First briefing Oct 13: ~15 minutes, three questions (NBC, Deadline). CNN Oct 13: "several White House officials are questioning how long Katie Zacharia will keep the press secretary job… one characterizing it as 'brutal'." Trump told reporters the same day she "did a good job" (The Blaze). Credential story: she told the room she passed the bar "when I moved to China", later said she misheard (The Hill); WSJ reported she failed the bar and was not a practicing lawyer; Campaign for Accountability filed a State Bar of California complaint (The Hill, Oct 14); CBC Oct 15 "mounting questions about resume". White House comms director Steven Cheung twice defended her ("fabulous and wonderful addition… uniquely qualified and whip smart"). No vehicle for a departure exists: no named successor, no announced effective date, no statement of intent to leave.

**Probability:** 12% pre-market → **11% final**. Market YES 12/14. Fair NO ≈ 89¢ vs fillable NO 88¢ (3,574 contracts at the 12¢ YES bid).

**Entry context:** yes_bid 12 / yes_ask 14, vol24h 43,625, OI 76,388, listed Oct 13 at YES 23¢ → 13¢ now (NO +10¢ in 48h).

**Why rejected (Stage 3):** **Continuation tail** — the single cleanest loss is the credential story escalating (more documents, a second bad briefing) until Trump cuts her loose; that is the current trend continuing, not a new discrete event. **Inside spread / no-trade band** — ~1¢ of edge at 88¢ after the book already faded the listing-day overreaction (+10¢ on the NO side in 48h, failing the 48h move check). Thin-favorite band at best (half size), in a specialist-dense book that demands a stronger, more specific edge than "scandal ≠ departure". The rules_secondary clause (must vacate inside the window) supports NO but may not be the edge.

REJECTscheduled-processmechanism: status-quoside: NO @ 83¢

### KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 — Will the Bank of Canada hike 25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must raise the overnight target by exactly 25bp at the fixed announcement date Oct 28, 2026 (09:45 ET, with MPR), resolved on the Bank's press release.

**Precedents consulted:** 13 rows in the series. 26SEP-H25 (NO): "On Kalshi the BoC hold rung is structurally richer than CORRA OIS… a NO on the hike rung therefore has no edge at Kalshi prices"; the October hike leg traded 8¢ → 47¢ → 14¢ → 20¢ between Sep 2 and Oct 14. 26JUN-H25 / 26JUL-H25 (NO): "explicit two-sided risk language is empirically a hold tell." 26SEP-H0 (YES): hold leg is process-in-motion in shape but "the hold-YES is still a forecast of the decision's content."

**Diligence:** Sep 2 hold at 2.25% (7th consecutive). Macklem Sep 21 "we don't want to be too slow to respond" (Bloomberg). Oct 9 LFS: −68k jobs, unemployment 6.5%; market-implied hike odds fell from ~40% to ~25% (Wealth Professional, Oct 13). Macklem's Oct 14 IIF Bangkok fireside chat "said nothing about monetary policy" (Scotiabank Daily Points, Oct 14); Scotiabank itself calls "a hike this quarter as soon as the October 28th decision or in December". Polymarket prices a 25bp hike at ~39¢. Sep CPI lands Oct 19 (consensus ~3.0% headline, core ~2.5% y/y); Brent ~$104 with Hormuz flows ~43% below pre-conflict (Kpler via CNBC, Oct 15).

**Probability:** P(hike) 24% pre-market → **23% final** (hold 76%, other 1%). Fair NO ≈ 77¢ vs fillable NO 83¢ for 34 contracts, 84–86¢ for the next ~600.

**Why rejected:** **Continuation tail** — the cleanest loss is the Oct 19 CPI showing energy pass-through continuing into core and the Bank acting at the MPR meeting, i.e. the current trend continuing. **Inside spread** — negative edge (Kalshi NO already richer than swaps, exactly the 26SEP-H25 lesson). H0 is the same cluster: YES-hold at 83¢ is a yes-side thesis (forecasts the decision's content) with no edge vs 76%; NO-hold at 17¢ is below band.

REJECTconfirmation/enactside: NO @ 75¢

### KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 — Will the one-time billionaire tax (Prop 40) pass in California?

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, Proposition 40 must receive a majority of votes on Nov 3, 2026, resolved on a consensus of designated media calls or the certified result.

**Precedents consulted:** none in the series; confirmation/enact rows (KXBILLS, KXRECNCH, KXAGCONF) are legislative-process precedents and do not transfer to a ballot vote.

**Diligence:** NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo poll yes 48 / no 38 / undecided 14 (Oct); Politico Sep 46–40; Manhattan Institute 35–50. Kalshi 26%, Polymarket ~25% (Yahoo Finance, Oct 13). Deseret Oct 13: measure is dividing California Democrats. Heavy opposition spending expected.

**Probability:** 30% pre-market → **30% final** (market 25/26). **Why rejected:** Stage-0 mechanical — close_time 2027-11-03T04:59Z is a year after expected_expiration_time 2026-11-03T15:00Z ("close after expiration"). It would also be a poll-driven thesis whose tail (polls hold or improve for YES) is a continuation tail, and NO at 75¢ has no edge against 30%.

## 4. Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions. Reserve requirement (≥10%) and cash-is-a-position both satisfied trivially: $2,500 (100%) held in cash. |  |  |  |  |  |

## 5. EV for the record

| Ticker | Side / price | Model P(YES) | Edge (¢) | EV % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 | NO @ 88 | 11% | +1 | +1.1% | rejected (continuation tail; inside band) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | NO @ 83 | 23% | −6 | −7.2% | rejected (continuation tail; negative edge) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | YES @ 83 | 76% | −7 | −8.4% | rejected (yes-side thesis) |
| KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 | NO @ 75 | 30% | −5 | −6.7% | rejected (close after expiration) |

## 6. Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs considered | Deployed |
|---|---|---|
| zacharia-wh-press-sec-exit | OCT20, OCT24, NOV01 rungs | none |
| boc-oct28-decision | H0, H25, H26, C25, C26 | none |
| ca-prop40-billionaire-tax | KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 | none |
| us-diesel-export-ban | KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 | already live (existing pick, NO) |

## 7. Risk profile and execution notes

- Portfolio: 100% cash; no new exposure; existing KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO untouched (now 97–98¢, deep-favorite band).
- Watch items that could create an Anchor-shaped entry before the next run: (a) Zacharia — a dated, on-the-record White House statement either way; if YES re-rallies above ~20¢ on more credential headlines without any departure vehicle, the NO re-enters the core band with a proper overreaction-fade shape. (b) BoC — after the Oct 19 CPI the hike rung will re-price; the NO only becomes a candidate if it trades _cheaper_ than OIS, which the precedent store says it rarely does. (c) The Nov 3 ballot-measure family stays mechanically excluded while close_time sits in 2027.
- Execution: nothing to execute.

## 8. Reject log

Every market in the window is logged with the side Anchor would have taken (NO unless stated), the price for that side, the probability for YES (market mid where no independent view was formed) and the reason. 70 rows.

### Stage-2 rejects

| Market | Archetype | Side | Price | P(YES) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 75¢ | 30% | close after expiration: close_time 2027-11-03T04:59Z is a year after expected_expiration_time 2026-11-03T15:00Z (Stage-0 mechanical). Would also be a poll-driven ballot thesis: NBC/Telemundo poll yes 48-38, Politico Sep 46-40, Manhattan Institute 35-50; a measure under 50% in October with heavy opposition spending usually fails, P(pass) ~30% vs market 25/26. No independent edge at NO 75c. |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT24` Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Oct 24, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 95¢ | 4% | deep-favorite band: YES 5/6 -> NO 95c (>=90c). Rules_secondary requires an actual vacancy inside the window; 8.5 days left. Cluster runner-up to the Nov 1 rung regardless. |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 88¢ | 11% | continuation tail + inside spread: the cleanest loss is the credential story (WSJ: failed the bar; CNN Oct 13: officials 'question how long she can last'; Campaign for Accountability bar complaint, The Hill Oct 14) escalating until Trump cuts her loose = the current trend continuing. P(out by Nov 1) 12% pre-market -> 11% final vs YES 12/14: NO at 88c is ~1c from fair, inside the no-trade band; NO also moved +10c in 48h (YES 23c at the Oct 13 listing -> 13c), so the overreaction has already been faded. Thin-favorite band, specialist-dense book (43.6k vol24h). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 83¢ | 23% | continuation tail + inside spread: P(hike) 24% pre-market -> 23% final (CORRA OIS ~25% after the Oct 9 LFS -68k/6.5% per Wealth Professional Oct 13; Polymarket 39% hike; Scotiabank calls a hike 'as soon as Oct 28'; TD/BMO/CIBC/RBC hold). Fair NO ~77c vs fillable NO 83c for 34 contracts, 84-86c for the next ~600: negative edge, and precedent 26SEP-H25 edge_notes say the Kalshi hold rung is structurally richer than swaps. Cleanest loss is Sep CPI (Oct 19, consensus 3.0% headline) showing Hormuz-driven energy pass-through into core and the Bank acting at the Oct 28 MPR meeting = the current trend continuing. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | YES | 83¢ | 76% | yes-side thesis: hold-YES forecasts the content of the Oct 28 decision, not a dated step that itself pays (precedent 26SEP-H0 lesson). YES ask 83c vs 76% final (75% pre-market): no edge. NO at 17-18c is below band. Cluster runner-up to the H25 NO leg, itself rejected. |

### Stage-0 / band rejects

| Market | Archetype | Side | Price | P(YES) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXRETIREMM-26` Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 99¢ | 1% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-AUG01` Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 58¢ | 44% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 165 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUN01` Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 67¢ | 34% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 59 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAY01` Will the President be impeached before May 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 71¢ | 30% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 94 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-APR01` Will the President be impeached before Apr 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 75¢ | 26% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 112 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-OCT01` Will the President be impeached before Oct 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 46¢ | 55% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it). Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUL01` Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 61¢ | 40% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 57 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-FEB01` Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 94¢ | 6% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 78¢ | 22% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it). Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | legal-action | NO | 34¢ | 66% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it). Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 97¢ | 3% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT20` Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Oct 20, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 99¢ | 2% | inside 7d: closes Oct 20 03:59Z (4.5 days). Also YES ask 2c <= 5c and deep-favorite band. |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-I194` Will I-194 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 55¢ | 50% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-24); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 9c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-CI133` Will CI-133 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 31¢ | 74% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-24); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 10c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-CI132` Will CI-132 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 30¢ | 75% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-24); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 10c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXRETIREPELOSI-26` Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 99¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 30 < 500; YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01` Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 99¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01` Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve | departure/ouster | NO | 100¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXJUDGECOUNT-26OCT-0` Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026? | confirmation/enact | NO | 100¢ | 1% | continuous-number market (confirmation count ladder); volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T330` Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 92¢ | 9% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T320` Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 85¢ | 16% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T310` Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 54¢ | 48% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T300` Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 34¢ | 66% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T290` Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 22¢ | 80% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T280` Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 15¢ | 86% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T270` Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 7¢ | 94% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T260` Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 3¢ | 98% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d (closes Oct 20); inside 7d; YES bid 97c >= 95c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01` Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 99¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 372 < 500; YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03` Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents | departure/ouster | NO | 88¢ | 15% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 16 < 500; spread 5c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXCAVOTERID-26` Will the 2026 California Voter ID initiative pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 72¢ | 29% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 358 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-VA` Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 13¢ | 91% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 9c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-NV` Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 10¢ | 94% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 9c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-MO` Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 52¢ | 51% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03); close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 6c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01` Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 100¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 3c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-NOV03` Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Nov 3, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 97¢ | 4% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 11 < 500; YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXLEAVEDUNN` Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | departure/ouster | NO | 100¢ | 3% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: spread 6c > 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXNETANYAHUPARDON-26-NOV01` Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 99¢ | 3% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q09` Will Question 9 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 59¢ | 45% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q08` Will Question 8 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 74¢ | 29% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q07` Will Question 7 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 68¢ | 36% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 200 < 500; spread 7c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q06` Will Question 6 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 62¢ | 42% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q05` Will Question 5 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 6¢ | 96% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 217 < 500. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q04` Will Question 4 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 15¢ | 89% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q03` Will Question 3 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 14¢ | 90% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q02` Will Question 2 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 21¢ | 83% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q01` Will Question 1 pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 17¢ | 88% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: close after expiration (close_time 2027-10-19 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-19); referendum is Oct 19 = inside 7d; close after expiration (close_time beyond horizon vs expected_expiration inside it); volume24h 0 < 500; spread 9c > 5c. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26NOV21` Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop leg | confirmation/enact | NO | 100¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 3c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26NOV01` Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 5% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; spread 6c > 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | NO | 99¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: inside 7d; volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 1% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01` Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 94¢ | 8% | Mentions-type market ('will Trump publicly criticize'); also volume24h 399 < 500 and deep-favorite band. |
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01` Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acqui | corporate-event | NO | 99¢ | 3% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 5c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 4% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01` When will OpenAI IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26` Will Bank of Canada hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 1% | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1c; volume24h 0 < 500; outer rung structural zero (precedent 26JUL-H26). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26` Will Bank of Canada cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 0% | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1c; volume24h 0 < 500; outer rung of a fixed-date ladder is a structural zero (precedent 26JUL-C26). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25` Will Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 1% | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1c; volume24h 0 < 500. Precedent 26JUL-C25: the BoC cut rung is an option on US trade policy, not on Ottawa. |
| `KXIPOSTARLINK-26NOV01` When will Starlink IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imp | multi-news-other | NO | 98¢ | 3% | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO); also YES ask 3c <= 5c, deep-favorite band. |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 99¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXIPOANDURIL-26NOV01` When will Anduril IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03` Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 99¢ | 2% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |
| `KXOAIPERSONALAGENT-27JAN01-26NOV01` Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 92¢ | 8% | Stage-0 mechanical cut: volume24h 16 < 500; deep-favorite band. Prob = market mid (no independent view). |

## 9. Sources

- Kalshi public API: /markets, /orderbook, /candlesticks (fetched 2026-10-15 ~16:45Z); DB query API /schema, trading_markets, resolution_precedents.
- CNN Oct 13 "White House officials question how long Katie Zacharia can last"; CNN Oct 14 analysis "presented herself as a lawyer. She's not"; The Hill (bar complaint; "misheard"); Washington Post Oct 13; CBC Oct 15; The Blaze (Trump: "did a good job"); whitehouse.gov Oct 13 release; Wikipedia (Katie Zacharia, updated Oct 15).
- Scotiabank Daily Points Oct 14, 2026; Wealth Professional Oct 13 (hike odds 40% → 25%); Bloomberg Sep 21 (Macklem); bankofcanada.ca Oct 14 fireside chat; FXStreet Oct 14 CPI preview; CNBC/TradingEconomics Oct 15 oil.
- NBC News (NBCU/Telemundo Prop 40 poll); Yahoo Finance Oct 13 (Kalshi/Polymarket odds); Deseret Oct 13; Wikipedia 2026 California Proposition 40.

Anchor methodology: NO-side structural engine. Side rule, continuous-number, continuation-tail and rules-reading rejections applied in order; bands 60–84¢ core / 85–89¢ half / ≥90¢ reject / <60¢ reject; flat 10% sizing; one leg per cluster.