# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-10-14

Date: 2026-10-14
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-14-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

---
# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-14 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · category focus: Politics (advisory) · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500 · universe: targets.json (120 allowlisted series, generated 2026-10-14 16:36 UTC)

## Summary

Picks0
Capital deployed$0100% cash ($2,500)
Stage-2 candidates2both rejected
Logged rejects472 Stage-2 + 45 mechanical

**Zero picks is the result.** The allowlist contains 872 open markets, but only 47 expire inside the 45-day horizon and only two survive the Stage-0 mechanical cuts: the Bank of Canada October 28 hike and hold legs. Both fail Anchor's gates. The NO on the hike rung (82¢ effective entry) has zero edge against a 20% hike probability, and Kalshi already prices the hold more confidently than CORRA swaps do (hold 63–69% implied on Oct 14 vs 81–82% on Kalshi). The hold-YES leg is a yes-side forecast of the decision's content with 2¢ of edge inside fees. Cash is the position this week.

**Why the slate is thin.** Most of the high-OI Politics series in the allowlist (impeachment ladders, 2026 ballot measures, Alberta referendum questions) carry a Nov-2026 `expected_expiration_time` with a 2027 `close_time`, which the Anchor rule treats as "close after expiration". The remaining departure/ouster and legal-action series either expire beyond 45 days or trade at ≤5¢ YES with no NO-side entry inside the band.

## Picks

None. See the Stage-2 reject cards below for the two markets that were fully researched.

## Stage-2 rejects (fully researched, side and probability recorded for the passed-on scoreboard)

REJECTEDNO @ 82¢status-quoscheduled-process · cluster `boc-oct28-decision`

### Bank of Canada hikes 25bps at Oct 28, 2026 meeting? (KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25)

YES conditionFor YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must announce a 25bp increase in the overnight target (to 2.50%) in its 09:45 ET press release on Oct 28, 2026, resolved by Kalshi on that release.
Probability (YES)20% pre-market → 20% final
EV for the record-2.0¢ per contract on the NO side at 82¢ (-2.4% before fees)
Entry contextYES 18/19 · depth at/under limit 431 · vol24h 1,624 · OI 33,592
48h moveYES 15–16¢ (Oct 12) → 18–19¢ (Oct 14), +3¢; 20¢ print at 13:00 UTC Oct 14 on Hormuz tanker strikes
Reject reasoninside spread: NO at 82¢ vs 80% hold probability (pre-market 20% → final 20% for YES) is zero edge before fees; Kalshi already prices the hold richer than CORRA OIS (hold 63–69% on Oct 14), so fading the hike rung pays up. Cleanest tail (Oct 19 CPI showing gasoline pass-through continuing, then an MPR-meeting hike) is also a continuation tail.
Precedents consultedKXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 / -26SEP-H0 (Oct 9 run notes: Kalshi hike leg 14/17 vs 27–28% OIS; hold-YES is a yes-side thesis unless dislocated); -26JUL-H25, -26JUN-H25 (two-sided guidance is a hold tell; hike rung not live despite oil); KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25/H0 (36–38% hike priced into FOMC, still held; buy the hold rung only when knocked well below par).

REJECTEDYES @ 78¢process-in-motionscheduled-process · cluster `boc-oct28-decision`

### Bank of Canada maintains rate at Oct 28, 2026 meeting? (KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0)

YES conditionFor YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must leave the overnight target at 2.25% in its Oct 28, 2026 09:45 ET announcement, resolved by Kalshi on that release.
Probability (YES)79% pre-market → 80% final
EV for the record+2.0¢ per contract on the YES side at 78¢ (+2.6% before fees)
Entry contextYES 76/78 · depth at/under limit 157 · vol24h 1,013 · OI 50,208
48h moveYES 84–85¢ (Oct 12) → 78–79¢ (Oct 14), −6¢ on the same Hormuz news
Reject reasonyes-side thesis: hold-YES forecasts the decision's content, not a process step (precedent KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 lesson); price is not dislocated (78¢ ask vs 80% final, 79% pre-market), 2¢ of edge sits inside fees and the book-derived no-trade band; thin book (10–77 contracts per level under 80¢).
Precedents consultedKXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 / -26SEP-H0 (Oct 9 run notes: Kalshi hike leg 14/17 vs 27–28% OIS; hold-YES is a yes-side thesis unless dislocated); -26JUL-H25, -26JUN-H25 (two-sided guidance is a hold tell; hike rung not live despite oil); KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25/H0 (36–38% hike priced into FOMC, still held; buy the hold rung only when knocked well below par).

## Diligence record — Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 (cluster boc-oct28-decision )

### Rules and resolver

Rules primary (both legs, API verbatim): _"If the Bank of Canada takes the action of hike 25bps / maintain the current rate at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes."_ No `rules_secondary` clarification. Resolver = Kalshi reading the Bank's 09:45 ET press release; precedent rows show same-day settlement on the rung matching the announced action across June, July and September 2026 ladders. Resolver-risk deduction: 0–1 pt (fixed announcement date, single official source, no definitional boundary).

### Vehicle and calendar (primary sources)

- **Vehicle:** "Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report", Oct 28, 2026, 09:45 ET, on the Bank's upcoming-events page. Next announcement Dec 9, 2026 (no MPR).
- **Inputs still to land before the decision:** September CPI, Statistics Canada, Oct 19 08:30 ET (consensus ~3.2% y/y vs 3.0% in August); Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Oct 19 11:30 ET. Macklem fireside chat at the IIF (Bangkok, Oct 14, remarks not published by the Bank; no wire coverage indexed at run time) and an IMF panel on Oct 16; Rogers (Oct 15) and Alexopoulos (Oct 16) also speak before blackout.
- **Bank's own record:** Sep 2 press release: "CPI inflation has been hovering around 3% in recent months, mainly because of persistently higher gasoline prices"; ex-gasoline 2.2%, core near 2%; "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." Sep 16 Summary of Deliberations: "So far, there was little evidence that higher gasoline prices were passing through broadly"; "if higher energy prices did spill over into other components of the CPI, members agreed that it could require a monetary policy response"; no passage records a discussion of raising the rate.
- **Since then:** Macklem, Halifax, Sep 21: "We don't want to be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent." September Labour Force Survey (Oct 9): −68,000 jobs, unemployment 6.5%, wages +2.3% y/y, public-sector −70,000. Oil re-escalated: Reuters Oct 14, Brent $106.32, WTI $94.80 after two vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian officials said new tactics were deployed ~10 days earlier.
- **Forecasters (Oct 13):** BMO ("watchful waiting"), CIBC (hold at both remaining 2026 meetings), TD ("cold water on near-term rate hike expectations"), RBC (cautions against over-reading the jobs print), Desjardins (unchanged this month) vs National Bank and Scotiabank (October hike; Scotia Oct 9: "no such thing as immaculate disinflation"), Capital Economics (hikes toward 2.75% but "not in October" base case as of Sep 22).
- **Market-implied (OIS):** ~40% hike pre-LFS → ~25% Oct 9–13 → 31% (bankofcanadaodds, Oct 14 07:51) / 37% (BlueGamma, Oct 14).

### Probability

**Pre-market, before the book:** 20% hike / 80% hold / ~0% cut. Reasoning: seven consecutive holds; the Bank's stated hike trigger is broad pass-through, which its own Sep 16 record says is not yet evident; core near 2%; a −68k jobs print and new US tariffs (the Bank's named cut trigger) pull the other way; precedent rows show "two-sided guidance" and "dilemma" language resolve as holds, and the July 2026 FOMC held with 36–38% hike priced. Against: oil back at $106 Brent with an MPR meeting, two big-six hike calls, and Macklem's "too slow" framing. **Final after the book:** 20%. Kalshi (18–19¢) sits below both my number and the swaps-implied 31–37%; nothing in the book justified moving.

### Thesis-shape tests

- **Side rule:** NO on H25 is the Anchor side. YES on H0 is a decision-content forecast, not a process step; precedent lesson on KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 says exactly this. Reject `yes-side thesis`.
- **Continuous-number thesis:** not applicable, discrete policy action.
- **Continuation tail (NO on H25):** cleanest loss = Sep CPI on Oct 19 shows ex-gasoline/core moving up and the Bank acts at the MPR meeting. That is "pass-through keeps going", the record's named continuation tail. Would reject on this alone.
- **Rules-reading edge:** none claimed.
- **Book-derived no-trade band:** NO at 82¢ vs 80% → −2.0¢ per contract. Reject `inside spread`. Entry band would have been core (82¢) and the depth cap would have allowed 143 contracts (1/3 of 431 visible at YES 18), but there is nothing to buy.

## Portfolio, risk profile and execution

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max win | Cluster |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| _No positions. Cash $2,500 (100%). Reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially met._ |  |  |  |  |  |  |

**Risk profile:** zero market exposure; the existing live pick (KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO) is unchanged and was logged as "already an active pick". **Execution notes:** none. If the hold leg (H0) is knocked well below par after the Oct 19 CPI (precedent: Sep 23 print of 57¢), it becomes an overreaction-fade candidate for the next run; a NO on the hike rung above ~85¢ never does.

## Mechanical rejects (Stage 0), within the 45-day horizon

Every open market in an allowlisted series with `expected_expiration_time` inside 45 days that failed a mechanical cut. Side for the scoreboard is the Anchor default (NO) with price = 100 − YES bid. The 825 allowlisted markets expiring beyond 45 days are out of scope and not listed.

| Ticker | Tier / archetype | Title | YES bid/ask | Vol24h | OI | Expires | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pa | 27/28 | 30,789 | 702,785 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T320` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 13/15 | 10,539 | 2,329 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` | T1 departure/ouster | Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? — Before election day 20 | 1/2 | 9,790 | 1,387,574 | 2026-11-03 | YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T330` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 5/8 | 6,812 | 1,847 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T260` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 97/98 | 4,721 | 4,451 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d; YES bid ≥ 95¢ |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T300` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 63/67 | 4,424 | 1,815 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T270` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 93/94 | 1,690 | 2,655 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-FEB01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? — Before Feb 1, 20 | 5/7 | 1,476 | 2,548 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T290` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 65/71 | 1,448 | 1,081 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? — Before Mar 1, 20 | 22/24 | 1,285 | 170,913 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T310` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 31/32 | 1,245 | 848 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q05` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 5 pass? | 95/98 | 1,176 | 1,518 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; YES bid ≥ 95¢ |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 20 | 65/66 | 1,110 | 388,099 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T280` | T1 legal-action | Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from | 83/88 | 993 | 573 | 2026-10-20 | inside 7d; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXJUDGECOUNT-26OCT-0` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026? — At least 1 | 0/1 | 935 | 36,480 | 2026-11-01 | YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` | T2 multi-news-other | Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? — Be | 1/3 | 806 | 46,581 | 2026-11-10 | YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 20 | 3/3 | 627 | 534,273 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; YES ask ≤ 5¢ (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` | T2 multi-news-other | Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United Stat | 6/9 | 531 | 64,407 | 2026-11-10 | already an active pick |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-OCT01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 20 | 53/54 | 379 | 977 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUL01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 20 | 39/41 | 279 | 2,691 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q08` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 8 pass? | 26/31 | 234 | 4,240 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-AUG01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027? — Before Aug 1, 20 | 43/46 | 195 | 191 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXCAVOTERID-26` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will the 2026 California Voter ID initiative pass? | 27/29 | 194 | 13,012 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25` | T2 scheduled-process | Will Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | 0/1 | 160 | 13,770 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-CI132` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will CI-132 pass? | 70/80 | 30 | 42 | 2026-11-24 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXMARENTCONTROL-26` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will the Massachusetts Rent Control Initiative in Massachusetts pass? | 4/7 | 10 | 13,376 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-APR01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Apr 1, 2027? — Before Apr 1, 20 | 25/26 | 1 | 1 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAY01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before May 1, 2027? — Before May 1, 20 | 28/30 | 1 | 1 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JUN01` | T1 legal-action | Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2027? — Before Jun 1, 20 | 32/34 | 1 | 1 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500 (expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close 2027; effective horizon beyond 45d) |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-I194` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will I-194 pass? | 45/54 | 0 | 31 | 2026-11-24 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MT-CI133` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will CI-133 pass? | 69/79 | 0 | 12 | 2026-11-24 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXRETIREPELOSI-26` | T1 departure/ouster | Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? — Before election day 2026 | 1/2 | 0 | 101,955 | 2026-11-03 | volume24h < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-VA` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia | 88/96 | 0 | 3,371 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-NV` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass? | 90/99 | 0 | 21 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-MO` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass? | 48/54 | 0 | 4,362 | 2026-11-03 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXLEAVEDUNN` | T1 departure/ouster | Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? — Yes | 6/9 | 0 | 6,807 | 2026-11-03 | volume24h < 500 |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q09` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 9 pass? | 41/49 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q07` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 7 pass? | 26/34 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q06` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 6 pass? | 38/46 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q04` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 4 pass? | 85/93 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q03` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 3 pass? | 86/94 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q02` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 2 pass? | 79/87 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXALBERTAREFS-26OCT19-Q01` | T1 confirmation/enact | Will Question 1 pass? | 83/92 | 0 | 0 | 2026-11-19 | close after expiration; volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢ |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26` | T2 scheduled-process | Will Bank of Canada hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting | 0/1 | 0 | 2,400 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26` | T2 scheduled-process | Will Bank of Canada cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | 0/1 | 0 | 537 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h < 500; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |

**Notable:** KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 (YES 27/28, vol24h 30,789, OI 702,785) is the one high-liquidity Tier-1 market in the window and was removed only by the close-after-expiration rule (close 2027-11-03 vs expected expiration 2026-11-03). It is a Nov 3, 2026 ballot measure, not a continuous-number market; flagging in case the rule is meant to tolerate ballot-measure padding.

## Precedents consulted and writeback

Queried `resolution_precedents` for series KXCBDECISIONCANADA (13 rows) and archetype scheduled-process (non-Hormuz rows: KXFEDDECISION, KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT, KXTARIFFCHECKS, KXMJSCHEDULE). Rows leaned on are quoted on the reject cards. One writeback row written to `/tmp/out/precedents.json` for the settled KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 market: resolution facts verified against the Bank's Sep 2 release and Sep 16 deliberations, plus the durable observation that the Kalshi hold rung trades structurally richer than CORRA OIS (Oct 9 and Oct 14 readings).

## Sources

- Bank of Canada, press release Sep 2, 2026 — bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/
- Bank of Canada, Summary of Governing Council deliberations (Sep 2 FAD), published Sep 16, 2026
- Bank of Canada, Upcoming events (Oct 28 announcement + MPR; Dec 9)
- Bank of Canada, Fireside chat with Tiff Macklem, IIF Bangkok, Oct 14, 2026 ("Remarks will not be published")
- Canadian Mortgage Trends, Sep 2026 — Macklem Halifax remarks Sep 21
- Wealth Professional and Benefits & Pensions Monitor, Oct 13, 2026 — September LFS and big-six reactions
- Reuters via BOE Report, Oct 14, 2026 — Hormuz vessel strikes, Brent $106.32 / WTI $94.80
- Scotiabank Global Week Ahead, Oct 9, 2026
- BlueGamma BoC OIS-implied probabilities (Oct 14); bankofcanadaodds.com (Oct 14 07:51)
- Yahoo Finance Canada, Sep 22, 2026 — swaps near coin-flip, RBC/Desjardins/Capital Economics quotes
- Kalshi public API: markets, orderbook, candlesticks for KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 and -H0 (fetched 2026-10-14 ~17:00 UTC)

Generated 2026-10-14. All prices in cents for the named side. Probabilities are for YES.