# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-10-13

Date: 2026-10-13
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-13-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-13 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · category focus Politics · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500

## 1. Summary

**One pick, 37 logged rejects, $124.96 deployed (5.0% of capital), $2,375.04 (95.0%) held in cash.**

The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 702 open markets) yields only 37 markets closing inside the 45-day horizon, and the market has already priced the status quo to 95¢+ on nearly all of them. After the mechanical cuts (volume, spread, 5¢/95¢ edges, 7-day rule, continuous-number and Mentions filters) three markets reached Stage 2: the Bank of Canada October hike leg, the Bank of Canada hold leg, and the Lisa Cook "try to fire" rung. Kimberly Guilfoyle's resignation today (Oct 13) settled the Greece-ambassador market in fact but at 96/97 it is in the deep-favorite band.

The single survivor is **NO on "Will the President try to fire Lisa Cook before Nov 1, 2026?" at 88¢**, a status-quo thesis anchored on the President's own calendar: the Oct 7 memorandum fixes the committee hearing for Nov 5, four days after this rung closes. It sits in the 85–89¢ thin-favorites band, so it deploys at half size. The edge is thin (about 2¢) and is stated as such.

Zero-to-one picks is the expected Anchor output in a week where the NO side is already fully priced. Cash is a position; 95% cash is the correct result here, not a failure to find trades.

## 2. Suggested portfolio — position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost (max loss) | Max win | Conviction | Band | Cluster |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01` | NO | 88¢ | 142 | $124.96 | $17.04 | MEDIUM | 85–89¢ thin favorite → half size (5%) | cook-fed-removal-process |
| **Cash reserve** | $2,375.04 | 95.0% of capital (minimum reserve is 10%) |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## 3. Pick card

Mechanism: status-quoBUY NO @ 88¢Conviction: mediummulti-news-other

### Trump tries to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook before Nov 1, 2026?

KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01 · closes 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z · resolver: Kalshi, per rules_secondary list of qualifying acts

**YES condition.** For YES to pay, between this rung's issuance (Oct 8, 2026 19:43Z) and Nov 1, 2026 15:00Z the President must sign a termination document, direct an official to terminate Cook, publicly state he has fired or decided to fire her, have the White House announce termination, send her a termination letter, or initiate formal legal proceedings for removal, as judged by Kalshi. Success of the attempt is irrelevant.

**Thesis.** Status quo: the President's own committee hearing on Cook is set for Nov 5, four days after this rung closes, so a YES needs Trump to blow up his own SCOTUS-mandated process before his own hearing.

**Probability.** 10% pre-market → 10% final for YES (book 12/14). Fair NO ≈ 90¢; fillable NO 88¢ for 1,902 contracts.

**Vehicle and calendar (primary sources).** whitehouse.gov, Presidential Memorandum of Oct 7, 2026, "Establishment of a Committee of Inquiry to Investigate Allegations of False Statements by Lisa DeNell Cook": the committee (Hassett, Sonderling, Lucas) "shall, on November 5, 2026, conduct an in-person hearing" at the White House of no more than four hours; Cook may file a post-hearing statement by Nov 10; the committee then reports findings and "shall recommend whether there is cause to remove." The Supreme Court's June 29, 2026 ruling in Trump v. Cook requires notice and a hearing before removal (CNBC Oct 9; PBS Oct 9). Cook's counsel (Lowell, Eisen) said they are "engaged with the White House to evaluate whether the process proposed has a possibility of being a genuine one." No step of this process lands before Nov 1.

**Precedents consulted.** KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26OCT01 (settled NO Oct 1, 2026): "the clock starts at each rung's own issuance, so a pre-issuance action never pays"; the Oct 7 memo pre-dates this rung's Oct 8 issuance. KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26SEP01 (settled NO): "monthly TRYFIRE rungs after a court loss are status-quo NO until the President has a lawful path; the process steps (memo, hearing) land on dates you can read off whitehouse.gov." Edge note on the Oct 1 rung: Cook's counsel cite Trump's "repeated statements that he has already decided to fire" her, yet no such statement resolved the Sep 1 or Oct 1 rung, so the resolver's bar for the "decided to fire" clause is above Trump's rhetoric.

**Resolver profile and risk pricing.** Resolver is Kalshi applying an enumerated list; the market closes early on a qualifying act. Deductions: (a) Kalshi retroactively reads the Oct 7/9 memorandum as "initiating formal legal proceedings," ~3 pts (the market has traded five days and 32k contracts on Oct 11 without an early close, and the sister Dec 1 rung trades 38/45, which it would not if the memo paid); (b) an ambiguous "she'll be gone" remark read as "decided to fire," ~3 pts; (c) impulsive on-record firing statement before the hearing, ~4 pts. Total ≈ 10 pts, under the 15-pt reject line.

**Cleanest tail.** A new discrete event: Trump posts or says on camera that Cook is fired or that he has decided to fire her before Nov 5, abandoning the due-process cure his own lawyers built after losing at the Supreme Court. This is not a trend continuing; the trend (process, hearing, report) runs past the deadline. Priced in the 10%.

**48h move and book.** YES spiked to 40–53¢ on Oct 10 and ran 16–40¢ on Oct 11 (32k contracts) as traders debated whether the memo's Oct 9 publication qualified, then settled to 12–14¢ on Oct 12–13 once no early close came. Specialist-dense book (vol24h 17,117; OI 59,589), which is why size is held to the half-size band cap rather than the depth cap (1/3 of 1,902 = 634).

Entry YES bid/ask 12 / 14NO fillable 88¢ × 1,902Vol 24h 17,117Open interest 59,589Edge +2¢ (fair NO 90)EV +2.3% gross; ≈ +1.5% after ~0.7¢ fee

## 4. EV for the record

| Ticker | Side | Price | P(YES) pre → final | Fair (side) | Edge | EV/contract | EV % | Contracts | Expected $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01` | NO | 88¢ | 10% → 10% | 90¢ | +2¢ | +2.0¢ | +2.3% | 142 | +$2.84 |

Sizing is flat and EV-agnostic (Anchor): 10% of capital per pick, 5% in the 85–89¢ band, then the depth cap. EV is recorded for the scoreboard only.

## 5. Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs considered | Deployed leg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| cook-fed-removal-process | 26NOV01 (NO), 26DEC01 (NO, outside horizon) | 26NOV01 NO | Dec 1 rung contains the Nov 5 hearing and the committee report; genuine coin flip, not Anchor-shaped. |
| boc-oct28-decision | H25 (NO), H0 (YES), C25/C26/H26 (Stage-0) | none | H25 NO fillable 86–88¢ vs fair ~81¢: negative edge. H0 YES is a yes-side thesis. |
| guilfoyle-greece-exit | 26NOV01 (YES) | none | Resigned Oct 13; 96/97 is deep-favorite band. |
| zacharia-presssec-exit | 26OCT20, 26OCT24, 26NOV01 (NO) | none | Deep-favorite band or 11¢ spread on a day-old book. |
| suez-weekly-count | 8 rungs | none | Continuous-number ladder, inside 7d. |

## 6. Risk profile

- **Max loss** $124.96 (5.0% of capital) if Trump makes a qualifying attempt before Nov 1. **Max win** $17.04.
- **Concentration.** One leg, one cluster, one resolver. No correlation with the existing live pick (diesel export ban).
- **Horizon.** 19 days to close; the rung does not straddle any scheduled step of the removal process.
- **Resolver risk** ≈ 10 pts, dominated by Kalshi's reading of "decided to fire" rhetoric and of the memorandum. No dated clarification in rules_secondary as of Oct 13.
- **Thin edge.** Honest fair value is 89–91¢ against an 88¢ fill; after fees this is a 1–2¢ carry. If the NO ask moves to 89¢ or above, do not chase.

## 7. Execution notes

- Buy NO at a limit of 88¢ (equivalently sell YES at 12¢ against the resting 1,902-contract YES bid). Do not pay 89¢+: at 89¢ the thin-favorites band is still open but the edge is gone.
- Order size 142 contracts is well inside the 1/3-of-visible-depth cap (634); a single order should fill.
- The market closes early on any qualifying attempt; there is no exit to manage, only the Nov 1 settlement.
- Watch items that would change nothing unless they occur: a Truth Social post about Cook; any whitehouse.gov document moving the hearing earlier; a Kalshi clarification appended to rules_secondary.

## 8. Rejected markets (logged, scoreable)

Every market inside the 45-day horizon that reached Stage 0 or beyond. Side and price are what Anchor would have taken; probability is the final YES estimate (market mid where not researched).

| Ticker | Side | Price | P(YES) | Cluster | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25`Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | NO | 86¢ | 19% | boc-oct28-decision | inside spread: fillable NO is 86c for 49 contracts then 87-88c, vs fair NO ~81c (P(hike) 18% pre-market -> 19% final; CORRA OIS 27% hike on Oct 13 per BlueGamma; Sep 2 statement two-sided 'prepared to adjust'; LFS Oct 9 -68k jobs, UE 6.5%; Sep CPI lands Oct 19 inside the window). Negative edge, and the tail is oil pass-through continuing into a hot Oct 19 CPI (continuation tail). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0`Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? | YES | 84¢ | 80% | boc-oct28-decision | yes-side thesis: a hold-YES forecasts the content of a scheduled decision, not a dated step that itself pays; neither already-happened nor process-in-motion. YES ask 84c vs 80% final (78% pre-market; OIS hold 73%). NO at 16c is below band. Precedent 26JUL-H0/26JUN-H0: hold leg is 1-3c carry, 'stop calling it a pick'. |
| `KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01`Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US Ambassador to Greece before Nov 1, 2026? | YES | 97¢ | 96% | guilfoyle-greece-exit | deep-favorite band: Guilfoyle resigned Oct 13, 2026 at the White House's request (CNBC, Axios, Washington Times, Oct 13) and the rules pay on the actual vacate date; YES 96/97 is above the 90c cap and fails the Stage-0 YES bid >= 95c cut. Already-happened shape, but no band left. |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26NOV01`Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026? | NO | 95¢ | 4% | zacharia-presssec-exit | inside spread: book opened Oct 13 and is 11c wide (YES 5/16); NO fillable only at 95c, which is also deep-favorite band. No vehicle for a departure; she announced the Guilfoyle exit today. |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT24`Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Oct 24, 2026? | NO | 96¢ | 3% | zacharia-presssec-exit | deep-favorite band: YES 4/6 -> NO 94-96c (>=90c). Status quo already fully priced. |
| `KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26DEC01`Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors | NO | 62¢ | 45% | cook-fed-removal-process | outside horizon: closes Dec 1 (49 days). Not researched; the Nov 5 hearing and post-Nov 10 committee report sit inside this window, so it is a genuine coin flip rather than an Anchor shape. Same cluster as the pick. |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26`Will it be reported that a US diesel export ban is in effect before Nov 3, 2026? | NO | 95¢ | 6% | diesel-export-ban | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO). NO now 92-95c, deep-favorite band anyway. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17`When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | NO | 100¢ | 0% | anthropic-ipo-timing | Stage-0 mechanical: inside 7d; volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXZACHARIAOUT-26OCT-26OCT20`Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Oct 20, 2026? | NO | 97¢ | 3% | zacharia-presssec-exit | Stage-0 mechanical: inside 7d; YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T330`Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 96¢ | 5% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T320`Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 91¢ | 9% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T310`Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 80¢ | 20% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d; volume24h 0 < 500. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T300`Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 72¢ | 28% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d; volume24h 12 < 500. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T290`Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 55¢ | 45% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d; volume24h 0 < 500. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T280`Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 42¢ | 58% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d; volume24h 4 < 500. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T270`Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 20¢ | 81% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T260`Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | NO | 9¢ | 91% | suez-weekly-count | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (weekly transit-count ladder); inside 7d. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24`When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | NO | 100¢ | 0% | anthropic-ipo-timing | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26`Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | NO | 100¢ | 0% | boc-oct28-decision | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 35 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26`Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | NO | 100¢ | 0% | boc-oct28-decision | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25`Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | NO | 99¢ | 1% | boc-oct28-decision | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 65 < 500; YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXJUDGECOUNT-26OCT-0`Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026? | NO | 100¢ | 0% | kxjudgecount-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: continuous-number market (confirmation count); volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01`Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026? | NO | 100¢ | 1% | kxleavemerz-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 3c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01`Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | NO | 100¢ | 0% | patel-exit | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 1c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01`Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve | NO | 100¢ | 2% | kxleavepowellgov-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 4c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26NOV01`Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov | NO | 98¢ | 5% | kxmartindncout-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; spread 6c > 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01`When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | NO | 99¢ | 1% | anthropic-ipo-timing | Stage-0 mechanical: YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01`Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026? | NO | 95¢ | 6% | kxdjtattackwarsh-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: Mentions-type market ('will X say Y'); volume24h 10 < 500; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01`Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | NO | 98¢ | 2% | hegseth-exit | Stage-0 mechanical: YES ask 3c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXNETANYAHUPARDON-26-NOV01`Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026? | NO | 99¢ | 3% | kxnetanyahupardon-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV`Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | NO | 99¢ | 1% | kxusairanagreement-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03`Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents | NO | 87¢ | 15% | kxdemschumer-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 5 < 500. |
| `KXLEAVEDUNN`Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | NO | 94¢ | 7% | kxleavedunn-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03`Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | NO | 98¢ | 2% | kxmillerout-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: YES ask 3c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXRETIREMM-26`Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | NO | 99¢ | 1% | kxretiremm-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXRETIREPELOSI-26`Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? | NO | 99¢ | 1% | kxretirepelosi-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 2c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |
| `KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03`Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026? | NO | 99¢ | 2% | kxfettermanswitch-status-quo | Stage-0 mechanical: volume24h 20 < 500; YES ask 3c <= 5c; deep-favorite band (NO >= 90c). |

## 9. Universe and method notes

- **Universe.** targets.json generated 2026-10-13T16:36Z: 120 series (74 Tier 1, 46 Tier 2). Public API lists 702 open markets across them; 37 close by Nov 27, 2026. Tier 1 was worked first; the tier-1 slate is entirely 95¢+ status-quo rungs or sub-500 volume.
- **Just outside the horizon** (not candidates, not researched): KXKASHOUT Dec 1 (5/7), KXHEGSETHOUT Dec 1 (15/19), KXIPOANTHROPIC Dec 1 (59/61), KXTRYFIRECOOK Dec 1 (38/45), KXGUILFOYLEOUT Dec 1 (99/100). The election-day ballot-measure series close in Nov 2027 and fail the close-after-expiration rule.
- **Data.** DB schema read from /api/db/schema; market list cross-checked against the public API (the DB join returned 44 rows, the live API 37 open within horizon). Prices from *_dollars fields; history from the candlesticks endpoint; books from /orderbook (orderbook_fp).
- **Bank of Canada work, for the record.** Sep 2 statement held at 2.25% (seventh hold since Oct 29, 2025) with "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed"; Sep 16 deliberations summary flagged elevated near-term inflation and risk of spillover; Macklem Sep 21 (Halifax) "nor do we want to be too slow to respond"; Statistics Canada Oct 9 LFS −68k jobs, unemployment 6.5%; BlueGamma CORRA OIS Oct 13: hold 73%, hike 27%; Sep CPI due Oct 19 08:30 ET, inside the window. Kalshi prices the hike at 14/16 (below OIS), so the only priced-in edge is on the YES-hike side, which Anchor does not take.
- **Precedent writeback.** None this run: Guilfoyle's market is not yet settled and the Cook/BoC facts above concern open rungs. precedents.json written empty.

Generated by Claude (Anchor methodology) · 1 pick · 37 rejects · $124.96 allocated of $2,500.