# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-10-05

Date: 2026-10-05
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-10-05-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Report date 2026-10-05 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · category focus: Politics · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500 · universe: targets.json (111 allowlisted series, generated 2026-10-05 16:37 UTC)
0picks40logged rejects$0allocated (0%)$2,500cash held (100%)1market reached Stage 2

## 1. Summary

**No deployable pick this run; 100% cash.** Zero is the expected Anchor result in a week like this. Of 829 open markets across the 111 allowlisted series, only 40 close inside the 45-day horizon, and all but one of those fail a mechanical cut: 20 are deep-favorite NO legs at 95¢ or better (17 liquid, plus the three outer Bank of Canada rungs with no volume), 10 are the Suez weekly transit-count ladder (continuous number, inside 7 days), one is a Mentions market (Trump criticizing Warsh), one is the live diesel-export-ban pick, six are illiquid, and the Bank of Canada hold leg misses the volume floor by 47 contracts.

The single Stage-2 candidate was **NO on a Bank of Canada 25 bp hike at the Oct 28 meeting** (`KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25`, YES 28/32, NO ask 72¢, in the core band). Full diligence put the hike at **28% pre-market → 30% final**, which is exactly where CORRA overnight-index swaps sit (31% hike / 69% hold, BlueGamma, Oct 5). Fair NO is 69–70¢ against a 72¢ ask: negative edge after fees. Independently, the cleanest loss is the current gasoline pass-through continuing into the Sep CPI print on Oct 19 and the Bank acting on its stated spillover trigger at an MPR meeting, which is a continuation tail. Two hard rules fail, so the leg is logged as a reject with the full workup below.

## 2. Universe and Stage-0 cuts

| Step | Markets | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Open markets in allowlisted series (live API) | 829 | 111 unique series after de-duplicating the category rows |
| Closing within 45 days (by 2026-11-19) | 40 | everything else (Trump-out, Leaders-out, impeach, Admin-leave, ballot measures) closes Dec 31 2026 or later |
| YES ask ≤ 5¢ (deep-favorite NO) | 20 | status-quo departures, IPO date rungs, Iran deal, Netanyahu arrest, Tesla–SpaceX merger; includes the 3 outer BoC rungs |
| Continuous-number / inside 7d (Suez weekly) | 10 | transit-call count ladder, expiring Oct 6 and Oct 13 |
| Mentions market | 1 | Trump publicly criticizes Warsh |
| Already an active pick | 1 | KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 |
| volume24h < 500 with a live quote | 7 | BoC H0 (453), judge count, Schumer, Dunn, Martin-DNC, Netanyahu pardon, Powell-governor |
| **Reached Stage 2** | **1** | KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 |

Tier 1 was worked first; every Tier-1 market inside the horizon is a ≥95¢ NO or illiquid. Tier 2 produced the BoC ladder. No Tier-3 or outside-universe market was researched.

## 3. Pick cards

None. No market survived Stage 3. Cash is the position.

## 4. Stage-2 workup: KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 (rejected)

scheduled-processTier 2mechanism considered: status-quoside: NOcluster: boc-oct28-decision

### Will the Bank of Canada hike 25 bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must announce a 25 bp increase in the target for the overnight rate at the Oct 28, 2026 fixed announcement date, resolved by the Bank's press release (rules_primary; rules_secondary empty; closes 13:29 UTC Oct 28, one minute before the 09:45 ET release). A new action by an institution: Anchor-shaped.

**Prob: 28% pre-market → 30% final.** Market YES 28/32 (mid 30). CORRA OIS 31% hike / 69% hold as of Oct 5 (BlueGamma). The book tracks swaps.

**Resolver profile.** Kalshi resolves on the BoC decision text; the 12 stored precedents (Jun, Jul, Sep 2026 ladders) all resolved cleanly on the announced target rate with no definitional dispute. Resolver-risk deduction: 0 pts.

**Vehicle and calendar (primary sources).** Oct 28 09:45 ET is on the Bank's published schedule and is an MPR meeting (bankofcanada.ca upcoming events). Before it: Labour Force Survey Oct 9, September CPI and the Business Outlook Survey on Oct 19 (Statistics Canada schedule; BoC calendar). No further BoC speeches are scheduled before the decision. Summary of deliberations for Oct 28 publishes Nov 10.

**Evidence for hold (NO).** Sep 2 press release: core measures "close to 2% in July", ex-gasoline 2.2%. Sep 16 deliberations contain no mention of raising the rate; the trigger is written as "if higher energy prices did spill over into other components of the CPI … it could require a monetary policy response". Aug CPI (Sep 14): trim 1.9%, median 2.0%, common 2.6%, ex-gas 2.4%, headline 3.0%. Aug LFS (Sep 4): employment −42k, unemployment 6.4%, wages +2.0% y/y, the slowest since 2017. Q3 Business Outlook Survey: near-term inflation expectations eased to 3%, 2–5 year at 2.5%. RBC and TD call hold through 2026; Watt (Sep 22) argues the raw CORRA-futures odds overstate the hike by ~15 pts.

**Evidence for hike (YES).** Macklem, Halifax, Sep 21: "nor do we want to be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent"; "if oil prices stay near $100 … we would expect inflation to edge up". Deliberations: "the longer they were high, the more likely they would be passed through". Brent $101–102 on Oct 5 with Hormuz disruption ongoing. Q2 GDP +3.3% annualized, above the July MPR. Fed hiked Sep 16. UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank moved to an October hike call (Oct 1–2); UBS expects Sep CPI 3.3%.

**Entry context (after the probability was committed).** Candles: YES 7¢ on Sep 2 → 22¢ Sep 11 → 42¢ Sep 16 (Fed) → 46/47 Sep 24 → 38 Sep 30 → 30/32 Oct 2–5. 48h move: −3¢, not a chase. Book: NO buyer pays 72¢ against 65 resting YES bids at 28¢, then 68 at 25¢ (depth cap would be 21 contracts). vol24h 1,525; OI 33,698.

**Cleanest loss.** Oil stays ~$100, the Sep CPI on Oct 19 shows ex-gasoline and core drifting higher, and Governing Council acts on its own spillover language at the MPR meeting. That is the current pass-through continuing, not a new discrete event: a **continuation tail**, exactly as the stored 26SEP-H0 lesson warns.

**Verdict: REJECT — inside spread (fair NO 69–70¢ vs 72¢ ask, zero edge after fees) and continuation tail.** Conviction would have been LOW. Re-examine only after Oct 19 if core/ex-gasoline prints flat and the leg still trades above 25¢ YES; even then the OIS anchor must be beaten by more than fees.

**Precedents consulted:** KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H25 ("two-sided guidance keeps both middle rungs alive in the narrative while neither gets priced"), 26JUN-H25 ("explicit two-sided risk language is empirically a hold tell"), 26SEP-H25 ("price the hike leg off the core/ex-gasoline prints released the week before the meeting, not off the gasoline-driven headline"), 26SEP-H0 ("trend-driven tail makes NO-on-hike a continuation-tail reject under Anchor even when the fade looks attractive").

## 5. Reject log (every in-horizon market)

| Ticker | Market | Archetype | Side | Price | P(YES) | vol24h | Expires | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 72¢ | 30% | 1,525 | 2026-10-28 | inside spread + continuation tail: P(hike) 28% pre-market → 30% final vs NO ask 72¢ (YES 28/32); CORRA OIS implies 31% hike / 69% hold (BlueGamma, Oct 5), so the book tracks swaps and fair NO is 69–70¢ — negative edge after fees. Cleanest loss is the current pass-through continuing (ex-gasoline CPI 2.2%→2.4% in Aug, Brent ~$101, Sep CPI Oct 19 printing hot) into the Bank acting on its stated spillover trigger at the Oct 28 MPR meeting — a continuation tail, as the precedent store (26SEP-H0 lesson) already flags. NO depth at 72¢ is 65 contracts, which would cap size at 21 anyway. |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | YES | 73¢ | 70% | 453 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h 453 < 500 (Stage-0); also yes-side thesis: a hold-YES forecasts the content of the decision rather than a dated step that itself pays; cluster runner-up to the H25 NO leg, itself rejected; YES 70/73 equals the swaps-implied 69% hold, no edge |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26 | Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0); outer/cut rung of a fixed-date ladder is a structural zero per precedent (26JUL-H26, 26JUL-C25); deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26 | Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0); outer/cut rung of a fixed-date ladder is a structural zero per precedent (26JUL-H26, 26JUL-C25); deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25 | Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2026-10-28 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0); outer/cut rung of a fixed-date ladder is a structural zero per precedent (26JUL-H26, 26JUL-C25); deep-favorite band |
| KXRETIREMM-26 | Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 3% | 9,994 | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXRETIREPELOSI-26 | Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? | departure/ouster | NO | 99¢ | 2% | 1,269 | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 2¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT04-T280 | Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 28, 2026 to O… | legal-action | NO | 39¢ | — | 1,007 | 2026-10-06 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-06) |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01 | Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 97¢ | 4% | 847 | 2027-01-08 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT04-T270 | Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 28, 2026 to O… | legal-action | NO | 21¢ | — | 362 | 2026-10-06 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-06); volume24h 362 < 500 |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26OCT-0 | Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026? | confirmation/enact | YES | 1¢ | 99% | 203 | 2026-11-01 | volume24h 203 < 500 (Stage-0); YES ask 1¢ — deep-favorite band; continuous-count series |
| KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 98¢ | 3% | 100 | 2028-01-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-NOV03 | Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Nov 3, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 97¢ | 4% | 55 | 2027-01-08 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT04-T290 | Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 28, 2026 to O… | legal-action | NO | 63¢ | — | 54 | 2026-10-06 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-06); volume24h 54 < 500 |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01 | Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System… | departure/ouster | NO | 99¢ | 3% | 48 | 2027-01-01 | volume24h 48 < 500 (Stage-0 liquidity floor); deep-favorite band (NO 99¢) |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T260 | Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oc… | legal-action | NO | 12¢ | — | 12 | 2026-10-13 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-13); volume24h 12 < 500 |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT04-T300 | Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 28, 2026 to O… | legal-action | NO | 78¢ | — | 12 | 2026-10-06 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-06); volume24h 12 < 500 |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT04-T260 | Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 28, 2026 to O… | legal-action | NO | 5¢ | — | 1 | 2026-10-06 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-06); volume24h 1 < 500 |
| KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03 | Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who cau… | departure/ouster | NO | 89¢ | 14% | 0 | 2027-01-08 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0 liquidity floor); spread 7¢ > 5¢ |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T300 | Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oc… | legal-action | NO | 84¢ | — | 0 | 2026-10-13 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-13); volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T290 | Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oc… | legal-action | NO | 66¢ | — | 0 | 2026-10-13 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-13); volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T280 | Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oc… | legal-action | NO | 42¢ | — | 0 | 2026-10-13 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-13); volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXSUEZWEEKLY-26OCT11-T270 | Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 5, 2026 to Oc… | legal-action | NO | 17¢ | — | 0 | 2026-10-13 | continuous-number market: weekly transit-call count ladder; also inside 7d (expires 2026-10-13); volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXLEAVEDUNN | Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | departure/ouster | NO | 96¢ | 7% | 0 | 2026-11-03 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0 liquidity floor); deep-favorite band (NO 96¢) |
| KXNETANYAHUPARDON-26-NOV01 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026? | legal-action | NO | 99¢ | 4% | 0 | 2027-01-15 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0 liquidity floor); spread 6¢ > 5¢; deep-favorite band (NO 99¢) |
| KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01 | Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 98¢ | 3% | 0 | 2029-01-08 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26NOV01 | Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO | 97¢ | 6% | 0 | 2027-01-08 | volume24h 0 < 500 (Stage-0 liquidity floor); spread 6¢ > 5¢; deep-favorite band (NO 97¢) |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV | Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | NO | 98¢ | 3% | 15,943 | 2027-01-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01 | Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 95¢ | 6% | 6,321 | 2027-01-01 | Mentions market ("will Trump publicly criticize"): skipped by rule regardless of category; NO at 95¢ is deep-favorite band anyway |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 97¢ | 4% | 2,529 | 2027-04-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01 | Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 4% | 1,174 | 2029-01-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 5¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 | Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire Spac… | corporate-event | NO | 97¢ | 4% | 122 | 2027-06-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 5¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 | Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a … | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 4% | 13 | 2026-11-10 | already an active pick (NO, Sep 28 Anchor run) |
| KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03 | Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO | 98¢ | 3% | 1 | 2026-11-10 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 99¢ | 3% | 0 | 2027-04-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2027-04-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2027-04-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01 | When will OpenAI IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2027-06-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXIPOSTARLINK-26NOV01 | When will Starlink IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 1% | 0 | 2027-06-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |
| KXIPOANDURIL-26NOV01 | When will Anduril IPO? | corporate-event | NO | 100¢ | 4% | 0 | 2027-06-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO ≥ 95¢), no edge over the market in the ≥90¢ cohort |

## 6. Portfolio tables

### Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions. Reserve requirement (≥10% = $250) trivially met; cash $2,500. |  |  |  |  |  |

### EV for the record

| Ticker | Side | Price | Model P(YES) | Edge | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | NO | 72¢ | 30% | −2¢ | −2.8% |

### Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs considered | Deployed |
|---|---|---|
| boc-oct28-decision | H25 NO (best leg), H0 YES, H26 / C25 / C26 NO | none |
| suez-weekly-transits | 10 count rungs | none (continuous-number) |
| trump-warsh-criticism | 1 | none (Mentions) |
| status-quo deep favorites (18 clusters) | 23 legs at NO ≥ 95¢ | none (deep-favorite band) |

### Risk profile

- Capital at risk: $0. Max drawdown: $0.
- Existing live pick KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO is unchanged and was not re-underwritten here.

### Execution notes

- Nothing to execute.
- If the BoC hike leg is revisited after Oct 19, the actionable depth at the time of this audit was 65 contracts at 72¢ NO; any size above ~20 contracts walks the book to 75¢.

## 7. Method notes

- Universe is exactly `targets.json`; markets outside it were not researched. Live quotes and volume from the Kalshi public API (`*_dollars` / `*_fp` fields); price history from the candlesticks endpoint at 60-minute intervals; rules text from the query API and `rules_secondary` from the live market.
- Probability was committed (28%) after reading rules, precedents and primary sources and before opening candlesticks or depth; the top-of-book quote was unavoidably visible during Stage-0 screening.
- One precedent row was written to `precedents.json` for the settled Sep 2 hike leg, recording the deliberations language and the Oct leg's price path, all verified this run.

Sources: bankofcanada.ca (Sep 2 press release; Sep 16 summary of deliberations; Sep 21 Macklem speech; Oct 1 Rogers speech; upcoming-events calendar), statcan.gc.ca (Aug CPI, Aug LFS, release schedule), bluegamma.io (OIS-implied probabilities, Oct 5), mpamag.com and Yahoo Finance Canada (forecaster calls, Oct 1–2), dgwatt0801.substack.com (Sep 22), CNBC / Gulf News (Brent, Oct 5).