# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-10-09

Date: 2026-10-09
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-09-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-09 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · capital $2,500 · horizon 45 days · focus category Politics · universe = Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, generated 2026-10-09T16:36Z)

0picks deployed29logged rejects$0capital allocated100%cash (reserve ≥10% met)2clusters reached Stage 2

## 1. Summary

Zero picks this run, by design. Of 860 open markets across the 120 allowlisted series, only 38 close inside the 45-day horizon and only seven of those cleared the mechanical cuts (volume, spread, 7-day floor, close/expiration mismatch, active picks). Two clusters reached full diligence: the Bank of Canada October 28 ladder and the Guilfoyle ambassadorship exit ladder. Both fail on price, not on shape. The BoC hike-rung NO at 86–88¢ is priced richer than the CORRA swap curve (OIS hike 27–28% after today's jobs report vs Kalshi 14–17¢), so fading the hike has negative edge; the Guilfoyle NO fills at 89¢ on a 491-contract book against a fair ~86¢. Cash is the position.

Nothing in this run is a "yes-side thesis" rescue: the one YES-eligible shape (BoC hold leg, process-in-motion on the Bank's published calendar) is also inside the spread at 81¢ vs a 78% final probability and has moved +12¢ in 48 hours.

## 2. Universe and funnel (Stage 0)

| Step | Markets | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Open markets in allowlisted series | 860 | Public API, status=open, all 120 series paginated; per-series counts match the targets file exactly |
| Closing inside 45 days | 38 | Most of the universe is year-end or 2027 dated; 22 of the 38 carry a placeholder `expected_expiration_time` months after `close_time`, so horizon was applied on close |
| Survive volume ≥500 / spread ≤5¢ / bid<95 / ask>5 / 7d / close≤exp+1h | 7 | BoC H0, BoC H25, Guilfoyle Nov 1, Diesel ban (active pick), Anthropic IPO Nov 1 (active pick), Tesla–SpaceX merger (ask 6¢, NO ≥94¢), Gallego (file vol 630, live vol 138 → cut) |
| Reached Stage 2 diligence | 3 markets / 2 clusters | BoC Oct (H25 NO primary, H0 YES runner-up), Guilfoyle Nov 1 NO |
| Picks | 0 | Both clusters rejected at Stage 3 (inside spread; continuation tail on BoC) |

Mechanical cuts of note: KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 and KXCAVOTERID-26 (21k and 5.9k daily volume) are cut under the close-after-expiration rule because Kalshi lists an election-morning expiration (Nov 3 15:00Z) against a Nov 2027 close. KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01 and -28-JAN01 are cut for the same reason. All are logged.

## 3. Picks

### No positions this run

Cash is a position. 100% of the $2,500 is held; the ≥10% reserve rule is trivially met. Expect 0–3 picks per Anchor run; zero is the correct output when the only NO-side candidates are priced above their swap-implied or base-rate fair value.

## 4. Stage-2 candidate cards (rejected)

### Bank of Canada, Oct 28, 2026 decision ladder scheduled-process Tier 2 REJECT: inside spread + continuation tail

**Primary leg:** `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` NO (hike of 25bp) · YES 14/17 · NO ask 86¢ (3 contracts), 87¢ (267), 88¢ (137) · vol24h 1,986 · OI 31,982 · closes 2026-10-28T13:29Z (19 days)

**Runner-up:** `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` YES (hold) · 80/81 · 5,024 contracts at 81¢ · vol24h 5,129 (specialist-dense) · OI 48,171

**YES condition (H25):** For YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must announce a 25bp increase in the overnight rate target at its 09:45 ET fixed announcement on Oct 28, 2026, resolved by Kalshi off the Bank's press release (store shows ~5h lag, no clarification needed).

**Mechanism:** status-quo (eighth consecutive hold). **Resolver:** Kalshi off the Bank's release; rules unambiguous ("Hike of 0bps" is the hold leg); resolver-risk deduction 0 pts.

**Vehicle / calendar / already-happened:** The decision is on the Bank's published calendar (Oct 28, with MPR). Before it: Macklem IIF fireside Oct 14 and IMF panel Oct 16 (Bangkok), Rogers Oct 15, Alexopoulos Oct 16, September CPI on Oct 19 (StatCan). Nothing has already happened.

**Evidence:** Sep 2 hold at 2.25% was the seventh straight. The Summary of Deliberations (published Sep 16) records no discussion of a hike and says there was "little evidence thus far that high gasoline prices were passing through to other goods and services", with core "around 2%". August CPI: headline 3.0%, ex-gasoline 2.4%, gasoline +22.8% y/y. Today's LFS: −68,300 jobs (second straight fall, −110k over two months), unemployment 6.5%, participation 64.8% (lowest since 1997 ex-2020), wages +2.3% y/y. Swaps cut October hike odds to 27% from 40% on the print (BlueGamma OIS: 72% hold / 28% hike, as of Oct 9). Big-six calls as of late August: National and Scotia hike in October; BMO, CIBC, RBC, TD hold through 2026. Brent $102–103. US–Canada trade talks collapsed Aug 21; 50% US tariffs on ~$20bn and dollar-for-dollar Canadian counter-tariffs from Sep 8.

**Probability:** P(hike) 18% pre-market → **20% final** (respecting a liquid OIS curve at 28% over Kalshi's 15%). P(hold) ≈ 78%, P(cut) ≈ 2%.

**Entry context:** Hike leg 8¢ (Sep 2) → 47¢ (Sep 25) → 25¢ (Oct 8) → 14¢ today. Hold leg 91¢ → 57¢ (Sep 23) → 81¢ today; +12¢ in 48h (fails the 48h move check for the YES leg).

**Why rejected:** (1) _Inside spread._ Fair NO ≈ 80¢ vs a fillable 87–88¢; the book is already more confident of a hold than the swap market, so the NO side carries negative edge even if the hold is the modal outcome. (2) _Continuation tail._ The single cleanest loss is Sep CPI (Oct 19) printing energy pass-through continuing into ex-gasoline/core and the Bank acting at the MPR meeting on its own stated spillover trigger — the current trend continuing, not a new discrete event. (3) H0 YES is a yes-side thesis (forecast of the decision's content) and is also inside the spread (81¢ vs 78%). Band: NO at 86–88¢ sits in the thin-favorite band (half size) at best.

**Precedents consulted:** KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0/H25 (seventh hold; hold leg paid ~5h20m after release; "market pricing of the next meeting's hike rung is driven by oil and governor rhetoric between meetings"), -26JUL-H25 ("narrative symmetry is not distributional symmetry"), -26JUN-H25 ("explicit two-sided risk language is empirically a hold tell"), -26JUL-C25 (cut rung is an option on US trade policy), KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0/H25 (buy the hold rung only when a hawkish repricing has knocked it well below par; here it has already recovered).

### Kimberly Guilfoyle out as US Ambassador to Greece before Nov 1, 2026 departure/ouster Tier 1 REJECT: inside spread

`KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` NO · YES 14/18 · NO ask 86¢ (3 contracts), 89¢ (200), 90¢ (70) · vol24h 579 · OI 491 (book opened Oct 8) · closes 2026-11-01T03:59Z (23 days). Ladder: Dec 1 rung 36/39, Jan 1 rung 48/50 (OI 8,060).

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, Guilfoyle must actually vacate the ambassadorship (resignation, removal, recall; not a leave of absence) with a departure date before Nov 1, 2026, per Kalshi's rules_secondary.

**Mechanism:** status-quo (no vehicle for a departure inside 23 days). **Resolver risk:** rules_secondary is explicit that temporary leave or recusal does not count; deduction 0 pts.

**Evidence:** WSJ (Sep 25) reported she asked a Trump donor to pay a $100,000 credit-card bill before her confirmation hearing in exchange for access; CBS (Oct 8) quoted the associate calling it "quid pro quo". Rep. Meeks letter Oct 1; House Oversight Democrats records request Oct 8. Rubio, in Athens Oct 8, declined to say whether he has confidence in her but called her "a strong ambassador here". Vance: "I don't love that". Trump has said nothing. No successor or chargé has been floated; no State Department IG action is public.

**Probability:** P(out by Oct 31) 12% pre-market → **14% final**. Tail: a recall or forced resignation is a new discrete event (acceptable shape).

**Why rejected:** Fair NO ≈ 86¢; the fillable entry for any size is 89¢ (3 contracts at 86¢), i.e. negative edge at the top of the thin-favorite band, on a two-day-old book with 491 open interest. Depth cap would be 67 contracts (~$60 at risk to win ~$7). The precedent record (KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUL01, KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01) says documentary scandal without an affirmative White House signal or a named successor prices near base rate, which is where the market already is.

**Precedents consulted:** KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUL01 ("absent a named successor, price any single month near the base rate"), KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (anonymous "matter of time" sourcing is not a resolution event), KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB (series settles on actual last day in office). No KXGUILFOYLEOUT rows in the store.

## 5. Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None. $0 deployed, $2,500 cash. |  |  |  |  |  |

## 6. EV for the record

| Candidate | Side | Fillable price | Model P(side wins) | EV / contract | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | NO | 87¢ | 80% | −7¢ | reject |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | YES | 81¢ | 78% | −3¢ | reject |
| KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01 | NO | 89¢ | 86% | −3¢ | reject |

## 7. Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs considered | Deployed leg |
|---|---|---|
| boc-oct-2026-decision | H25 NO, H0 YES, H26/C25/C26 NO | none |
| guilfoyle-greece-exit | Nov 1 NO (Dec 1 / Jan 1 rungs beyond horizon) | none |
| anthropic-ipo-timing | Oct 10/17/24, Nov 1 | two rungs already active picks |

## 8. Risk profile and execution notes

- Portfolio: 100% cash. No correlated exposure added to the two active NO positions (diesel export ban, Anthropic IPO timing).
- If the BoC hike leg re-widens toward swaps (YES ≥ 25¢, NO ≤ 75¢) before Oct 19 CPI, the NO side re-enters the core band; it would still have to clear the continuation-tail rule, which it currently fails. After Oct 19 the market is inside 7 days of expiration and out of scope.
- Guilfoyle Nov 1 only becomes interesting if a successor or chargé is named (then the Dec 1 / Jan 1 rungs become already-happened candidates) or if the Nov 1 YES bid drops below ~11¢ with depth.
- Reject vocabulary used: inside spread, continuation tail, yes-side thesis, deep-favorite band, inside 7d, continuous-number market, close after expiration, already an active pick, Stage-0 volume.

## 9. Reject log (29)

| Ticker | Archetype | Side | Price | P(YES) | Cluster | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` | scheduled-process | NO | 86¢ | 20% | boc-oct-2026-decision | inside spread + continuation tail: P(hike) 18% pre-market -> 20% final (CORRA OIS 27-28% after the Oct 9 LFS; Kalshi 14/17). NO costs 86c for 3 contracts, 87-88c for the next 404, vs fair NO ~80c: negative edge and the book is already below swaps. Cleanest loss is Sep CPI (Oct 19) showing energy pass-through continuing into core and the Bank acting at the Oct 28 MPR meeting = the current trend continuing. Thin-favorite band (85-89c) at best. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` | scheduled-process | YES | 81¢ | 78% | boc-oct-2026-decision | yes-side thesis + inside spread: a hold-YES forecasts the content of the decision, not a dated process step that itself pays; YES ask 81c vs 78% final (76% pre-market), OIS-implied hold 72%: no edge. Cluster runner-up to the H25 NO leg, itself rejected. Leg is +12c in 48h (69c Oct 3 -> 81c), 48h move check fails. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26` | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 1% | boc-oct-2026-decision | deep-favorite band: YES ask 2c -> NO at 98-100c; Stage-0 cut volume24h 124 < 500. Precedent 26JUL-H26: outer rungs of a fixed-date ladder are structural zero. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25` | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 2% | boc-oct-2026-decision | deep-favorite band: YES bid 0 / ask 24 (spread 24c), volume24h 0 < 500. Precedent 26JUL-C25: BoC cut rung is an option on US trade policy, not Ottawa; no live cut premium after the Sep 2 statement. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26` | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 0% | boc-oct-2026-decision | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1c; Stage-0 cut volume24h 0 < 500. |
| `KXGUILFOYLEOUT-26OCT-26NOV01` | departure/ouster | NO | 86¢ | 14% | guilfoyle-greece-exit | inside spread: P(out by Oct 31) 12% pre-market -> 14% final vs YES 14/18. NO is 86c for 3 contracts and 89c for the next 200 (OI 491, book opened Oct 8), so the fillable entry is 89c vs fair ~86c: negative edge at the top of the thin-favorite band. Trump silent, Rubio called her 'a strong ambassador' (Oct 8), no successor floated; precedent (KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUL01) says scandal without a named successor prices near base rate. Tail (a recall decision) is a new discrete event, so the shape is fine; the price is not. |
| `KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-NOV03` | departure/ouster | NO | 97¢ | 3% | gallego-senate-exit | Stage-0 cut: live volume24h 138 < 500 (file snapshot 630); YES ask 5c -> NO 95-97c, deep-favorite band. Gallego rolled out an economic plan Oct 6-7; no vehicle for departure. |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01` | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 2% | patel-fbi-exit | Stage-0 cut: volume24h 422 < 500; YES ask 3c -> NO 97-98c, deep-favorite band. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 3% | hegseth-dod-exit | Stage-0 cut: YES ask 4c <= 5c -> NO 96-97c, deep-favorite band. Precedent KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUL01: sitting defence chief mid-conflict is a structural NO but the 90c+ cohort showed no edge. |
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01` | corporate-event | NO | 96¢ | 3% | tesla-spacex-merger | deep-favorite band: YES 4/6 -> NO at 94-96c (>=90c). Specialist-dense book (vol24h 3471). |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` | scheduled-process | NO | 98¢ | 2% | us-iran-deal | Stage-0 cut: YES ask 3c <= 5c -> NO 97-98c, deep-favorite band. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` | corporate-event | NO | 99¢ | 1% | anthropic-ipo-timing | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS); also YES ask 2c -> deep-favorite band. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17` | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | anthropic-ipo-timing | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS); also volume24h 0 and YES ask 1c. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | anthropic-ipo-timing | Stage-0 cut: volume24h 310 < 500; YES ask 1c -> deep-favorite band; same cluster as two active picks. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10` | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 0% | anthropic-ipo-timing | inside 7d (closes in <1 day); volume24h 0; deep-favorite band. |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` | multi-news-other | NO | 96¢ | 4% | us-diesel-export-ban | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS); NO now 93-96c, deep-favorite band anyway. |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 1% | mcconnell-early-exit | Stage-0 cut: YES ask 3c <= 5c -> NO 97-98c, deep-favorite band. |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` | multi-news-other | NO | 98¢ | 2% | miller-house-exit | Stage-0 cut: YES ask 5c <= 5c -> NO 95-98c, deep-favorite band. |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` | legal-action | NO | 97¢ | 2% | trump-impeachment | Stage-0 cut: YES ask 4c <= 5c -> NO 96-97c, deep-favorite band; also close after expiration (close 2027-01-01 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03). |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` | legal-action | NO | 71¢ | — | trump-impeachment | close after expiration: close_time 2027-03-01 is ~4 months after expected_expiration 2026-11-03; also beyond the 45-day horizon by close. Not researched past Stage 0. |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` | legal-action | NO | 33¢ | — | trump-impeachment | close after expiration: close_time 2028-01-01 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03; beyond horizon by close. Not researched past Stage 0. |
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` | confirmation/enact | NO | 67¢ | — | ca-2026-ballot-measures | close after expiration: close_time 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03T15:00Z (election-day morning placeholder). Specialist-dense book (vol24h 21,310). Not researched past Stage 0. |
| `KXCAVOTERID-26` | confirmation/enact | NO | 75¢ | — | ca-2026-ballot-measures | close after expiration: close_time 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03T15:00Z. Not researched past Stage 0. |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T260` | legal-action | YES | 98¢ | — | suez-weekly-oct11 | inside 7d (expires Oct 13); YES bid 97 >= 95c; continuous-number market (weekly transit count). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T320` | legal-action | NO | 94¢ | — | suez-weekly-oct11 | inside 7d (expires Oct 13); continuous-number market (weekly transit count); deep-favorite band. |
| `KXNETANYAHUPARDON-26-NOV01` | legal-action | NO | 97¢ | — | netanyahu-pardon | Stage-0 cut: volume24h 156 < 500, spread 8c (YES 3/11); NO 89-97c. |
| `KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03` | departure/ouster | NO | 89¢ | — | schumer-leadership | Stage-0 cut: volume24h 9 < 500, spread 5c; Mentions-shaped ('publicly states'). Not researched. |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01` | multi-news-other | NO | 95¢ | — | trump-warsh-mentions | Mentions market ('will X say Y') -> skipped under the Anchor Mentions rule; also volume24h 1 < 500 and deep-favorite band. |
| `KXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-NOV03` | multi-news-other | NO | 98¢ | — | fetterman-switch | Stage-0 cut: volume24h 6 < 500; YES ask 3c -> deep-favorite band. |

## 10. Precedent writeback

Two rows written to `precedents.json` for the settled KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 and -H0 legs: the Sep 16 deliberations summary quotes verified this run, the August CPI and September LFS prints, and the observed Kalshi-vs-OIS divergence on the following ladder (Kalshi hike leg 14–17¢ vs OIS 28% on Oct 9).

## 11. Sources

- [Bank of Canada — Summary of Governing Council deliberations, Sep 2, 2026 (published Sep 16)](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/summary-of-governing-council-deliberations-fixed-announcement-date-of-september-2-2026/)
- [Bank of Canada — Sep 2, 2026 opening statement](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/opening-statement-2026-09-02/)
- [Bank of Canada — upcoming events (Oct 14–16 speeches; Oct 28 decision + MPR)](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events/)
- [Statistics Canada — Labour Force Survey, September 2026 (Oct 9)](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261009/dq261009a-eng.htm)
- [Statistics Canada — CPI, August 2026 (Sep 14)](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260914/dq260914a-eng.htm)
- [Statistics Canada — 2026 release schedule (Sep CPI on Oct 19)](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/release-diffusion/2026-eng.pdf)
- [BlueGamma — CORRA OIS-implied BoC probabilities (Oct 9: 72% hold / 28% hike)](https://www.bluegamma.io/central-banks/central-bank-interest-rate-forecasts/the-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-forecast)
- [Reuters via Investing.com — hike odds 27% from 40% after jobs data](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/canadian-dollar-slides-after-surprise-job-losses-rate-hike-bets-retreat-4941415)
- [Macklem Halifax speech, Sep 21, 2026](https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/09/bank-of-canadas-macklem-flags-risk-of-delaying-rate-hike-too-long/)
- [Big-six bank calls (National/Scotia hike; BMO/CIBC/RBC/TD hold)](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/326070/20260831/bank-canada-holds-wednesday-two-banks-forecast-october-hike-lock-wait.htm)
- [CNBC — US–Canada trade talks collapse, Aug 22, 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/22/us-canada-trade-talks-collapse-ushering-in-wave-of-new-tariffs.html)
- [House Foreign Affairs Democrats — Meeks letter on Guilfoyle, Oct 1, 2026](https://democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/2026/10/meeks-investigates-conduct-of-u-s-ambassador-to-greece-kimberly-guilfoyle)
- [PBS — House Oversight Democrats records request, Oct 8, 2026](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/exclusive-house-democrats-ask-kimberly-guilfoyle-for-records-related-to-alleged-pay-to-pay-scheme)
- [Washington Post — Rubio declines comment on Guilfoyle, Oct 8, 2026](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/10/08/greece-rubio-guilfoyle-wall-street-journal/2b234ca0-c2e1-11f1-8170-681419af1cc9_story.html)
- [CBS — Guilfoyle associate on $100K request](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kimberly-guilfoyle-greece-ambassador-eric-deters-texts-100000/)
- [CNN — Vance reaction, Oct 8, 2026](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/kimberly-guilfoyle-allegations-vance-reaction)
- [Semafor — Gallego economic plan, Oct 6, 2026](https://www.semafor.com/article/10/06/2026/gallego-rolls-out-ambitious-plan-to-insulate-workers-against-ai)

Data: Kalshi public API (markets, orderbooks, candlesticks via /series/{series}/markets/{ticker}/candlesticks), kalmari DB query API (/schema read first; resolution_precedents, signals, trading_markets).