# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-10-06

Date: 2026-10-06
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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strategy=Anchoraudit_version=anchorPolitics2026-10-06

# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Horizon 45 days · Capital $2,500 · Universe: `targets.json` generated 2026-10-06 16:37Z (120 series rows, 110 unique tickers) · Existing pick: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO

## 1. Summary

Picks0Logged rejects16Capital deployed$0Cash100%Stage-2 candidates1

**Zero picks. Cash is the position this week.** Of 824 open markets across the allowlisted series, only 30 close inside the 45-day window, and only two of those clear the mechanical cuts: the Bank of Canada Oct 28 hike leg and the diesel export ban (already live). The hike leg was researched in full and rejected under Anchor's **continuation-tail** rule: the one clean way a NO loses is the Sep CPI print on Oct 19 showing energy pass-through broadening and Governing Council acting on exactly the trigger it has written down. The book also offered no edge: 27% pre-market → 28% final against a 28/30 market that the precedent store shows tracks CORRA swaps within 2–3¢.

Everything else within the horizon is either a deep favorite (NO ≥95¢ on McConnell, Anthropic IPO dates, Iran deal, Hegseth), too thin (vol24 <500), or a market whose close sits months after its expected expiration (impeachment-by-date, California wealth tax). The liquid Politics event markets that Anchor is built for — admin departures, Fauci charge, Alito, Walz, Insurrection Act — all close in 2027 or later and are outside this run's horizon; they are listed in §7 for the next run with a longer horizon.

## 2. Universe funnel (Stage 0)

| Step | Count |
|---|---|
| Allowlisted series in targets.json | 112 |
| Open markets fetched across those series | 824 |
| Closing within 45 days (by Nov 20, 2026) | 30 |
| …and expiring ≥7 days out, vol24 ≥500, spread ≤5¢, YES ask >5¢, YES bid <95¢ | 2 |
| Not already an active pick | 1 |
| Survived Stage 3 (Anchor hard rules) | 0 |

Tier order worked: Tier 1 (departure/ouster, legal-action, confirmation/enact) had no within-horizon market surviving the cuts; Tier 2 scheduled-process supplied the single candidate. No Mentions markets, no continuous-number markets reached Stage 2. Live numbers from the public API (`*_fp`/`*_dollars` fields) at ~17:00Z, Oct 6.

## 3. Picks

**None.** 0–3 picks per run is the expected range for Anchor; zero is a correct result on a slate with one Stage-2 candidate.

## 4. Candidate deep-dive — KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 (rejected)

scheduled-processmechanism: status-quoside considered: NOcluster: boc-oct28-decision

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, the Bank of Canada's Governing Council must raise the overnight-rate target by exactly 25bp at its Oct 28, 2026 fixed announcement date (09:45 ET), resolved by the Bank's press release. This is a new action by an institution on a dated step → Anchor-shaped; the NO side is the status-quo (eighth consecutive hold).

### Rules and resolver

Rules primary: _“If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.”_ No `rules_secondary`. Resolver = Kalshi on the BoC press release; 12 precedent rows in this series show the ladder settling mechanically on the printed rate within the 1800s timer, zero definitional disputes. Resolver-risk deduction: 0 pts. Early close on event; expected expiration = close (13:29Z Oct 28), 22 days out.

### Precedents consulted

- **26JUN-H25 / 26JUL-H25 (NO), 26JUN-H0 / 26JUL-H0 (YES):** “When a bank explicitly names both a cut trigger and a hike trigger in the same paragraph, it is telling you it intends to do neither yet.” Both ladders resolved on the hold with consensus matching print.
- **26SEP-H25 (NO), 26SEP-H0 (YES), verified Oct 5 by a prior run:** “Kalshi tracked swaps within 2–3¢: the ladder offers no edge against OIS, and the NO-on-hike loss tail is pass-through continuing … a continuation tail under Anchor.” Forecasters split: UBS, Manulife, Oxford, Scotiabank hike; RBC, TD hold.
- **KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25 (NO):** a 11%→38% hawkish repricing into a live FOMC still resolved NO — but the store itself flags this as a poor analogue here because the Fed has since actually hiked (Sep 16) and the Governor has pre-committed language.

### Primary-source diligence (Stage 2)

- **Vehicle:** Yes — Oct 28 Interest Rate Announcement + Monetary Policy Report on the Bank's official [upcoming-events calendar](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events/). The hike needs nothing beyond that scheduled meeting.
- **Calendar before the decision:** LFS Oct 9 (StatCan); Macklem IIF fireside chat Oct 14 and IMF panel Oct 16 (Bangkok); Sep CPI Oct 19 (StatCan release schedule) and the Business Outlook Survey / Consumer Expectations survey Oct 19 11:30 ET. Two live Governor appearances and the key print all land inside the window.
- **Sep 2 press release (verified):** “CPI inflation has been hovering around 3% … mainly because of persistently higher gasoline prices”; “excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% and measures of core inflation remained close to 2% in July”; “upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased”; “The longer that high oil prices and elevated refinery margins persist, the greater the risk of spillover to the prices of other goods and services”; Council “is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.”
- **Sep 21 Halifax speech:** “We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent.” (Bank of Canada; reported by CBC, Yahoo Finance Canada.)
- **Data since:** Aug CPI (Sep 14) headline 3.0%, ex-gasoline 2.4% (from 2.2%), trim 1.9 / median 2.0 / common 2.6; Aug LFS (Sep 4) employment −41.7k vs +15k expected, UE 6.4%, wages +2.0% y/y; Q2 GDP +3.3% annualized. Brent $100.84 on Oct 6, +3.8% over the month (Trading Economics).
- **Already happened?** No. Nothing has been decided; the Bank has not pre-announced.

### Probability

**Pre-market: 27% YES.** Seven straight holds, core at target, a weakening labour market and 2.0% wage growth argue the spillover trigger is not yet met; against that, headline at 3% for months, ex-gas drifting up, oil >$100, a Fed that has moved, and a Governor explicitly refusing to be “too slow”. **Final: 28% YES** after seeing the 28/30 book and swaps (CORRA OIS ~26% hike on Oct 2 at +7bp; bankofcanadaodds.com 43% hike at 07:54 Oct 6; the raw OIS numbers overstate hike odds by roughly the 4bp CORRA–policy spread per David Watt's Sep 22 note). Edge for NO at 72¢: ≈0–2¢ against a 2¢ spread → **inside the no-trade band**.

### Entry context recorded

| YES bid/ask | NO bid/ask | Last | vol24 | OI | NO depth ≤72¢ (visible) | 48h move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 / 30 | 70 / 72 | 31 | 1,203 | 33,921 | ≈2,180 contracts at 42–70¢ on the NO ladder; 113 YES at 28 bid | YES 34¢ (Oct 4) → 30¢: drifting toward the NO side, not a chase |

| Date | H25 YES price | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | 7¢ | Sep 2 hold, seventh straight |
| Sep 11 | 22¢ | Repricing begins |
| Sep 14 | 35¢ | Aug CPI: headline 3.0%, ex-gas 2.4% |
| Sep 16 | 36–42¢ | Fed hikes 25bp |
| Sep 21–24 | 43–46¢ | Macklem Halifax: 'nor do we want to be too slow' |
| Oct 1–2 | 35→31¢ | OIS drifts back toward hold |
| Oct 4 | 34¢ |  |
| Oct 5 | 30¢ | Prior run verified: OIS ~31% hike |
| Oct 6 | 28/30¢ | This run; NO 70/72; v24 1,203; OI 33,921 |

### Stage 3 verdict

**REJECT — continuation tail.** Cleanest way the NO loses: the Oct 19 Sep-CPI shows ex-gasoline/core moving up again with Brent still above $100, the BOS the same day shows firms passing costs through, and Council acts on the spillover trigger it wrote on Sep 2 and Macklem restated on Sep 21. That is “pass-through keeps going” — the current trend continuing, not a new discrete event. Anchor forbids the pick regardless of how attractive the fade of the Sep 11–24 repricing looks; the record's worst live loss had this exact shape. Secondary reject: inside spread (≤2¢ edge vs 2¢ spread; market tracks OIS). The hold leg (H0, YES at 73¢) would be a legitimate _process-in-motion_ YES shape but fails the vol24 ≥500 floor (289) and carries the identical tail.

## 5. Rejected (logged)

| Ticker | Market | Archetype | Side | Price | P(YES) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` | Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 72¢ | 28% | continuation tail: the single cleanest loss is Sep CPI (Oct 19) printing further ex-gasoline/core pass-through (2.2%→2.4% Jul→Aug already) with Brent still >$100 and Governing Council acting on its own stated spillover trigger — that is 'pass-through keeps going', not a new discrete event. Secondary: inside spread — 27% pre-market → 28% final vs a 28/30 book; Kalshi tracks CORRA OIS within 2–3¢ (precedent 26SEP-H25). |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` | Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | YES | 73¢ | 72% | vol24<500 (289 live) — Stage-0 mechanical cut; same cluster and the same continuation tail as the H25 leg (would be process-in-motion YES at 73¢ otherwise). |
| `KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26` | Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United Stat | multi-news-other | NO | 96¢ | 5% | already an active pick (also deep-favorite band: NO ask 96¢). |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` | Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? — Before election day 20 | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 2% | deep-favorite band — YES ask 2.2¢ fails Stage-0 (YES ask ≤5¢); NO costs ≥97¢. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Nov 1, 2026 | corporate-event | NO | 96¢ | 3% | deep-favorite band — YES ask 5¢ fails Stage-0; NO costs 96¢. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 24, 2026 | corporate-event | NO | 98¢ | 2% | deep-favorite band — YES ask 3¢ fails Stage-0. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10` | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 10, 2026 | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 1% | deep-favorite band — YES ask 1¢ fails Stage-0. |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` | Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before No | scheduled-process | NO | 98¢ | 2% | deep-favorite band — YES ask 3¢ fails Stage-0. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` | Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? — | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 3% | deep-favorite band — YES ask 4¢ fails Stage-0; v24 533. |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` | Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? — Before Mar 1, 20 | legal-action | NO | 71¢ | 25% | close after expiration — close_time 2027-03-01 is ~4 months after expected_expiration 2026-11-03; also beyond the 45-day horizon. |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` | Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 20 | legal-action | NO | 36¢ | 60% | close after expiration — close_time 2028-01-01 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03; beyond horizon. |
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` | Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pa | confirmation/enact | NO | 69¢ | 30% | close after expiration — close_time 2027-11-03 vs expected_expiration 2026-11-03 (election-day measure); beyond horizon. |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01` | Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026? — Before | multi-news-other | NO | 95¢ | 6% | vol24<500 (105 live); also deep-favorite band (NO ask 95¢). Mentions-adjacent ('publicly criticize') — would be skipped regardless. |
| `KXLEAVEDUNN` | Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | departure/ouster | NO | 94¢ | 7% | vol24<500 (100 live); deep-favorite band. |
| `KXNETANYAHUPARDON-26-NOV01` | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1 | legal-action | NO | 95¢ | 7% | vol24<500 (182 live); spread 6.3¢ > 5¢; deep-favorite band. |
| `KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03` | Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including ind | departure/ouster | NO | 90¢ | 12% | vol24<500 (0 live); spread 8¢ > 5¢; deep-favorite band. |

## 6. Portfolio, sizing and risk

| Position | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max loss | EV (record) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| _No positions. Cash $2,500 (100%). Reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially met._ |  |  |  |  |  |  |

**Cluster table:** boc-oct28-decision (2 legs, both rejected) · anthropic-ipo-timing (3 legs, deep-favorite) · trump-impeachment (2 legs, close-after-expiration). No cluster deployed.

**Risk profile:** none. **Execution notes:** nothing to execute. If the operator wants exposure to the Oct 28 hold anyway, the existing live pick list is the only thing to maintain; Anchor explicitly does not take the BoC leg.

## 7. Outside this run's horizon (not candidates)

Liquid allowlisted markets excluded only by the 45-day horizon. Shown for the next run; no probabilities formed.

| Ticker | Market | Archetype | YES bid/ask | vol24 | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AFAU` | Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, | legal-action | 21/24 | 20,356 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20` | Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? | legal-action | 68/69 | 15,279 | 2029-01-20 |
| `KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01-TWAL-27JAN01` | Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issu | departure/ouster | 5/7 | 14,261 | 2027-01-02 |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` | Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? | legal-action | 29/31 | 11,062 | 2027-03-01 |
| `KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01` | Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court | departure/ouster | 11/12 | 9,205 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXALITOOUT-27JAN01` | Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before 2027? | departure/ouster | 4/6 | 8,039 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXGREENTERRITORY-29` | Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before | corporate-event | 22/23 | 7,270 | 2029-01-21 |
| `KXINSURRECTION-29-27` | Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency | multi-news-other | 15/17 | 6,661 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXTRUMPRESIGN` | Will President Trump resign before his term is up? | departure/ouster | 18/19 | 5,292 | 2029-01-21 |
| `KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01` | Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027? | multi-news-other | 5/5 | 4,903 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27` | Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | 13/14 | 4,116 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXSUPERBOWLWHITEHOUSE-26DEC31` | Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship | multi-news-other | 6/8 | 4,006 | 2026-12-31 |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01` | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | 65/66 | 3,982 | 2026-12-01 |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-27-JAN` | Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Jan 2027? | multi-news-other | 29/32 | 3,256 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG` | Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027 | departure/ouster | 23/24 | 3,151 | 2027-01-01 |
| `KXLOCALLAW-ALSNAP-27JUL01` | Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again? | confirmation/enact | 43/45 | 3,060 | 2027-07-01 |
| `KXINTERSTELLAR-26` | Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026? | multi-news-other | 19/20 | 2,923 | 2026-12-31 |
| `KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-NOACQ` | Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump' | corporate-event | 91/92 | 2,450 | 2029-01-22 |
| `KXLOCALLAW-WYDAA-27APR01` | Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority? | confirmation/enact | 33/35 | 2,299 | 2027-04-01 |
| `KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANDU` | Will any part of the United States federal government take a | corporate-event | 25/26 | 2,118 | 2027-01-01 |

## 8. Data and method notes

- Universe strictly from `targets.json`; no category scan. Query API `/schema` read first; precedent store has 162 rows (85 Hormuz weekly, 12 BoC, 10 Fed, rest sparse).
- Public API bare-cent fields are null; all prices from `*_dollars`/`*_fp`. Price history from the series candlesticks endpoint (706 hourly candles since Sep 6).
- Side rule applied: no YES thesis reached Stage 3. Continuation-tail rule applied once (BoC). No rules-reading edges or continuous-number theses reached Stage 2.
- Precedent writeback: one row for the settled KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 leg with the verified Sep 2 press-release language and the Oct 6 pricing snapshot of the next rung.

Sources: Bank of Canada upcoming events and Sep 2 press release (bankofcanada.ca); Macklem Halifax speech Sep 21 (bankofcanada.ca; CBC; Yahoo Finance Canada); StatCan release schedule; Trading Economics Brent; bankofcanadaodds.com; David Watt Substack Sep 22; Kalshi public API; resolution_precedents.