# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Date: 2026-10-12
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-12-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-12 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · horizon 45 days (to 2026-11-26) · capital $2,500 · category focus: Politics · existing pick excluded: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO
0picks18logged rejects$0allocated (100% cash)865open markets in allowlist72inside horizon16passed liquidity floor

## 1. Summary

**Zero picks. Cash is the position this week.** The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 865 open markets) yields only 72 markets that expire or close inside the 45-day horizon, and only 20 of those clear the live 500-contract volume floor. After the mechanical cuts (ask ≤ 5¢ deep favorites, close-after-expiration placeholders, the Suez transit-count ladder, the live diesel pick) three real candidates reached Stage 2: the Trump-tries-to-fire-Cook November rung, the Guilfoyle-out-by-Nov-1 rung, and the Bank of Canada October 28 ladder. None survives the Anchor rules with a fillable edge:

- **Cook (NO at 87¢):** the thesis shape is right — a calendar-locked status quo, because Trump's own Oct 7 memorandum sets the removal hearing for Nov 5, after the rung expires, and the rung's window only starts at its Oct 8 issuance — but the book already prices exactly that (YES 13/16, Dec 1 rung at 37¢). No edge; thin-favorite band at best.
- **Guilfoyle (NO at 26¢):** the structural side is NO (precedent: scandal flow without a named successor rarely converts to a vacancy inside five weeks), but NO sits far below the 60¢ band floor and the leg moved 60¢ in three days. The YES side is a "sources say Trump is considering" thesis, which Anchor forbids.
- **Bank of Canada (hold 85¢ / hike 16¢):** the only side with an edge versus swaps is YES-hike, a macro-decision forecast that went 1-for-16 on the record. The NO-hike leg is priced richer than swaps and its cleanest loss is the current pass-through trend continuing.

Prior Anchor runs (Oct 1–9) reached the same verdict on Guilfoyle and the BoC ladder; the Cook rung is new this run (issued Oct 8) and is logged for the first time.

## 2. Method (Anchor)

Universe is `targets.json` only. Per market: live volume ≥ 500, spread ≤ 5¢, YES bid < 95¢ and ask > 5¢, no Mentions markets, no close_time more than 1h after expected_expiration_time, no expiry inside 7 days, no cumulative-count or level markets. Then: precedent retrieval → rules text and `rules_secondary` → one-sentence YES condition (reject if it is a number crossing a line) → primary-source news for a vehicle, the calendar, and already-happened → commit `prob_pre_market` → only then open the book and candles → blend. Anchor's four hard rules follow: NO is the default side (YES only for _already-happened_ or _process-in-motion_), no continuous-number theses, no continuation tails, no rules-reading edges. Entry band 60–84¢ full size, 85–89¢ half size, ≥90¢ and <60¢ rejected. One leg per cluster. Flat sizing: 10% of capital per pick (5% in the thin band), ≤ 1/3 of visible depth at the limit, ≥ 10% reserve.

Honesty note on ordering: the Stage-0 mechanical cuts require reading the live bid/ask, so the price is seen before diligence. The pre-market number on each card is the one committed before opening the orderbook depth and candlesticks, and both numbers are shown.

## 3. Stage 0 — Universe inside the horizon (live volume ≥ 100)

| Tier | Market | Archetype | YES bid/ask | Vol24h | OI | Expires | Closes | Stage-0 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? | confirmation/enact | 26/28 | 46,704 | 690,939 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-11-03 | close after expiration |
| T1 | `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T320` Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2 | legal-action | 13/14 | 10,000 | 1,600 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-20 | continuous-number market |
| T1 | `KXRETIREMM-26` Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | 2/2 | 8,786 | 1,388,083 | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band |
| T1 | `KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US Ambassador to Greece before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | 74/75 | 7,042 | 5,005 | 2027-01-08 | 2026-11-01 | → Stage 2 |
| T1 | `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | legal-action | 67/68 | 3,081 | 386,252 | 2026-11-03 | 2028-01-01 | close after expiration |
| T1 | `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T330` Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2 | legal-action | 8/9 | 1,220 | 1,220 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-20 | continuous-number market |
| T1 | `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | 3/4 | 709 | 534,153 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-01-01 | skip: YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| T1 | `KXIMPEACH-27-FEB01` Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? | legal-action | 10/11 | 644 | 910 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-02-01 | close after expiration |
| T1 | `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T320` Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 20 | legal-action | 6/7 | 501 | 1,121 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-13 | continuous-number market |
| T1 | `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T260` Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2 | legal-action | 88/89 | 500 | 500 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-20 | continuous-number market |
| T1 | `KXIMPEACH-27-JUL01` Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027? | legal-action | 38/41 | 437 | 1,580 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-07-01 | skip: volume24h < 500 |
| T1 | `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? | legal-action | 29/30 | 330 | 178,115 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-03-01 | skip: volume24h < 500 |
| T1 | `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01` Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | 0/1 | 160 | 45,888 | 2027-01-08 | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band |
| T1 | `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T290` Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 20 | legal-action | 47/48 | 150 | 259 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-13 | skip: volume24h < 500 |
| T1 | `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01` Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | 1/2 | 139 | 5,428 | 2028-01-01 | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band |
| T1 | `KXIMPEACH-27-OCT01` Will the President be impeached before Oct 1, 2027? | legal-action | 54/55 | 106 | 510 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-10-01 | skip: volume24h < 500 |
| T1 | `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T300` Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 20 | legal-action | 28/29 | 106 | 320 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-13 | skip: volume24h < 500 |
| T1 | `KXMARENTCONTROL-26` Will the Massachusetts Rent Control Initiative in Massachusetts pass? | confirmation/enact | 4/7 | 100 | 13,365 | 2026-11-03 | 2027-11-03 | close after expiration |
| T2 | `KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01` Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal | multi-news-other | 14/16 | 19,086 | 42,823 | 2027-01-01 | 2026-11-01 | → Stage 2 |
| T2 | `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 1/2 | 14,236 | 761,615 | 2027-01-01 | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band |
| T2 | `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | 2/3 | 630 | 48,124 | 2026-11-10 | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band |
| T2 | `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | 1/2 | 577 | 221,804 | 2027-04-01 | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band |
| T2 | `KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03` Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | 1/2 | 549 | 10,786 | 2027-01-01 | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band |
| T2 | `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 84/85 | 508 | 49,085 | 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-28 | → Stage 2 |
| T2 | `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | 14/16 | 487 | 31,827 | 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-28 | → Stage 2 |
| T2 | `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | 3/4 | 465 | 70,673 | 2029-01-01 | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band |
| T2 | `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on e | multi-news-other | 5/6 | 306 | 64,541 | 2026-11-10 | 2026-11-03 | already an active pick |

Markets with live volume below 100 (52 of the 72 in-horizon markets, mostly Alberta referendum questions, Montana ballot measures, Suez rungs, and IPO-date rungs) are mechanical skips and are not listed. Note the close-after-expiration rule removes the three largest Politics books in the window (CA wealth tax, two impeachment rungs): Kalshi's `expected_expiration_time` on those is an Election-Day placeholder a year before `close_time`.

## 4. Stage 2 — Diligence on the three live candidates

### KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01 — Will the President try to fire Lisa Cook before Nov 1, 2026?

REJECTside if forced: NO @ 87¢status-quo / calendarmulti-news-other

**YES condition.** For YES to pay, between the rung's issuance (Oct 8, 2026 19:43Z) and Nov 1, Trump must sign a document stating termination, direct an official to terminate Cook, publicly state he has fired or _decided to fire_ her, have the White House announce termination, send her written termination, or initiate formal legal proceedings for removal — resolved by Kalshi against White House/wire sources. A new action by a person: Anchor-shaped.

**Prob (YES):** 13% pre-market → 13% final. **Market:** YES 13/16, NO ask 87¢, spread 3¢; 19,086 contracts in 24h (specialist-dense), OI 42,823. Candles: rung opened 20¢ Oct 9, spiked to 40¢ on Oct 11 (10k contracts in one hour) and has bled to 13–14¢ today. Dec 1 rung 36/38 and Jan 1 rung 53/58 confirm the market reads the Nov 5 hearing as the gate. NO depth at 87¢: 496 contracts at 84¢ bid side, 7,175 at 83¢.

**Vehicle / calendar / already-happened.** The vehicle exists but lands after the deadline. The presidential memorandum dated Oct 7, 2026 (whitehouse.gov; CBS, NBC, CNBC Oct 9) creates a three-member committee of inquiry (Kevin Hassett, Keith Sonderling, Andrea Lucas) to report 'whether there is cause for Governor Cook's removal', with a closed, four-hour, transcribed hearing at the White House on **Nov 5, 2026**. The Supreme Court's June 29, 2026 ruling in _Trump v. Cook_ (5–4, Roberts) requires notice and a hearing before any removal is effective, which is why the process route exists. The TRYFIRE contract (Kalshi CFTC certification, July 18, 2025) defines the Underlying as actions 'after Issuance and before <date>', so the Oct 7 memo pre-dates this rung's window; the Sep 1 and Oct 1 rungs both settled NO on the same logic. Cook's counsel (Lowell, Eisen) say she 'welcomes the opportunity' to appear.

**Resolver profile and risk pricing.** Resolver is Kalshi reading its own six-item list. Deductions: 'decided to fire' rhetoric clause ~5 pts (prior rungs show a high bar, but Trump's phrasing is unpredictable); re-reading the cause committee as 'formal legal proceedings for removal' ~2 pts (unlikely given the rung was issued the day after the memo and has traded 13–40¢ on 46k contracts since). Total ~7 pts, inside tolerance.

**Cleanest tail.** The loss requires a new discrete event: a Truth Social post or interview line in Oct 8–31 that Kalshi reads as 'has decided to fire' (the clause Cook's lawyers themselves invoke), or a termination letter sent before the hearing Trump scheduled. Neither is a trend continuing — the shape passes. But the book already charges 13–16¢ for exactly those paths.

**Precedents consulted.** Store has no KXTRYFIRECOOK rows (two written this run from the settled Sep 1 and Oct 1 rungs). Analogues used: KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26JUL01 ('read exactly which office / which clause the contract names; a public statement of intent pins the contract'), KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 ('anonymous sourcing is not a resolution event; nothing short of the actual act pays').

**Verdict.** The calendar thesis is correct and the market owns it. Fair NO ≈ 87¢ against an 87¢ ask: zero edge, in the thin-favorite band where Anchor would only deploy at half size anyway. Pass, and revisit the Dec 1 rung only if the hearing date moves. Logged reject reason: _inside spread_.

### KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 — Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US Ambassador to Greece before Nov 1, 2026?

REJECTside if forced: NO @ 26¢status-quodeparture/ouster

**YES condition.** For YES to pay, Guilfoyle must have an actual departure date and _vacate_ the ambassadorship before Nov 1, 2026 (rules_secondary: resignation, removal, recall or expiry; leaves of absence and suspensions do not count), resolved by Kalshi against State/White House and wire reporting. A new action by a person: Anchor-shaped.

**Prob (YES):** 40% pre-market → 42% final. **Market:** YES 74/75, NO ask 26¢, spread 1¢; 7,042 contracts in 24h, OI 5,005. Candles: 14/18 on Oct 9 (prior Anchor log), 56–79¢ intraday today — fails the 48h move check by itself.

**Vehicle / calendar / already-happened.** No vehicle with a date. CNN (Oct 11) reports via one source that Trump is 'considering' firing her after the NBC report of a State Department OIG probe into an alleged $100,000 credit-card demand, PBS/House Democrats' records request, and the Daily Caller (Oct 10) luxury-travel account. No on-record White House or State decision, no successor named, no resignation; Rubio called her 'a strong ambassador' on Oct 8. 19 days remain and the rules need a completed vacancy, not an announcement.

**Resolver profile and risk pricing.** Resolver bar is strict and explicit (actual departure date and vacated role). Risk that an announced resignation 'effective Nov 15' is read as YES: ~3 pts. Risk of an announced-but-unvacated departure being read as YES against the secondary text: ~2 pts.

**Cleanest tail.** Loss requires a new discrete event — a recall decision and same-month exit. Shape passes. Price does not.

**Precedents consulted.** KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUL01 ('absent a named successor, price any single month near the base rate'), KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 ('reputational damage does not convert to a departure inside a ~5-week window; sell the spike'), KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB ('series settles on the actual last day in office').

**Verdict.** NO is the structural side but costs 26¢ — far below the 60¢ floor, the 40–59¢ NO lane beat the market by only 1 pt and sub-40¢ tails went 0-for-8. YES is a 'sources say he is considering' thesis, which is exactly the shape Anchor bans. Pass. Logged reject reason: _below band_.

### KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 / -H0 — Bank of Canada October 28, 2026 decision — hike 25bp (16¢) / hold (85¢)

REJECTside if forced: YES @ 16¢process-in-motion (shape only)scheduled-process

**YES condition.** For the hike leg to pay, the Bank of Canada must raise the overnight target by exactly 25bp at its fixed announcement on Oct 28, 2026, 09:45 ET, with the MPR; for the hold leg, it must leave 2.25% unchanged. A scheduled institutional decision: process-in-motion in shape, but the content of the decision is a macro forecast.

**Prob (YES):** 28% pre-market → 30% final. **Market:** H25 YES 14/16, NO 84–86¢; 487 contracts in 24h (below the floor by itself), OI 31,827. H0 YES 84/85, NO 15–16¢; 508 contracts in 24h, OI 49,085. Kalshi's hold leg at 85¢ is above the OIS-implied ~70% hold — the dislocation runs against the NO-hike/YES-hold side, not for it.

**Vehicle / calendar / already-happened.** Vehicle and calendar are fixed and public (Bank of Canada schedule: Oct 28 decision with MPR; Sep CPI due Oct 19 is the swing print; Macklem at IIF/IMF Oct 14–16). Market pricing: CORRA OIS 27–28% hike after the −68k September LFS (precedent row, Oct 9), ~40% in an Oct 12 mortgage-market wrap of unspecified vintage; Scotiabank, Oxford Economics and National call a hike, BMO/CIBC/RBC/TD hold through 2026. August CPI 3.0% headline, 2.4% ex-gasoline.

**Resolver profile and risk pricing.** Resolver risk is nil (precedent store: seven consecutive holds all paid the H0 leg same day). The risk is entirely in the forecast.

**Cleanest tail.** For NO-hike the cleanest loss is the energy pass-through already visible in ex-gasoline CPI continuing into the Oct 19 print and the Bank acting on its stated spillover trigger at an MPR meeting — the current trend continuing. Continuation tail: rejected on shape before price. For YES-hold the loss is the same event.

**Precedents consulted.** KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 ('hold-YES is still a forecast of the decision's content, which Anchor treats as a yes-side thesis'), -26SEP-H25 ('Kalshi NO on the hike rung priced ~8c richer than swaps, so fade-the-hike had negative edge'), -26JUN/-26JUL ladders (outer rungs structural zero; hold leg is yield, not a view).

**Verdict.** Only YES-hike has positive expectancy against swaps, and YES on a macro decision is 1-for-16 on the record. NO-hike is priced richer than swaps with a continuation tail; YES-hold is a yes-side thesis with no edge and is the cluster runner-up. Pass both legs; the C25/C26/H26 rungs are deep-favorite zeros. Logged reject reason: _yes-side thesis (H25) · below band + cluster runner-up (H0)_.

## 5. Reject log (all Stage-0 and Stage-2 rejects)

| Market | Archetype | Side | Price | P(YES) | Cluster | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01` Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors | multi-news-other | NO | 87¢ | 13% | cook-removal-attempt-nov1 | inside spread: P(qualifying 'try to fire' Oct 8-31) 13% pre-market -> 13% final vs YES 13/16 (NO ask 87c). Calendar: Trump's own Oct 7 memorandum (whitehouse.gov; CBS/NBC/CNBC Oct 9) routes removal through a 3-member committee (Hassett, Sonderling, Lucas) with the closed hearing set for Nov 5, four days AFTER this rung's deadline, and the TRYFIRE contract defines the Underlying as actions 'after Issuance' (rung issued Oct 8 19:43Z), so the memo itself is outside the window. Fair NO ~87c = the ask; thin-favorite band at best, 19k contracts traded today (specialist-dense). Residual YES paths are all new discrete events (a Truth Social 'I have decided to fire her' that Kalshi counts; a pre-hearing termination letter) and are worth the 13c the book charges. Resolver deduction ~5 pts for the 'decided to fire' clause. No edge. |
| `KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US Ambassador to Greece before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 26¢ | 40% | guilfoyle-greece-exit | below band: NO costs 26c (YES 74/75), far under the 60c floor. P(vacates by Oct 31) 40% pre-market -> 42% final: CNN (Oct 11) reports Trump 'considering' firing her off the OIG probe and $100k donor-bill reports (NBC, PBS); no on-record White House or State decision, no successor named, and rules_secondary requires an actual departure date AND vacating the role within the window. YES side is a 'sources say Trump is considering' thesis = yes-side thesis. Also fails the 48h move check: YES 14/18 on Oct 9 -> 74/75 today, 56-79c intraday range. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | YES | 16¢ | 30% | boc-oct28-decision | yes-side thesis: the only side with an edge is YES-hike (P(hike) 28% pre-market -> 30% final vs YES 14/16; CORRA OIS 27-28% post-LFS per the Sep precedent row, ~40% in the Oct 12 mortgage-market wrap; Scotia/Oxford/National call a hike, BMO/CIBC/RBC/TD hold), which is a macro-decision forecast (1-of-16 on the record). NO at 86c is priced richer than swaps and its cleanest loss (Sep CPI Oct 19 showing energy pass-through continuing into core, Bank acts at the Oct 28 MPR meeting) is the current trend continuing = continuation tail. Precedent 26SEP-H25 edge_notes flag exactly this: 'fade the hike rung had negative edge'. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 16¢ | 70% | boc-oct28-decision | below band + cluster runner-up: NO on the hold leg costs 16c (YES 84/85). The YES-hold at 85c is a yes-side thesis (forecasts the content of a scheduled decision, not a dated step that itself pays; precedent 26SEP-H0 lesson) with no edge vs OIS-implied hold ~70%. P(hold) 72% pre-market -> 70% final. Volume24h 507 barely clears the floor. |
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 74¢ | 28% | ca-prop-billionaire-tax | close after expiration: close_time 2027-11-03 is a year after expected_expiration_time 2026-11-03 (Stage-0 mechanical). Not researched; prob = market (no independent view). Would also be a poll-driven ballot-measure thesis. |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | legal-action | NO | 33¢ | 62% | trump-impeachment-2027 | close after expiration: expected_expiration_time 2026-11-03 vs close 2028-01-01 (Stage-0 mechanical). Not researched; prob is a structural status-quo lean only. |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-FEB01` Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO | 90¢ | 8% | trump-impeachment-2027 | close after expiration (exp 2026-11-03 vs close 2027-02-01); also deep-favorite band (NO 89-90c). Stage-0 mechanical. |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imp | multi-news-other | NO | 95¢ | 4% | diesel-export-ban | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT18-T320` Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 20 | legal-action | NO | 87¢ | 12% | suez-weekly-transits | continuous-number market: weekly transit count ladder (Stage-0 mechanical); also inside 7d for the Oct 11 week rungs. |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 2% | mcconnell-early-resign | deep-favorite band: YES 2/2 -> NO 98c; Stage-0 cut YES ask <= 5c. |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | NO | 99¢ | 1% | us-iran-deal-2026 | deep-favorite band: YES 1/2 -> NO 98-99c; Stage-0 cut YES ask <= 5c. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 3% | hegseth-exit | deep-favorite band: YES 3/4 -> NO 96-97c; volume24h 465 < 500. Precedent KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUL01: sitting defence chief mid-conflict is structural NO, but the book already prices it. |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 98¢ | 2% | miller-house-exit | deep-favorite band: YES 2/3 -> NO 97-98c; Stage-0 cut YES ask <= 5c. |
| `KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03` Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 99¢ | 1% | fetterman-party-switch | deep-favorite band: YES 1/2 -> NO 98-99c; Stage-0 cut YES ask <= 5c. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 99¢ | 1% | anthropic-ipo-announce | deep-favorite band: YES 1/2 -> NO 98-99c; Stage-0 cut YES ask <= 5c. |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01` Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 100¢ | 1% | patel-fbi-exit | deep-favorite band: YES 0/1; volume24h 159 < 500. Stage-0 mechanical. |
| `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01` Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 99¢ | 1% | netanyahu-arrest | deep-favorite band: YES 1/2; volume24h 139 < 500. Stage-0 mechanical. |
| `KXMARENTCONTROL-26` Will the Massachusetts Rent Control Initiative in Massachusetts pass? | confirmation/enact | NO | 96¢ | 5% | ma-rent-control-ballot | close after expiration (exp 2026-11-03 vs close 2027-11-03); volume24h 100 < 500; deep-favorite band. Stage-0 mechanical. |

## 6. Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions. Allocated $0 of $2,500; cash 100%; reserve requirement (≥ $250) trivially met. |  |  |  |  |  |

## 7. EV for the record

No deployed legs. For the scoreboard, the Stage-2 rejects carry the side and probability above: Cook NO 87¢ vs 87¢ fair (0¢ edge), Guilfoyle NO 26¢ vs 58¢ fair (+32¢ but below band and a 60¢ three-day move), BoC H25 YES 16¢ vs 30% fair (+14¢ but a yes-side macro thesis).

## 8. Clusters

| Cluster | Legs considered | Deployed |
|---|---|---|
| cook-removal-attempt-nov1 | KXTRYFIRECOOK-27JAN01-26NOV01 | none (inside spread) |
| guilfoyle-greece-exit | KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 | none (below band) |
| boc-oct28-decision | H25, H0 (C25/C26/H26 deep-favorite zeros) | none (yes-side thesis / runner-up) |
| ca-prop-billionaire-tax · trump-impeachment-2027 · others | Stage-0 mechanical rejects | none |

## 9. Risk profile

Portfolio risk is zero. The record's lesson behind this result: in a window where the only liquid Politics books are either sub-5¢ deep favorites, Election-Day placeholders, or a freshly issued rung that the crowd has already priced off the President's own calendar, the expected edge of forcing a leg is negative. Ending with 70–100% cash is the designed outcome for an efficient week.

## 10. Execution notes

- If the Nov 5 Cook hearing is moved into October, or if a Truth Social post is read as 'decided to fire', the Nov 1 rung reprices instantly; there is no pre-positioning edge on either side at current quotes.
- Guilfoyle: a recall announced with a same-week vacancy date would be the only thing that should move a NO holder; nothing to execute here.
- BoC: Sep CPI on Oct 19 (08:30 ET) is the one scheduled print before Oct 28; the H25/H0 legs will track CORRA OIS, which Kalshi has lagged by 5–10¢ all cycle.
- Three of the four largest in-horizon Politics books (CA wealth tax, impeachment rungs) are excluded only by the close-after-expiration rule; if the allowlist builder corrects placeholder `expected_expiration_time` values, they would need a fresh Stage-2 pass.

## 11. Precedent writeback

Two rows written to precedents.json for the settled KXTRYFIRECOOK Sep 1 and Oct 1 rungs: the TRYFIRE contract starts each rung's clock at its own issuance, and a cause-committee memorandum that only asks whether cause exists did not resolve a rung as a 'try to fire'.

## 12. Sources

- Kalshi public API: markets, orderbooks, candlesticks for the tickers above (Oct 12, 2026 ~16:40Z); TRYFIRE contract PDF (assets.kalshi.com/regulatory/product-certifications/TRYFIRE.pdf).
- CBS News, NBC News, CNBC, Washington Times (Oct 9, 2026) on the Oct 7 presidential memorandum and the Nov 5 hearing; Faegre Drinker / ABA Banking Journal on _Trump v. Cook_ (June 29, 2026).
- CNN (Oct 11, 2026) 'Trump considering firing Kimberly Guilfoyle'; NBC News on the State Department OIG probe; PBS NewsHour on the House Democrats' records request; Daily Caller (Oct 10, 2026).
- BNN Bloomberg (Sep 18, 2026) and an Oct 12, 2026 Canadian mortgage-market wrap on hike odds; Bank of Canada published schedule; resolution_precedents rows for KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP.

Generated 2026-10-12 · Anchor methodology · zero picks is a normal result.